One, the crazy hog price rebound
Why do you want to use the word rebound to describe the rising trend of hog prices? Because this surge in hog prices is really caused by the rebound in hog prices. China's hog prices into 2021 began to shock downward, late with the gradual recovery of hog production capacity, hog prices fell more and more until the beginning of October, hog prices are still a market plunge, even if the October National Day holiday comes, hog prices still did not usher in the seasonal rebound. The hog industry was a flop, the average price of foreign three yuan broke 5 probe 4, local fat pigs even once fell to two three yuan a catty, a pig loss of nearly one thousand yuan, pig farmers can be said to have entered the darkest moment!
And the reason for the super-long decline in pig prices, mainly due to the recovery of production capacity, imported frozen meat inventory is higher, coupled with the market consumption downturn, the white pork trading is not fast, the slaughterhouse price pressures increase the mood, triggering the breeding end of the centralized selling, and ultimately the formation of the situation of the pig price all the way to defeat. However, woe is me, after the crazy sell-off, but also to the pig price rebound rise buried the ambush.
With hog prices bottoming out, the pork market ushered in a wave of price reductions, the average price of domestic pork down to the era of ten yuan, and many pork even fell to six or seven yuan a catty, the emergence of the low price effect of pork, a great boost to people's pork consumption. Superimposed on the impact of cold air in the north, the weather in many places ushered in the cooling, the market pork consumption sharp rise, with the breeding end of the anti-price selling, led to the rebound of the pig price market rise.
As of October 25, the national average price of foreign three yuan has broken through the 16 yuan mark, the market butchery offer 16.19 yuan / kg, compared with yesterday's big rise of 1.05 yuan, up 3.1 yuan / kg, the price of hog quotes surging, many pig prices broke 8 rushed to 9, hog farmers have ushered in a long time pulling the level of profit and loss, the market rose with a touch of the sky, the signs of a fly.
Two, from the rebound to the surge, pig prices in the end experienced what?
This round of pig prices rebound behind the rise, the industry generally agreed that the main 3 aspects caused by a consumption stimulus, and the previous seasonal consumption is different, this round of pork consumption growth is rapid, especially the three or four cities pork consumption increment is amazing, data show that last week, Beijing, Shanghai, some of the first-tier cities, pork sales increased by 1 to 2%, and in the third-tier cities as well as rural areas, pork sales even doubled 3 to 5 times.
This is that there are pork price reduction factors, but also the weather cooling factors, with the rapid decline of the weather in the north, many areas of the enema hot consumer impulse. Of course, which does not exclude the speculative psychology of market speculation. Pig prices fell to six or seven yuan a catty, obviously has fallen below the cost of breeding, late with the rebound of the market, some of the lobbyist speculators generally believe that pork prices hit rock bottom, late rebound is coming, a time to invest in the bottom is also hot, from last week's hog futures, the emergence of the stock price soaring, you can see the market for the market for the price of pigs in the aftermath of the bullish how strong the expectations.
And most importantly, hog prices have just experienced the darkest hour, the market cattle and pigs selling just ended the tail end of the market pork consumption of the sharp increase in the fat pig this is not abundant in the pig market short board reappeared. Consumption enhancement, large pigs in short supply, high pig prices, breeding end of the anti-price mentality gradually strengthened, large pigs to pull the market price of standard pigs crazy, the market is also higher and higher, the original seller's market, with the emergence of tight supply of hogs, but also towards the buyer's market, the higher the price, the more reluctant pig farmers are willing to fence, the reduction in the fence to promote the price of pigs market soaring.
Three, how long can the rise in hog prices last?
After many rounds of hog prices rose, the current market average price of hogs has returned to the 8 yuan mark, local areas because of the tight supply, resistance to sell even broke through the 9 yuan a catty, fatal is that the current hog prices rose trend is still unabated, there are signs of breaking 9 punch 10 a rise in the end. Is the price of hogs so quickly into a new round of upward cycle?
In this regard, industry insiders said that the current rise in pig prices is just a stage of bottoming out rebound, capacity elimination has not completely bottomed out, it is difficult to continue to rise in pig prices. On the one hand, the domestic hog production capacity is still maintaining a relatively fast rate of growth, the market hogs are not in short supply, once the price of hogs rose to expectations, the breeding end of the anti-price selling loosened, the number of pens to ease, then the price of hogs will inevitably fall back,
On the other hand, the consideration of the trend of late hogs can not just look at the surface of the market, the breeding sows of the stock of changes in the number of, and an important indicator of the future trend of the price of hogs up or down. The first two years of hog prices rose sharply behind, from 18 years of swine fever epidemic, as well as environmental protection ban, hog prices plummeted triggered by pig farmers focused on fleeing, breeding sows fell to the freezing point, resulting in a long period of time after the market market hog supply is in a tight state, which is the first two years of the hog price is difficult to fall back to the root cause.
And now with nearly two years of capacity restoration, breeding sows, hog inventory has returned to normal levels. Although the downturn in the previous period of the hog market, promote the elimination of pig farmers intensified, the increase in the number of breeding sows appeared to decline from the previous year. But in fact, the current breeding sows still account for a disproportionate share of the stock, large pig enterprises and pig farmers out of most of the inefficient poor quality breeding sows.
According to statistical data, the number of breeding sows in the country at the end of the third quarter was 44.59 million, a year-on-year increase of 16%, compared with the second quarter, a decrease of 0.23%, and the proportion of binary sows increased to 70-80%, that is, although the breeding sow inventory has declined, but the proportion of high-quality sows in the inventory has increased a lot of piglet supply capacity has not been weakened by a lot, which will let the market price of hogs a lot of uncertainty. The company's website has a lot of uncertainty about the price of hogs in the future.
Four, 2 things to be vigilant!
Now the worry is not that the price of hogs rose more or less, but whether the price of hogs will continue to rise. Behind the strong rebound, there is also a buried crisis that we can not see!
1, pig prices after the surge may bring the "Spring Festival pit". This round of pig price rise and fall process has two obvious characteristics is a price rise early, a price rise fierce. Early price increases because of the meat price plunge triggered by the "low-priced effect", coupled with the weather turned cool, promoting bacon, sausage season comes early, although the short term is conducive to lift the rebound of the price of pigs, but in the long run, the emergence of consumption in advance through the capital is likely to weaken the Chinese New Year's pork consumption is also expected.
And behind the fierce price hike does not exclude the market speculation as well as the breeding end of the anti-price selling. Butcher enterprises in the first price pressure less than two days on the market rebound, indicating that the pig farmers selling mentality has been completely driven, although the short-term resistance to selling fueled the price of hogs further up. But also exacerbated the aftermarket hog sales pressure, the market is so big, consumption was consumed in advance, but the capacity to delay the growth, everyone is optimistic about the Spring Festival hog price quotations, once the pig farmers Spring Festival focused on the outbreak of the outbreak, then the risk of falling hog prices will also increase the extension.
2, the bottom of the cycle or extended. Pork period is a unique phenomenon of hog prices, prices rise and fall changes will also appear with the fluctuations of the hog cycle of certain changes, usually, a complete hog cycle for 3 to 4 years time, since 2003, China a **** experienced 5 rounds of hog cycle, each hog cycle will appear a certain market bottom and market highs, so the market has a clear speculative psychology.
The current round of pig cycle started in April 2018, according to the law of time, the new round of pork period will also come randomly, especially the recent rapid pull up of the pig price plunge, but also to the market has created a favorable signal, it is easy to let everyone on the rise of the price of pigs to produce a kind of prejudgement. But it is important to know that the biggest difference between this round of pig cycle and the past is that the industry in a very short period of time from the era of high profitability into the depth of the loss, and quickly pulled up from the bottom of the price valley to stop the decline in profit and loss.
Behind such a big rise and fall turns out to be that the market is not completely dematerialized, breeding sows dematerialization is not yet complete, a new round of restocking wave has been sniffing the wind. It is worth noting that, after the late October hog prices continued to rise, pig farmers piglet restocking enthusiasm gradually increased, especially the phenomenon of purchasing small sows also increased, the entire sow reserve force can not be ignored. If this goes on, the sow production capacity of the previous period will soon go up again, further prolonging the downward cycle of the bottom of the pig price.
So I personally believe that although the price of pigs is still continuing to rebound, the market also has the possibility of further high, but the market shortage of pigs is not obvious, the price of pigs basically does not exist in the sky, in addition, we should also be alert to a series of hidden dangers brought about by the rapid increase in pig prices, pig farmers should not be over-ambitious, in the rebound of the price of pigs, but also to maintain a normal pace of the slaughter, to avoid the appearance of the late rush back to the fall. What do you think about this? Welcome to discuss.