First, the price of onion and garlic has both risen.
According to the monitoring of Beijing Xinfadi, the price of garlic was 3.5 yuan/kg on September 4th, which was higher than that of 3.2 yuan/kg last month and 2.8 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year. The price of green onion was 1.2~ 1.4 yuan/kg last week, and this week it rose to 1.6~ 1.8 yuan/kg, up 30.77% from the previous month.
Although the overall increase is not big, it still attracts the attention of careful friends. After all, although onion and garlic are niche agricultural products, they have been repeatedly hyped and their prices have skyrocketed. Every once in a while, they will come to "give money to onions" and "garlic you are malicious". For example, last year, the market of garlic was miserable, and the price plummeted in a large area, but this situation only lasted for half a year and then reversed, and the price rose several times.
Why does the price of onion and garlic fluctuate so sharply?
Second, follow the trend of planting and speculation.
The change of supply and demand of onion and garlic is mainly manifested in the decrease of output, and the price will rise. At this time, many farmers will follow the trend of planting, but if they follow the trend too much, the output will increase, the supply will increase, the price will drop, and the farmers will reduce their planting, so the output will drop again. This cycle has formed a unique cycle of the onion and garlic market.
However, relying solely on changes in the supply side will obviously not produce a gap of several times or even ten times. Another reason is speculation. Everyone is no stranger to speculation, especially since last year, the country has issued excessive currency, which has intensified the speculation of capital. For example, behind the high international food and commodity prices, speculation is indispensable.
Compared with grain and commodities, the market size of niche products such as onion and garlic is much smaller and the producing areas are relatively concentrated, which means it is easier to control. Therefore, the hype of onion and garlic can be said to have never stopped, so every once in a while, the drama of "going to the money and onion" and "garlic you are ruthless" will be staged.
Third, will this year's "Qian cong" and "garlic you are malicious" come back?
In view of the current price increase of onion and garlic, the market has different views:
One view is that the price of garlic was relatively low last year, farmers' enthusiasm for planting was not high, and the rainstorm in Henan affected some of the output, so the price of garlic has a basis for rising. However, green onions are more sensitive. There is more rain this year. Green onions are most afraid of soaking in water. They will rot after soaking and are not easy to preserve, so the situation of green onions may be more severe.
However, another view is that although the price of onion and garlic has increased, it is still relatively stable overall. As for garlic, there is a saying that "China garlic looks at Shandong", because Shandong is the main garlic producing area. According to Shandong's data, the price of garlic is relatively stable, the inventory has also increased this year, and the sales of new warehouses are more active. After the opening of Henan market, garlic was fully listed and the price dropped. Overall, the price of garlic was relatively stable in the second half of the year.
On the other hand, although green onions rose month-on-month, the main reason was poor rainfall transportation. Although the "Double Festival" is coming, the demand for green onions is often limited, so the price of green onions is generally within the normal fluctuation range. If the market changes, there may be a wave of changes in the early Spring Festival.