Increased supply will lower the price.
In the composition of CPI data in May, the most striking thing is the trend of food prices.
From the ring comparison, the prices of eggs, pork and fresh vegetables decreased by 4. 1%, 2.9% and 6.2% respectively. Compared with the same period of last year, it decreased by 16.8%, 12.8% and 6.3% respectively. The impact of the three items on CPI decreased by about 0.24 percentage points from the previous month, and decreased by about 0.6 1 percentage point year-on-year.
The Ministry of Commerce analyzed at the press conference on the 8th that the main reason for the price drop of this round of meat, eggs and vegetables was the increase in supply. Take the pig market as an example. In the first quarter of this year, pork production and pig slaughter both showed positive growth for the first time since 20 15. In the 22nd week of 20 17 (May 29th to June 4th), the average weekly price of pork was 20.34 yuan per kilogram, down 24.6% year-on-year.
The decline in the price of meat, eggs and vegetables is considered to be the main reason for the low CPI operation in May. Wang, an associate researcher at the Institute of Finance and Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences, told this reporter that the overall trend of CPI this year is similar to that in previous years. After the Spring Festival, the growth rate has declined, and the real increase will not begin until the third quarter. The main factor affecting the trend is also the seasonal fluctuation of food prices.
In addition, among the year-on-year CPI increase of 1.5% in May, the hikes of price changes last year were obvious, accounting for about 1.0 percentage points, and the new price increase factors accounted for about 0.5 percentage points. Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher at the Bank of Communications Financial Research Center, analyzed that the hikes in June will reach the highest point of the year. It is expected that CPI will continue to rise year-on-year, and the overall trend during the year is high in the middle and low at both ends.
From the perspective of PPI, the chain continued to decline in May. Among the 40 major industries surveyed, the prices of products in 20 industries decreased month-on-month, increasing by 6 from last month, including ferrous metal mining and non-ferrous metal smelting. Among the 5.5% year-on-year increase, the hikes of price changes last year were about 4.5 percentage points, and the new price increase factors were about 1.0 percentage points.
The service has become "expensive", highlighting the transformation.
In the CPI data in May, another outstanding performance was the rise in service prices.
On a year-on-year basis, the price of medical care rose by 5.9%, the price of education services rose by 3.3%, the price of housing rose by 2.5%, and the price of transportation rose by 2.3%.
According to Wang's analysis, the service price shows a sustained and moderate upward trend, which is more obvious since 20 14 and 20 15. However, due to its small proportion in CPI, the power to promote prices is limited. However, with the change of residents' consumption structure, the demand for services such as education and medical care has gradually become rigid, and prices will continue to rise moderately in the future.
In May, the core CPI excluding food and energy increased by 2. 1% year on year. Liu Xuezhi believes that the rise of core CPI is related to economic restructuring. The reduction of the working population and the upgrading of household consumption will bring about an increase in service demand, which will lead to an increase in service prices. Some experts have suggested that in the future, it is necessary to meet the needs of transformation and provide more public goods such as medical care and education.
Regarding the trend of PPI, Wang believes that the price increase is more obvious than the new demand. Of course, the decline in PPI growth is affected by many factors, such as the manufacturing cycle. Enterprises generally do not invest heavily in the middle of the year, but tend to replenish their inventory at the beginning of the year. However, from the current situation, the manufacturing industry is not completely out of the predicament, and the future investment demand trend remains to be seen.
The downward trend will continue.
Will the price of meat, eggs and vegetables related to the popular table continue to decline?
According to the analysis of the Ministry of Commerce, it is expected that the domestic supply of live pigs and pork will increase steadily in the second half of the year, and the overall price will show a downward trend; There is sufficient supply in the egg market in the near future, and it is expected that the price of eggs will stabilize and rebound after autumn; In the coming months, the overall price of vegetables will continue to fall.
Looking at the CPI and PPI data in May and1-May, the overall stable operation of prices this year has almost become a * * * knowledge.
Zhao Xijun, deputy dean of the School of Finance and Finance of Renmin University of China, believes that in the short term, there is still downward pressure on the price of meat, eggs and vegetables, and prices will not rise sharply; In the long run, non-food prices will continue to rise, commodity prices will decline steadily, energy prices will not rise too fast, and prices are expected to remain stable.
Liu Xuezhi believes that the service price has risen, but it has been offset by the decline in economic demand and the rise in food prices. There was neither inflationary pressure nor deflation risk during the year.
Wang said that since the beginning of this year, the price trend has been moderate, and the previous worries about economic stagflation can basically be lifted. The national economy does not need to operate under pressure, and the macro-policy has obtained good supporting conditions. "Both monetary policy and fiscal policy can better support supply-side structural reforms, such as investing more money in high-tech industries and dual-innovation fields; Efforts will be made to reduce the cost of the real economy and encourage financial funds to enter the real economy. "
However, experts also reminded that it is necessary to pay close attention to price changes at home and abroad, and commodities are obviously affected by international price changes, so there should be an early warning mechanism.
The above content is quoted from People's Daily-People's Daily Overseas Edition.
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