There are two reasons for the continuous decline in pig prices after the spring of this year: First, overcapacity. In the periodic adjustment of pig production in 2009, the situation of pig overcapacity in China has not been fundamentally solved. Second, last year, the deep adjustment period of pig price was short, and the number of fertile sows was maintained at 48-49 million, accounting for more than 10% of the pig stock, and the pig production capacity was obviously large.
According to the analysis, due to the grain price increase, the current feeding cost has increased by 20% compared with last year, while the pig price has decreased by 10% compared with the second half of last year. "The continuous high price of corn is the main reason for the continuous decline of the ratio of pig to grain". In the case that most farmers are losing money, the government may start the frozen pork reserve plan in the near future, but the quantity and scope of the reserve are still unknown.
If the government does not start the purchasing and storage plan for the time being, the live pig market will gradually regain its vitality after the baptism of market fluctuations. "Even if the government does not start the purchasing and storage plan, the price of pigs will rise after mid-April."
Why in the middle of April? There are three reasons. First, the industry fluctuates, and the scale of some scale areas shrinks, resulting in a decrease in production capacity; Second, the economic recovery, many farmers are bound to go out to work and quit the pig industry; The consumption of fresh pork will pick up in March and April.