In 20021year, the main sugar chain fluctuated upward, with an annual increase of 1007 yuan/ton (+19.52%), and three bands appeared in * *.

The first wave of the market showed a volatile trend as a whole. This band was just around the Spring Festival, with pre-holiday stocking support and sugar carry-over pressure, followed by centralized squeezing pressure and unclear license support.

The second wave of the market showed an overall upward trend. Most of the rising markets this year appeared at this stage, and there was a * * * vibration with the outer disk at this stage. The stronger the outer disk, the stronger the inner disk, until the inside and outside were upside down.

The third wave of the market as a whole showed a volatile trend. At this stage, the outer disk kept hitting the pressure of 20 cents/pound above, and then the inner disk fluctuated with the interval.

Second, the spot market: the shock rose.

The annual increase reached 8 10 yuan/ton (+15.58%), which was slightly lower than that of futures (+19.52%). Spot quotation is synchronized with futures, and there are three bands in the whole year.

Chapter II International Market

1. Brazil: It may become the main contradiction of the market.

According to the latest data from UNICA, the output in south-central Brazil may reach 32 million tons, down 6180,000 tons (-15.72%) year-on-year.

In Brazil, the new year and the 2022/23 crop season need to pay attention to the impact of the general election on the real; Whether the weather disaster can implement the expected reduction of production and really reduce the global trade flow; The joint influence of crude oil price and Brazilian gasoline policy on ethanol price leads to the fluctuation of sugar alcohol ratio; The situation of epidemic control in Brazil and so on. On the whole, we think that the situation in Brazil will be the main contradiction in the international market in the new year.

Second, India: the balance between supply and demand

India's production and sales data has not changed much as a whole, and it is slightly loose.

We believe that India's exports will continue, but the export volume has decreased compared with the previous year (7.2 million tons).

III. Global: Balance of trade flows

According to USDA data, the global ending inventory data is further lowered.

On the whole, according to the reports in the past month or two, mainstream institutions basically believe that there is a gap in the global sugar market.

In 20021year, China surpassed Indonesia and became the largest buyer in the world.

According to USDA's estimation, the import volume of the two major buyers in the world may decrease by1250,000 tons in 2022.

According to USDA's estimation, the export trade flows of the three major exporting countries are basically balanced compared with the previous year, with a slight decrease of 350,000 tons. And basically matches the import trade flow.

Chapter III Domestic Market

I. Output: slightly reduced.

We believe that the output data is basically the winning numbers of the market (although it has not been squeezed), and it is unlikely to become the main contradiction between supply and demand.

II. Imports: In principle, keep the total balance.

1, import inside and outside the quota

In terms of import in 2022, judging from the spirit conveyed by the just-concluded1February 2 1 day working meeting of raw sugar processing committee, the principle of import in 2022 is to maintain a total balance.

According to the import volume over the years, we found that the import volume after June 20021year increased greatly compared with the same period over the years. According to market information, this year's license