So how will the pig price trend change this year? When do the highs and lows appear? Is there a trace behind the skyrocketing pig price? Xiao Zhi invited Mr. Wang Zhong, the chief consultant of Mouyi Consulting, to analyze the pig market for 23 years from the bottom logic.
pork
Where is the fifth pig cycle different?
When it comes to pig price, we can't avoid the pig cycle. Historically, we have experienced four complete cycles, and this year we are in the process of the fifth pig cycle. Our new pig cycle is very different from the past four pig cycles.
The first is that large enterprises are relatively more rational. Now the pig industry structure has been dominated by large enterprises, which will be more rational than retail investors.
Secondly, the increase and decrease of production capacity is smaller and faster. Up to today, in the fifth pig cycle, the production of fertile sows has hardly decreased, but some retail investors have sold their piglets, and the production capacity that was completed in the past year was completed in just four months last year.
The third is that the current cycle is likely to be shortened. The pig cycle that has only been completed in the past four years may be completed in 18 months, no more than 24 months, and the amplitude will gradually decrease under the policy adjustment of Fage.
pork
When will the turning point come in 2023?
The most important thing to predict the market is to know which node of the pig cycle is at this moment.
You can think about it. When the pig price is 15 yuan for 22 years, why are people still expecting 20 yuan? If you know in advance that 1 1 month will start to plummet, or even drop 1 yuan a day, will anyone blindly press the bar? This is because we don't know the position of the cycle, which leads to the wrong decision.
So where are the highs and lows of this cycle? Teacher Wang Zhong thinks that the high point appeared in 10 last year, and as for the low point, it is now basically close to the bottom. However, because the standard pig has been losing money for two months in a row, the productive capacity of the fertile sow has not been reduced. In this case, it is only a bottom check, and it has not yet reached the grinding stage. When the productive capacity is really reduced and the price of piglets falls below the cost line, that is the real bottom.
pork
How will the pig price change in 23 years?
First, many pig farmers made money last year, and some even made a lot of money. Under the expectation of such huge profits, more people will raise pigs and even fry pigs with emotions in 2023, so this year's pig market will never be so calm.
Second: According to what we know, fertile sows have not been detoxified at all, and they still maintain a historical high, reaching about 44 million. In fact, some retail investors can really get rid of sows, and some large enterprises even increase. Secondly, the production capacity of piglets has not gone. Now the price of 7 kilograms of piglets has reached 400 yuan, and there are still hundreds of dollars to make a profit, so the production capacity of piglets has not gone. Finally, up to now, after the Spring Festival, only about 10% of the big fat is left, but there is no shortage of standard pigs. At present, there may not be many standard pigs in the hands of retail investors, and a large number of standard pigs are actually in group enterprises.
Third: Now the price of 30 kg piglets is as high as 550~600 yuan, and many people have caught the second fattening, so the mood of pig farmers has not retreated.
To sum up, Teacher Wang Zhong believes that this round of pig cycle is still in the downward period and has not yet bottomed out. Even if the price rebounds, it is not a real reversal. No matter how high the rebound is, even if it rebounds to 10, it will definitely fall. There is no doubt.