Figure 1, 20 16-20 18 diesel wholesale price trend chart.
Source: Longzhong Information
According to the data analysis of Longzhong, in the first half of 20 18, the price of main diesel oil in China showed a trend of first restraining and then rising. The semi-annual average price of diesel oil in 20 18 was 6523 yuan/ton, which was 995 yuan/ton higher than that in 20 17, with an increase of/kloc-. The main reason for the increase is that the crude oil rose greatly in 20 18, once breaking through the $70 mark. At the end of June 20 18, the WTI rose to $ 74. 15, while at the end of June 20 17, the increase rate was as high as $30, which led to the refinery.
The state has issued a three-year action plan to "defend the blue sky", and some non-compliant diesel resources have been suppressed, and the price of gasoline and diesel may remain high.
The high domestic diesel price is driven by demand or is there a price but no market? Let's find out through the demand of various provinces and cities:
Figure 2. Proportion of domestic diesel consumption demand
Unit: Yuan/ton
Source: Longzhong Information
As can be seen from Figure 2 above, the proportion of domestic diesel consumption demand shows that in 20 17, there were * * * provinces and cities with total consumption of refined oil above 12 million tons in China, and among the ten provinces and cities with diesel consumption above 5 million tons, six provinces and cities were located along the coast, and four were located in East China: Shandong, Jiangsu and Shanghai.
Figure 3. Proportion of Domestic Diesel Consumption Demand
Source: Longzhong Information
As shown in Figure 3 above, the demand of domestic provinces and cities is uneven. The planned volume of Qingdao's main business this month has been completely completed, and the oil output of Tai 'an CNPC has been affected due to the rectification of the oil depot, with a completion rate of less than 30%. There is still a gap in the completion rate of Jiangsu Sinopec's planned quantity, which is about 70%-90%. Jiangsu CNPC has cut the task quantity, while southern Jiangsu has overfulfilled it, while northern Jiangsu still has a deficit. The total task of Zhejiang's main provincial companies has basically tied. The completion progress of the main monthly plan is different. So is there a considerable profit in diesel retail?
Figure 4, Diesel Retail Profit Trend Chart
Unit: Yuan/ton
Source: Longzhong Information
It can be seen from the diesel retail profit chart that in July of 20 18, the comprehensive profit of China gas station and the average retail profit of diesel 136 1 yuan/ton decreased by 3. 16% from the previous month. During the month, the retail price was lowered, but the wholesale price rose one after another, and the price difference between diesel wholesale and retail narrowed, resulting in a decline in profits.
Retail profits are declining, so is there any arbitrage space for diesel import and export profits? See Figure 4 below, Analysis of Diesel Import and Export Arbitrage:
Figure 5. Arbitrage chart of diesel oil import and export Unit: RMB/ton
Source: Longzhong Information
In July, the average loss per ton of diesel oil imported from Singapore in China was 13.83 yuan, which was 56.7 yuan/ton lower than that in June 20 18. The average loss per ton of diesel oil exported from South China port to Singapore was 287.58 yuan, which was 13.5 yuan/year higher than that in June 20 18.
On the import side, the price of diesel in Singapore increased, while the price of domestic diesel increased simultaneously, which narrowed the loss of import profit. On the export side, the wholesale price of domestic diesel oil has increased, while the price of diesel oil in Singapore has increased simultaneously, which has increased the loss of export income.
On the whole, the problem of excess domestic resources is still outstanding, mainly manifested in the expansion of refining capacity, and the launch of alternative energy sources such as new energy sources has led to a continuous slowdown in diesel demand growth.