The price of corn continues to rise. Not only do more enterprises take the initiative to raise prices, but the range of increase is also around 1 point.
Compared with the fierceness of corn and wheat, peanuts and soybeans are much worse. Peanuts have insufficient motivation to rise, and soybeans "enter the winter" in advance when they are cold. Let's look at the specific situation.
The price of wheat hit a new high. What does it mean to rise again?
It is understood that recently, Jin Xiyan, Qingdao, Shandong Province, offered wheat flour 1.66 yuan, Baixiang, Hebei Province, Wudeli Wheat 1.66 yuan, Xianyang, Shaanxi Province, Wudeli Wheat 1.67 yuan. With the wheat price reaching the highland of 1.67 yuan, the wheat price has also reached a new high in recent years.
The driving force for wheat prices to rise again comes from both ends of supply and demand. On the supply side, the production cost is high this year, and the willingness of grassroots farmers to hold prices has been relatively strong, while the cost of opening positions in the early stage of traders is high and the price requirements are relatively high.
On the consumption side, after the temperature drops, the improvement of flour demand drives the price of flour to rise, which in turn drives up the price of wheat.
In addition, the recent increase in corn prices is also an important reason for the increase in wheat prices.
So what does the skyrocketing wheat mean?
1 means that wheat prices still have the potential to rise.
We mentioned earlier that the recovery of flour demand is the key node of wheat price. If it can rise further, then the price of wheat has the potential to continue to rise.
2. It means that the acceptance of high-priced wheat by enterprises has increased.
Recently, Keming Video mentioned when answering investors' questions on the interactive platform that the company predicted that the wheat price in the fourth quarter of 2022 may rise compared with the same period, and enterprises have made preparations for the high wheat price, which is conducive to the continuous rise of wheat prices.
3. At present, the temporary storage of wheat in China is 40,000 tons each time, which can basically be sold. In this case, the price of wheat will rise, which means that the release of temporary storage wheat has little impact on the market, which is conducive to the sustained high operation of wheat prices.
Corn keeps rising, and there is sufficient momentum for subsequent rise.
After the new season corn went on the market, although there was a short downward adjustment, the upward trend remained unchanged, especially in the near future.
The quotations of deep processing enterprises in Shandong are raised by 0.5- 1 point, some enterprises in North China are raised by 1 point, and some enterprises in Northeast China are directly raised by 1.5- 1.85 point.
The rise in corn prices is mainly due to several logics:
1, the traffic is not smooth, and the circulation of the corn market is declining. It is understood that from118+08-165438+123 October, the number of vehicles arriving in the morning of Shandong deep processing enterprises dropped from 607 to 55, so it is not surprising that enterprises take the initiative to raise prices.
2. Although the price of aquaculture products has been falling continuously in recent days, the profit of aquaculture is still rich, the aquaculture capacity is still growing, and the demand for corn is at a high level.
3. The rising price of corn further stimulated farmers' bullish reluctance to sell.
4. Recently, the rainy and snowy weather in Northeast China increased, which affected the corn yield at the grass-roots level.
At present, people are more worried about the improvement of the epidemic situation. After the transportation is resumed, there will be a wave of centralized supply in the market, which will lead to a sharp drop in corn prices.
Undeniably, the increase in corn prices is related to inconvenient transportation, but there is no need to worry too much. The basic logic is as follows:
1, corn yield reduction is expected to increase.
2. The prices of corn substitutes such as wheat and imported grains are at a high level.
3. The quantity of imported corn is at a low level.
4, the breeding profit is good, and the demand for corn is large.
It is expected that after the transportation is resumed, the corn price will drop slightly, but the upward momentum is sufficient, and the fundamentals of the increase will not change.
Peanut has insufficient upward motivation
According to the agency's forecast, the total peanut output in China this year will drop to14.4 million tons, down 23.4% from the previous year.
At the same time, the number of imported peanuts has also dropped significantly. 2021-In August 2022, China's total import of peanut kernels was 580,000 tons, down 44% compared with the same period last year.
Since the output has decreased and the import volume has also decreased, why is the upward momentum of peanuts insufficient?
1. The listed price of peanuts opened higher this year. In addition, driven by the price of soybean meal some time ago, the price of peanut meal rose steadily, the oil factory returned to profitability, and the increase in purchasing enthusiasm prompted the price of peanuts to reach a high level.
With the arrival of imported soybeans in Hong Kong, the price of soybean meal fell, and the price of peanuts was also implicated.
2. Affected by the epidemic, the consumption of catering industry was sluggish, and the recovery of peanut oil consumption was less than expected.
3. The acquisition strategy of the oil plant has changed from speculative hoarding to just replenishing the warehouse.
When soybeans are cold, they "enter the winter".
Some time ago, the price of soybean meal rose sharply, which made soybean scenery infinite. However, with the increase in the number of imported soybeans arriving in Hong Kong, soybeans were beaten back to their original shape, and even "entered the winter" in advance when they were cold, and traders were forced to take the initiative to lower the purchase price.
There are several reasons for the decline in soybean prices:
1, the consumption of bean products market is sluggish, on the one hand, it is impacted by the centralized listing of low-priced vegetables, on the other hand, it is affected by the epidemic.
2. The operating rate of soybean protein deep processing enterprises decreased, the profits of oil plants tightened and the demand weakened.
3. The price of soybeans purchased by the State Reserve was lowered, and new soybeans were stopped in some areas, which weakened the support for soybean prices.
Next, domestic soybeans will be under the double pressure of imported soybeans and cheap vegetables, making it more difficult for soybean prices to rise.