From the weekly price point of view, the national live pig price rose continuously 1 1 week, with a cumulative increase of 8.75 yuan/kg, with an increase of 30.7%. As of 1 week in August, the price of live pigs was 37.24 yuan/kg.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in July this year, China's food prices rose by 13.2% year-on-year, of which pork prices rose by 85.7%.
From the weekly price point of view, the national live pig price rose continuously 1 1 week, with a cumulative increase of 8.75 yuan/kg, with an increase of 30.7%. As of 1 week in August, the price of live pigs was 37.24 yuan/kg.
Compared with the continuous decline in the first half of the year, pork prices have returned to the peak in the second half of the year. What is the reason for the soaring meat prices, and will the prices continue to rise in the second half of the year? The relevant state departments gave an authoritative response.
First, the reasons for the rise in pork prices
1, the amount of slaughter in the first half of the year decreased by nearly 20%.
According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the first half of 2020, there were 251030,000 live pigs in China, which was 62.43 million fewer than the same period of the previous year, down by 19.9%.
2. The flood season in the second half of the year affected the normal supply of the market.
This year's floods in southern China have played a significant role in raising pork prices.
The flood disaster destroyed some farms, resulting in a decrease in the number of live pigs, and also affected the transportation of live pigs.
With the arrival of superimposed high temperature weather, the cost of pork transportation and storage has increased, and suppliers have also taken the initiative to reduce the supply of pigs, which is an important driving force for the short-term rapid rise of pig prices.
Second, the second half of the pork price forecast
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, all localities are supplementing the production capacity of live pigs in time. According to the survey, the number of live pigs is increasing quarter by quarter. However, as the supply of live pigs is still in a tight balance, the high price of pigs will continue for some time. Generally speaking, it is unlikely that the price of pork will rise sharply.
Third, the pig breeding industry ushered in a golden period of development
On the one hand, the amount of slaughter in the first half of the year decreased year-on-year, and floods directly damaged some farms, which means that there is still a certain gap in the supply of live pigs.
On the other hand, according to the previous "pig cycle" law in China, because autumn and winter are the peak season for pork consumption, the demand for pork in the market tends to increase.
The second half of the year is still the golden development period of pig breeding.
Fourth, the pig breeding industry model has gradually changed.
The outbreak of African swine fever last year, coupled with the influence of COVID-19 this year, and the competitive advantage brought by industrialized and large-scale farming methods are attracting more large enterprises to expand the scale of farms and increase investment in feed, processing, cold chain and logistics.
At the same time, China is also supporting enterprises to expand pig production, especially guiding the industry to develop in the direction of industrialized breeding. For example, recently, financial departments or institutions in several provinces have issued corresponding support policies; Yunnan province has issued a policy to introduce high-quality improved pigs from abroad, and will give a one-time subsidy of 4000 yuan/head; For farms that meet the requirements of large-scale investment breeding and have investment assets of more than 5 million yuan, a one-time award will be given at 10% of the actual investment, with a maximum of 5 million yuan.
With the increase of investment in large-scale breeding by pig-raising enterprises and the encouragement and assistance of the state to the pig-raising industry, it is believed that China's pig-raising industry will accelerate into the era of scale and specialization.