As mentioned in the previous article, the rising factors include the influence of emotions such as production capacity and reluctance to sell in the market, and the market is generally optimistic for the second half of the year, especially after the third quarter. Under the influence of many factors, it is generally optimistic about the subsequent market changes.
As for the drop in pig prices, what are the factors and how will the subsequent "shock" of the market be affected?
1, analysis of pig market changes
For the early pig market, especially before June, under the influence of the drop in pig prices, farmers suffered serious losses, and many farmers gradually reduced their enthusiasm for breeding, which led to a decline in production capacity, and the overall pig stock also decreased compared with the same period.
Faced with such changes, the state has issued corresponding policies to ensure the stability of the pig market, especially under the influence of central purchasing and storage, the pig market has gradually stabilized.
However, on the other hand, due to the high increase in the price of pigs in a single day, the price of pork in many markets has been gradually driven. Compared with the previous price of pigs around 10 yuan, it has now directly increased to 18 yuan per catty.
According to relevant data, the pork consumption index rose by 2.9%, which played a key role in the consumption increase of the whole market.
2. Analysis of pig price "shock"
For the price of live pigs in July, it can be described as "ups and downs", with large fluctuations.
It is largely related to the role of the market.
The rising trend of the pig market is high, and the momentum is not diminished. The national policy began to regulate the market to seek a good balance point, and the shortage pig market was adjusted.
In view of the subsequent fluctuations, what changes will be made, mainly consisting of the following points.
First of all, from the overall forecast, there will be no major changes in the decline of pig prices, and the overall situation will be slightly stable.
This is mainly because the second half of the year is the peak season for pork consumption, especially in the fourth quarter, the consumption of enema and bacon will increase, which will play a certain role in stimulating the rise of pig prices and maintaining stability.
Secondly, in terms of market productivity, the current stock of pigs is relatively stable, and the recent increase in pig prices will drive some farmers to carry out pen-pressing and secondary fattening. For the subsequent pig market, the supply side is relatively stable, and the cost of the breeding side is actually increasing, especially for small-scale breeding retail investors, there will be certain risks in pen-pressing, so the phenomenon of secondary fattening and pen-pressing will not last long.
Therefore, on the whole, although the pig price fluctuates, it is in a reasonable normal range as a whole, and the pig price will remain stable at that time.
3. Follow-up analysis of hog price fluctuation.
For the whole change of pig price, the price in the second half of the year will rise to a certain extent compared with that in the first half of the year, which is normal, but the market will have different voices in what range it will be maintained.
Some people think that the price of live pigs will rebound to a certain profit range in the second half of the year, while others think it will appear under the cost line.
In this regard, personally, in the case of high breeding cost, the market profit margin is depressed, and the overall follow-up pig price will remain at around 10 yuan per catty, which is less likely to rise or fall.
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