The actual situation of inflation may not be so high. Analyze the characteristics of various assets and the possible future situation.

Keywords: core inflation, year-end, houses, stocks, bonds, bitcoin

First, the real situation of inflation, to clarify misunderstandings, monetary policy is highly likely to be loose.

Again, there are some misunderstandings about inflation.

For example, everyone thinks that green onions have gone up, mutton has gone up, pork has gone up, and radishes have grown, and everyone will think that inflation is coming.

But the fluctuation of these things is very big, influenced by seasons, local supply and demand, and seasonal influence is also very big.

As I said, I have dealt with vegetable rice before, and I used to go to vegetable vendors every week to adjust the price. At that time, the price of vegetables fluctuated greatly. When garlic was expensive, it was seventeen or eighteen yuan, when it was cheap, it was a few cents or even a few cents. The price of vegetables is sometimes extreme, and it may be much worse in one day.

Inflation is a macro indicator, which refers to the overall and sustained rise of the price level. Moreover, all commodities are rising, which is called inflation.

If you want to look at inflation, then look at our consumer price index. In fact, this thing was deflationary last month, and after removing these foods, our core inflation rate is about 0.5%, which is actually close to deflation.

Also, don't include the house in inflation. The house is an asset price. You can integrate the bricks and stones in the house with inflation, but the house itself is an asset price. The rise in asset prices is not the same as inflation.

Before, a man of God argued with me that my explanation of inflation was confusing. Nima, this is not an explanation. This is the popularization of common sense. It's just that you have never seen the right thing. You took the wrong thing as right. I just told you what was in the book in plain Chinese, and I didn't give any explanation. Of course, you can invent an index yourself to overthrow other people's theories, and you can develop a methodology yourself. This is OK. I didn't say no, but you can do it.

I'm not saying that there is no risk of inflation. If money is released continuously, interest rates continue to fall, and we release more water, and production can't keep up, inflation will naturally occur. But now this is really not, and we have to continue to observe.

Let me put it this way. Many netizens said that the house price must be included. We need to discuss whether it is reasonable or unreasonable, because if you take the house price into inflation, if the whole world takes the house price into inflation, then the whole world will have inflation every year. Is it true that house prices also rose during the epidemic, which is also inflation, so we should raise interest rates sharply?

Many people say that things have gone up too much now. Well, we raise interest rates, we recover liquidity, we raise the deposit reserve ratio, and we take back money. Try what this society will look like.

It's always easy to scold, but it's very difficult to take responsibility when making decisions. We must balance the risks and consider the interests of the majority.

Therefore, I judge that the monetary policy next year will not be particularly tight, and the probability is relatively loose.

Second, the world is releasing water.

One of the biggest characteristics of this year is that the world is releasing water. I said that our country's monetary policy is still relatively normal, and we borrow more money by borrowing, which leads to more money.

That is to say, the credit currency lent by our country is to pay off debts. I have said this point many times in other articles. If you are interested, you can turn it over and have a look. Again, the borrowed money is new money, and the borrowed money is both debt and money, which can be used as money.

That is to say, the money lent by our country is to repay interest and principal and interest, and it has a binding ability.

The United States, on the other hand, directly expanded its central bank balance sheet. To put it bluntly, it means printing money directly, or even finding money from people through fiscal policy. This situation is even worse.

Other countries, for example, Japan has started expansionary fiscal and monetary policies for a long time.

At the beginning of this epidemic, the US dollar rose a lot, and the US dollar actually didn't fall much against other countries' currencies. Why? Because everyone is releasing water.

What will happen if everyone releases water and you don't? Your currency will appreciate greatly, and your export will be unprofitable in a short time, such as what we are experiencing now.

Do you have any other choice at this time? No, you can only put a little at a high probability, or you will be harvested by others.

Therefore, we can see that our monetary policy is also relatively loose, but we have done a better job in resuming work and production, and the epidemic situation is better controlled. And we are determined not to blow the asset bubble too much. I still say that, our government is really doing well at the macro level. Let's stop cursing so much and have a little rational analysis.

We strictly restricted the purchase of real estate, forced funds to enter the physical industry, and extended the life of the enterprise. We tried our best to sign various cooperation agreements to get technology so that our industry could be upgraded, and we really did everything we could.

In such a bad external environment, I think our government is very good, and we should stick to it for a long time. Again, these external pressures are short-term. Whether it is a trade war or an epidemic, only by doing our own thing can we cope with risks for a long time. If our technology is upgraded, if our industry is upgraded, if what we do is the best in the world, are you still afraid of Americans?

Third, the situation of various assets.

Finally, let's get down to business. Let's talk about what we are most concerned about, and how to preserve and increase value.

I think everyone who can ask this question should be doing well. The biggest feature of this epidemic is that they have fixed jobs, enterprises, institutions or large companies, and those in big cities can be slightly better, and the impact of the epidemic is not so great.

However, people with unstable jobs, in high-risk industries and at the bottom of society are not very easy to find jobs, their income is very unstable, and the gap between the rich and the poor is indeed widening.

We look at the statistics this time, and our investment and investment in fixed assets are recovering, and the recovery is good, which is more than before the epidemic. Our luxury goods have sold at sky-high prices, and our luxury cars are better than the original ones. What does this mean? The rich have too much money to put.

And the worst of all indicators is consumption. Why?

This is the so-called principle of diminishing marginal propensity to consume. That is to say, the rich can't spend more money. He has1100,000, and spends 20,000 to 30,000 at most, while the poor, who only has 5,000, may spend it all, and the proportion of the poor is even higher.

Now that consumption is not working, it means that the poor people have no money. What if there is no money? Only by releasing water, enterprises can pay their debts, continue production and have demand, and at the same time, stimulate a series of employment and save the poor. This is no way.

For example, reduce the deposit reserve ratio, such as reducing interest, such as reverse repurchase, such as all kinds of spicy powder. These are all to increase liquidity, and these are all to expand our currency. Stimulate industry, stimulate employment and provide employment opportunities for everyone.

But the side effects are also very obvious. I just said that the rich have1000,000, and spend at most 20,000 to 30,000. What about the rest of the money? If he keeps the rest of the money in his hand, then his money will be continuously diluted. He has only one choice, and that is to buy assets, such as houses, such as stocks, such as Bitcoin, so we see that these three things have grown very fierce this year.

However, the differentiation is also very obvious. For example, houses in core cities and big cities have increased even more, while houses at the next level, remote houses and houses with less good quality have fallen sharply.

For example, stocks, many head stocks rose sharply, but most of the small stocks were left unattended.

For example, bitcoin, which was not paid much attention to in the past, or was not so widely concerned and full of various bubbles, was the fiercest increase. From the initial more than 9,000, it has now risen to a level of more than 30,000 to 40,000.

So again, if we want to allocate stocks, the position is already high, the risk is increasing, and differentiation may come. My suggestion is not to buy as much as possible. If you do, buy some index funds. First, buy less. The more you fall, the more you buy. Set a profit-taking goal. Don't invest too much. After all, you know the stock market in China. Investing in index funds may be the most stable way, and it will progress with the improvement of social efficiency and economic progress.

For bitcoin, that is to buy a little. If it falls, buy a little more, and the position should not be too big. I have a special article on Bitcoin. In the future, you should hold it for a long time, always hold it. If you lose, you will recognize it. If you win, you may earn a pension. This is probably the idea. This is a high-risk asset. Don't think so much. I have a feeling that the richest people in the world may put a little money in bitcoin.

For houses, again, try to buy houses in large and medium-sized cities, try to sell houses with higher location, houses with net population inflow and houses with stronger demand. We see that the differentiation of houses is becoming more and more obvious. There is no other reason, the whole world is like this, the house may not be far away, but the price will be much worse. Again, what matters is not the bricks and stones above, but the land below.

I have written too many articles about the logic of the house. If you are interested, you can turn back and have a look. Once again, I don't sell houses. I just share my opinions. I won't recommend you a house in a certain real estate. I will only tell you what indicators to look at. That's all.

Finally, during the epidemic, we should protect ourselves, try our best to survive, find a job first, don't be too bitter and tired, reduce unnecessary expenses, open up new sources and reduce expenditure, and get through this cold winter first.

Earlier, Israel published an article about COVID-19 vaccine, which said that Tel Aviv's vaccination rate is now nearly 30%, and the effect is still good. I can't think of a big accident. After the mass production of vaccines and the gradual warming of the weather, the impact of the epidemic may gradually see the entrance. Everyone should hold on, and things may be much better after the resumption of work and production and more economic circulation in the future.

Conclusion. Don't misunderstand inflation. Inflation and high prices are two different things. Inflation is not microscopic green onions and pork. Inflation and high asset prices are also two different things. If the economy is not good, the currency cannot be too tight and it is impossible to raise interest rates sharply.

In order to cope with the epidemic, to maintain production, to pay off debts, and to maintain asset prices, the world is releasing water, and there is no bottom line than ours. In the case of releasing water all over the world, we can't be harvested. We can only remain relatively loose and not too tight.

Looking at the annual target consumption is still not good, and the gap between the rich and the poor is widening. Find a job and live first. As the weather gets warmer and the vaccine is pushed away, the probability of Y-feeling will gradually weaken. Stocks are risky, so don't chase them high. Buy less bitcoin and hold it for a long time. House, the core asset of a bigger city with a higher location. Long-term persistence can have a better return.

In 202 1 year, CPI may still rise. In this case, if you want to preserve and increase your assets, there are probably two channels for ordinary people, one is real estate and the other is stock market.

1, real estate As an ordinary person, if you have bought one or two properties, you can basically preserve and increase your assets. However, if you don't have a real estate yet, you should get a loan to buy one. In this case, not only can you live and work in peace and contentment, but you can also save some rent expenses, and you can also preserve and increase your assets, which can be said to be a multi-pronged thing.

Therefore, if you want to preserve and increase value, you must first consider holding real estate.

2. Stock stocks are also a good way for ordinary people to preserve and increase their assets. At present, investment in the stock market should adhere to value investment and long-term holding, which may be less risky and may also preserve and increase value.

At present, there are many high-dividend blue-chip stocks in the stock market with certain investment value. These stocks can not only grow steadily, but also have an annual dividend rate of not less than 5%. If you hold these stocks for a long time, you will have a high probability of achieving an average annual rate of return of 10%, and you will also be able to outperform inflation.

Therefore, investing in stocks is also a good way to preserve and increase the value of assets.

3. Conclusion To sum up, for ordinary people, real estate and stock market are two better investment methods to resist inflation. 202 1 year, if you don't have a house, buy a house quickly. If you have a house, you can consider investing in high-dividend blue-chip stocks in the stock market for a long time.

202 1 or will usher in a new round of "inflation", how to make your assets hedge? First of all, 20021year will bring about a new round of "inflation" tourism activities that are not accurate enough or accurate enough. Because, according to the current world economic development and China's economic growth, although it is a fact that the currency is oversold, the efficiency of economic recovery needs to be observed. China's economy will maintain a good recovery, but the world economy will not. Therefore, the amount of money needed will continue to increase, and it is impossible to turn it into inflation. Then, if prices rise to a certain extent, how can we keep our assets from depreciating?

First of all, if you have money and your normal life will not be affected by the investment, you can buy a house. Of course, due to the regulation, some people can't buy real estate with the money in their hands. This is a problem that needs to be considered. See if you can buy it through your family or in a place where there is no restriction on purchases.

Second, buy gold. Due to the high amount of gold in the early stage, it is necessary to wait a little, and then buy gold when the price of gold comes down to cope with possible inflation.

Third, buy stocks. Especially the growing enterprises, including banks, to cope with the occurrence of inflation. Because, the stock will also rise with the devaluation of the currency.

Fourth, the allocation of some foreign exchange, such as Japanese yen, is the foreign exchange that can be allocated, and there is room for growth.