Reasons for Zheng Sugar soaring: (repost)
1. Sales in the production area of the sales area is generally weak, Nanning spot price of 3590 yuan / ton.
2. Thailand raw sugar import cost of 3388 yuan / ton, domestic spot appreciation of 203 yuan / ton.
3. According to Brazil unica, as of mid-June, the south-central region has used 55% of the crushed sugarcane volume for sprinkler production, which is higher than the former expected projections.
4. The global liquidity glut, soaring stock markets, skyrocketing commodity prices, and signs of inflation are showing, but sugar prices are way down. There is no shortage of funds for buyers in the sugar market, what is lacking is confidence in the market.
5. Market analysts believe that in the market waiting for more optimistic than May, the June sales data at the same time, from the recent meeting rumors can also smell the relevant parties are likely to once again organize a more significant benefits to stimulate the sugar market. If there is any change in the news, the possibility of favorable is quite large.
6. Brazil, India's raw sugar production increase has been basically channeled, the Brazilian side of the main conversion to alcohol, the Indian side of the main conversion to buffer stocks. China's national reserve in the face of the current domestic sugar market situation is unlikely to turn a blind eye. In fact, the Chinese reserves Yuan Yongkang's June 23 speech may suggest that the State Reserve will do something later, if the local policy in Guangxi is in trouble.
Valid information
1. Mr. Yuan Yongkang, director of Huashang Reserve, delivered a speech on June 23 (Nanning) sugar futures investment forum on the regulation of the state reserve and the fluctuation of sugar prices: ① this year's storage has been tested, will be out of the announcement method, enterprises and the system a link can be delivered sugar to get money. ② At present, the national treasury a sugar are not. This year, we must find ways to store sugar. Finished sugar should account for 70%, 30% of raw sugar, or 60% of finished sugar, raw sugar accounted for 40%. (3) the size of the reserve is small, the current scale of 1.6 million tons, the size of the national reserve should be more than 2 million tons, in order to really play the role of the reservoir.
2. June 26 position structure on the long unfavorable situation has not been improved. However, if the current bottom (or phase bottom), then the situation is not serious. Long and short sides have three points worth noting: ① that night the foreign exchange market shows the bottom of the raw sugar signal further strengthened; ② Guangxi local policy firm, the state released the signal of possible storage; ③ this week is the last week of June, the weekend or near the end of the weekend, the June sales of sugar data is clear. The market is expected to later consumption data is favorable.
3. As of June 22nd week, Zheng Sugar registered warehouse receipts 7295, an increase of 485 last week. Effective forecast 400, last week 1085. SR707 short hedge 1055, the same as last week. SR801 short hedge 6684, last week 5684.
4. Sugar forward wholesale market has upward signs of good, short-term indicators also show that the rebound of the Zhengzhou sugar is not yet over. If the main contract of raw sugar in October stabilized above 9 cents, coupled with domestic policy firm and summer sugar consumption data bullish expectations, Zheng Sugar is expected to use the time for space to stabilize 3600 and 3650 and the formation of a stage reversal. Here, the stabilization of raw sugar is the key premise of domestic sugar.
5. The position structure shows that the Zhengzhou sugar short highly concentrated, the main short and retail long confrontation. However, if the current bottom, this situation is not serious. After the development of the trend may repeat the curve to save the scene, like when the heavy (SR709) on the light (SR801), the bulls may bypass the SR801 and attack SR805.
6. As of the week of June 19, the raw sugar fund net short position of 8,708, last week's net position of 9,069 hands. The total position has continued to decline since the beginning of June, down 9,954 hands on the week.
7. Brazil's south-central region in order to meet the strong domestic demand, the opening of the crushing has been the focus of production on alcohol. Brazil will use 57.3% of the sugarcane for alcohol production and another 42.7% for sugar production. This compares to 47.6% and 52.3% of cane used for sugar and alcohol production, respectively, in the previous crushing season.
8. Brazilian Sugar Industry Union (UNICA) said on this Thursday, as of June 1, the 2007/08 season in Brazil's central and southern regions of the sugar production decreased to 3.6 million tons, or 10.5%, compared with the same period last year's level of 425,500 tons. UNICA said this year, so far, per ton of sugar cane sugar production also fell to 51.2 kg / ton from 57.9 kg / ton a year ago. /tonne to 51.2 kg/tonne. In contrast, alcohol production per ton of sugarcane increased to 42 liters per ton from 38.9 liters per ton last year.
9. The Indian government announced an upward revision of sugar buffer stocks to 5 million tons. Currently Indian exporters are suspending dumping of sugar into the international market.
10. engaged in commodity trading has been more than 25 years of global commodity company president Greg? Smith recently said in an interview, with rising oil prices to stimulate increased demand for ethanol, it usually takes 12-18 months to consume the excess sugar stocks, will now soon be consumed. The market's undervalued white sugar price is expected to double by the end of the year, possibly rising to 20 cents per pound. The hedge fund firm has $210 million in assets under management.
11. India has temporarily withdrawn from international markets. Russia will raise import tariffs on raw sugar starting next year, which will spur importers to buy Brazilian raw sugar in advance. In the previous few days of decline, prices have fallen below the cost line of some Brazilian sugar mills. Market rumors sugar-producing countries began to switch to other crops.
12. Currently U.S. raw sugar futures are building a bottom, but it is not certain whether this bottom is a small bottom or a big bottom. For a large bottom, more oscillations are needed to complete, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted that the price of raw sugar in recent months to 8 cents.
13. On the morning of June 21, CCTV One broadcast that with the warming of global temperatures, this year's scorching heat has arrived, and this year's scorching heat is the hottest in three decades.
14. At present, the domestic sugar market stage inventory pressure is relatively large, due to the Guangxi government to support the sale price of 3600, the short term sugar prices are up and down dilemma.
15. Although sugar imports in May increased more than last year, but the sugar quota issued is limited. Apart from this, there is no change in domestic fundamentals.
16. The financial situation is unfavorable for the bulls. Now the most critical to the parties is the stabilization of raw sugar prices, only the stabilization of raw sugar prices, the parties can calmly wait for the release of the June sales data. Otherwise, we can not rule out the possibility of a crash. Whether the recent plunge in agricultural products will be contagious to the Zhengzhou sugar market, it is worth paying attention to.
17. Domestic fundamentals have not changed, and the current year's consumption data remains favorable. There are news and observations, 3600 yuan / ton price, Guangxi sugar enterprises micro-profit or loss, Zhanjiang part of the sugar mill loss. Zhengzhou sugar trend deviates from the domestic fundamentals and policy.
18. The current trend of raw sugar has become a key factor in the stability of the domestic sugar market. If raw sugar continues to adjust downward, the stability of the domestic sugar market needs the local government in Guangxi to come up with more firm storage measures and its practical action, otherwise only waiting for the national reserve policy action.
19. Unfavorable data for the bulls is the continued appreciation of the yuan and imports in May (190,000 tons) much higher than the same period last year (nearly 60,000 tons). The stabilization of raw sugar prices for the domestic sugar market out of weakness can not be ignored.
20. Guangxi Sugar Association Secretary General on the Guangxi storage situation to accept the sugar website interview, said the Guangxi government has adopted a dynamic storage strategy. This means that Guangxi storage of sugar does not necessarily have to be sold in the current season. At the same time, also revealed that on June 18, the whole Guangxi sugar enterprises sold 50,000 tons of sugar a day, of which two groups sold more than 23,700 tons, before the end of June basically can be part of this year's increase in production (1.71 million tons) digested, Guangxi June sales must be a substantial increase over May.
21. Some market participants observed that the sugar end-user inventory is very small, most of the purchase with the sale, and take the joint sale of goods. Due to unstable sugar prices, the intermediary cisterns are not functioning.
22. CRB even index hit a record high, international agricultural products rose sharply, continue to bullish, the U.S. crude oil index exceeded 70 U.S. dollars / barrel. International raw sugar continued to fall and excessive deviation from the surrounding environment.
23. The market is expected this year, India's sugar production will also increase by 80-100 million tons, reaching 27.8-28 million tons, sugar surplus reached 8 million tons. The Indian government plans to increase the sugar reserves from 3 million tons to 5 million tons. Indian Sugar Export Corporation (ISEC) said that below 10 cents the company does not export white sugar.
24. Brazil plans to raise the alcohol concentration in gasoline from 23% to 25% in early July, and international analysts say the 2% increase is equivalent to offsetting 700,000-800,000 tons of sugar production.
25. June 14 Guangxi Sugar Association expanded meeting of the chairman of the board of directors through the websites to indicate the authority and accuracy of the production and marketing data in Guangxi.
26. Guangxi 3600 below all sugar mills do not sell sugar, while 23 sugar mills in the online storage. This means that Guangxi may buy (storage) Yunnan sugar when sugar prices fell sharply, Guangxi has great confidence in the sugar market.
27. The current capital situation is unfavorable to the long side, the market will continue to test and challenge the determination and practical measures of Guangxi local government 3600 storage under the unstable psychological pressure.
28. According to the London June 13 news, the International Sugar Organization (1SO) a senior economist Sergey Gudoshnikov said on Wednesday, in the India export surplus and a large number of Brazilian supply of heavy pressure in the next few months, the price of raw sugar will fall to 8 U.S. cents a pound, and predicted that Brazilian obsolete sugar mills face production costs of more than 7 U.S. cents per pound.
29. The current domestic sugar price trend has deviated from the fundamental situation as seen in the current statistics, selling sugar trends and selling area inventories. At the same time, the domestic sugar trend has deviated from the policy situation. The reversal of this situation requires a process.
30. The financial side of the short-led to long dominated by an oscillating process, the oscillating process is a manifestation of the main funds short positions continue to decrease, while the long positions continue to increase. Recently, the main funds with a spot background in the reduction of short orders.
31. The industry analyzed that the marginal cost of the old Brazilian sugar mills at 6.5 cents a line, the new sugar mills at 8.5 cents a line, and that the Brazilian sugar mills will not not sell sugar because the price fell below the cost. Only first fell below the cost of production of Brazilian sugar mills, from the profit to inhibit the expansion of Brazilian sugar mills, in order to solve the current global problem of a large number of surplus.
32. Half of the national sugar production in Guangxi declared that at all costs to hold 3600 yuan / ton, and for the first time, plans to wholesale market storage, storage units, including the wholesale market membership of the 23 sugar enterprises. Industry insiders believe that Guangxi hopes that through online storage, can play a role in the sugar market.
33. For the sugar market ignoring the policy control continues to be weak, pessimistic atmosphere spread, the market is waiting for Guangxi how to "at all costs", waiting for Guangxi sugar storage second policy.
34. For Guangxi to increase the policy to support sugar prices, the market performance is flat: ① the market is in the retracement in the finishing, not ready to rise; ② the impact of the policy there is a time lag (the policy has not been understood by the market); ③ the market on the international trend of raw sugar worries. To the international raw sugar to stabilize, the policy is fully understood and Zheng Sugar adjustment to the end of the policy regulation and its strength is naturally reflected in the price.
35. Currently the market is in a period of transition between long and short power, domestic fundamentals will determine the trend of Zheng Sugar. More understanding of the meaning of the policy, more examination of the government in the macro-control as well as the effect.
36. When the focus of the market shifted to the demand side, Guangxi increased policy regulation, the recent sugar market is expected to come out of the bottom.
37. June 10 Guangxi Sugar Association held an emergency meeting: to ensure at all costs to stabilize the price of sugar at 3600 yuan / ton or more, and asked the sugar enterprises not to sell sugar below 3600 yuan / ton. Online storage of 300,000 tons of sugar, the government additional 50 million yuan of financial support, storage enterprises from the original eight increased to all sugar enterprises.
38. The market focus will shift to the demand side. Various demand factors will gradually be tapped and play a role. The impact of raw sugar on the domestic sugar market will gradually be faded out, Zheng Sugar will be a low open high, down less up more way out of the raw sugar trap.
39. In May, the country's cumulative sugar production of 11,948,600 tons (an increase of 35.55% over the same period last year), the cumulative sale of 7,840,100 tons of sugar (an increase of 33.47% over the same period last year), the rate of sale of sugar 65.62% (a decrease of 0.98% over the same period last year).
40. The new data on production and sales show that while production has increased significantly this year, sales have also increased equally dramatically, indicating the huge potential for domestic sugar consumption.
41. Domestic fundamentals determine the trend of Zheng Sugar. The market to time for space way to wait for May production and sales data out and international raw sugar stabilization. Every time raw sugar falls, the domestic disk will jump to a low opening, and then oscillate upward, down less up more form of market consolidation.
42. Guangxi Sugar Association Zhang Rubin believes that the current sales area inventory is relatively small, the current price in Guangxi than the last season and the beginning of the season lower than 1,000 yuan, while the price of pork led to the price of corn and starch sugar prices, the recent U.S. Department of Agriculture to China's sugar consumption growth to 7%, China's per capita consumption of sugar growth has great potential. These show that the late domestic sugar consumption demand is very large, Guangxi inventory of 2.495 million tons in the sale of no problem.
43. In May, Yunnan produced 1,783,400 tons of sugar, the cumulative sugar sales rate of 48.2%. It is 0.46% higher than the sugar sales rate of 43.6% in April.
44. Hundreds of factories are already producing ethanol in the U.S., which is expected to consume half of the world's corn in 2008. Nine states and three districts in India have ordered the use of gasoline blended with 5% ethanol. The Philippines has passed a bill planning to use ethanol as a transportation fuel. Thailand has decided to blend 10% ethanol into 91 gasoline sold starting in 2008.
45. Zheng Sugar bulls bypassed the near-month 709 short heavy handles, stationed in the far-month 801, in the policy support, to take the countryside surrounded by the city, the curve of the road to save the city. Tomorrow or next week SR709 will come out of the bandwagon, expected market upward.
46. India may consider raising alcohol in gasoline from the current 5% to 10%, the Indian oil minister said. Recently the head of the Brazilian Sugar Association proposed that the percentage of crops used in the production of alcohol will be increased to 62% from the current 51%.
47. International agricultural commodities are running on a bull run. International crude oil stays above $60. International raw sugar continues to fall with excessive deviation from the surrounding environment. This time, raw sugar broke 9 cents and fell quickly and sharply to 8.6 cents may mean that the bear market is coming to an end.
48. Recently, the head of the Brazilian Sugar Association proposed that the proportion of crops used in the production of alcohol will be increased from the current 51% to 62%. The European Bioethanol Fuel Association recently released information that European bioethanol fuel production reached 1.565 billion liters in 2006, up 71% from 913 million liters in 2005.
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Flowers Eggs Reply Time:07-07-06 11:40
Happy is not easy
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Add as Friend | Leave a Message Since the fall in late Feb. So many shortcomings, (almost every day there are new shortcomings), but sugar really fell? From 3800 to 3500 on this 300 - 350 points of amplitude, and the stock of sugar has been consumed 70% - 75%, there are 4 months to see the new sugar, domestic inflation in the spread of the scale is tilted to the long, but more sugar to be confirmed, then, the sugar will be outbreak before the only unilateral rolling short market, a handful of sugar can be profitable, and then down, that is, the most empty short also dare not look at! 3000 points below, the futures market is the extreme risk of the game, in the face of such a small risk of opportunity why not do?
Happy is not easy to announce loudly: Zheng Sugar short market since next Monday end !!!!
Reason: Rogers for more, foreign sugar will rise!
Rogers, an internationally renowned fund manager and investor, said he was selling Wall Street bank stocks because of a possible collapse in the housing market and suggested investing in the commodities market by buying sugar. Rogers has long been staunchly bearish on the commodities market and believes that rapid economic growth in Asia, particularly China, makes the region more attractive to investors than the United States or Europe.
Rogers founded the vaunted Quantum Fund in the 1970s with financial magnate Soros***. "Financial companies, stockbrokers, investment banks, I short all of these. I'm short financial services companies, mainly U.S. companies." After speaking to investors, Rogers also said there are "best" shorting opportunities in the U.S. financial sector.
"Problems in the housing market are going to be in the U.S. for a long time, probably more so than in other countries. But the extra portion of global economic growth is concentrated in the hands of Wall Street investment bankers, who have made huge fortunes, and the world should not develop in such a way."
Rogers also warned that Chinese stocks are overvalued after the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index accumulated more than 35 percent since the beginning of the year.
"I'm not buying Chinese stocks at the moment, but I'm not selling either." He added that if the stock market falls 40 to 50 percent, "I'm going to add to my position in a big way."
Rogers said his favored commodity investment target is agricultural commodities.
He said lead, after hitting record highs, is his least favored commodity. "That doesn't mean I'm dumping lead, I just mean I'm the least bullish on lead, sugar is 85% below its all-time highs and lead touched record highs ...... is up 600-700% over the last few years."
Jung Sugar continue to do more, the big opportunity to ignore the small pullback
Bulls set up, short-term adjustments, adjustments: 0801:3450\3421\3400\3385 (limit), you can not care about this dozens of points of adjustment, you can also do short-term high throwing low sucking, but be sure to do not forget that at the end of August to buy back, to do more, in September, must be launched. Wish more sugar brothers good luck! Now the sugar market is as follows: just start early it!!!!