First, the pig market suddenly turned down.
Recently, the hog market has risen well, and the average price has surpassed that of 7.7 yuan. In some areas, pig prices have come to the front line in 8.4 yuan, basically keeping the breeding cost.
However, today, the price of pigs in the market has suddenly dropped. In addition to the rise in several provinces such as Guangdong and Hainan, the pig prices in as many as 20 provinces and cities across the country have been adjusted back, and the market has changed its face again.
Among them: Anhui pig price is lowered by 2 cents per catty, 7.9-8. 1 yuan/catty; Jiangsu fell 2 hairs, 8.0-8.3 yuan/kg; Shandong fell 2 hairs, 7.89-8. 1 yuan/kg; Shanxi fell 2 hairs, 7.6-8.05 yuan/kg; Heilongjiang fell 2 hairs, 7.6-8.05 yuan/kg; Other rising provinces fell by 0.05-0. 15 yuan.
The sudden decline of the live pig market should be treated with a normal heart and should be a normal market reflection.
Logically speaking:
First, the price of pigs rose from the low of less than 6.8 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month to the average price of 7.86 yuan yesterday, up about 1 yuan. According to the current market rhythm, there should also be some cases of falling and trampling.
Second, with the increase in the price of live pigs, the willingness of some farmers to slaughter live pigs has increased, which has increased the slaughter speed of live pigs, and also led to a temporary increase in the supply of live pigs, which has lowered the price of live pigs.
Third, in the face of the increase of pig delivery vehicles, slaughter enterprises will also change their methods to reduce the purchase price.
Fourth, it is currently in the off-season of pork consumption, and the recent increase in pork prices has led to low sales of white strips and low sales in the terminal market. It is also natural for pig prices to retreat.
It is understood that the current pork prices in various places are about 1 higher than those at the beginning of the month, and 2 yuan. At present, the mainstream retail price of pork is maintained at 10- 15 yuan/kg.
Regarding the market outlook, the pig market is likely to be a slow rising process.
First, judging from the recent price increase of piglets in various places, the stock of some breeding subjects is not high, which can be understood as tight supply in the market outlook.
Second, the economic recovery factor, three years after the epidemic, all walks of life are gradually recovering, coupled with raising horses and releasing water, pig prices also have the momentum to rise.
The third is the national regulatory factor. In order to stabilize the price and ensure the supply, when the pig price is too low, the relevant departments will timely collect and store it to stabilize the price, so as to lock in the falling space for the pig price.
Generally speaking, although the pig market has declined, the market outlook is still not pessimistic.
Second, the price increase of corn enterprises in many places.
After the Spring Festival, the corn market fluctuated and weakened. After nearly 1 month, the Shandong market turned around today. Many enterprises have raised the purchase price, which makes some farmers who don't sell grain see hope.
It is understood that: Shandong: Tian Li Pharmaceutical rose by 0.7 points, and the price was 1.4 1 yuan/kg; Huayi Ronghai rose 0.3 points, and the price was 1.453 yuan/kg; Fuyang Bio rose 0.5 point, and the price was 1.4 13 yuan/kg; Seven-star lemon rose 0.5 point, and the price was .475 yuan/kg; Zhucheng's trade rose by 0.3 points, and the quotation was 1.453 yuan/kg; Shengtai Pharmaceutical rose 1.2 points, and quoted 1.4 12 yuan/kg.
Jilin Cargill biochemical rise 1 point, the price of more than three categories 1.365 yuan/kg.
In addition, Hebei Derui starch fell by 0.7 points, and the price was 1.4 yuan/kg; Heilongjiang Longjiang Fufeng fell 0.5 point, 1.325 yuan/kg.
There are three main reasons for the increase in corn prices:
First, with the sales of grass-roots corn in the country, there is not much stock of grass-roots corn at present, and most of the corn in the main producing areas is piled up, so farmers are reluctant to sell grain. They sell when the market is good, and they stay when the market is bad, that is, the grain source from the grass-roots supply market becomes more limited.
Second, there has been a new positive in the market recently, that is, the purchase of grain reserves has begun to accelerate recently, which has a good boosting effect on the corn market and stabilized everyone's bearish mood.
Third, some processing enterprises have low inventory. At present, the inventory of some corn enterprises in North China and East China is not high, and there is a certain demand for rigid replenishment, which will also have a positive impact on the market.
Regarding the market outlook, although there are some positive changes in the market at present, the promotion of corn price increase is relatively limited, because:
First, at present, after all, it is the main time period for corn sales after the year. It is ok to have a small fluctuation at this time, but the possibility of a big increase is almost zero.
Second, the current wheat price continues to fall. Today, some enterprises buy as low as 1.55 yuan/kg, and the lower wheat price is also very unfavorable to the corn market.
Third, the market is rumored that the targeted delivery of rice will be started in March, which will also have an impact on the corn in the feed market.
To sum up, the view that corn is "short, weak and strong" remains unchanged, that is to say, it is difficult for the corn market to have a big improvement before the end of March, and it is highly probable that it will usher in a new turn in April.
Third, Peanut was surprised to see the reference of the prefix "7".
At the request of some netizens, I would like to talk to you about the peanut market today.
Affected by the shrinking peanut area and declining production capacity in 2022, the price of peanuts has soared. At present, the price of peanuts in some areas has exceeded the 7 yuan mark.
The latest peanut market shows: According to the news from the peanut trading network, Dingyuan County, Chuzhou, Anhui Province can deliver 5.9 yuan/kg of polished rice, and the polished rice on the 8-screen is as high as 7.0-7.2 yuan/kg.
Up to now, 5.4 yuan/kg of rice in Shandong province has increased by 0. 17 yuan compared with the previous week, and by 1.65 yuan/kg compared with the same period last year. The total paddy rice in Henan is 5.5-5.65 yuan/kg, up 0. 125 yuan from the previous week and up 1.825 yuan/kg from the same period last year.
Peanut prices in other producing areas have also increased to varying degrees, with the mainstream increase above 1.5 yuan/kg.
The price of peanuts is relatively good this year, mainly because the profit of peanut planting has been continuously low in the past three years, so it is better to plant other crops, resulting in a significant reduction in peanut planting area and a serious decline in output in 2022.
It is understood that:
Shandong, Henan, Liaoning, Hebei and other major peanut producing areas. The planting area decreased obviously, and the yield reduction range was between 10-35%.
It is not surprising that the output is low, the supply and demand are reversed, and the peanut price is rising 1.5 yuan/kg year-on-year.
The soaring price of peanuts will inevitably trigger a new wave of planting expansion. According to a media report, a farmer in a certain place in Henan sells peanuts 275 18 yuan, which is really affordable for growers.
Faced with such planting profits, many farmers will have the idea of expanding the planting area, which will also lead to a certain degree of improvement in peanut planting area in 2023.
Therefore, I would like to remind everyone here that under the expectation that the peanut planting area may increase greatly this year, farmers who want to expand their planting should be cautious, appropriately expand their planting, and do not excessively increase investment and avoid risks.
The above views are only personal views and are for reading and sharing only.
At the same time, I also hope that friends with different opinions can express their views for domestic friends' reference.