According to the report, the "love" atmosphere is more intense.
According to monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, as of the end of April, the national stock of breeding sows was 41.773 million, down 0.2% from 41.85 million in March, down for 10 consecutive months from the previous year.
At the same time, the national hog inventory in April 2022 fell 0.2% year-on-year, the first year-on-year decline since June 2021, through which we can see that the rebound in hog prices is the result of a shift from a "below-cost level" to a "return to the cost line" in the farming industry. "Not a trend rise caused by the lack of capacity, so we have to have a plan in mind.
Recently, hog futures after a month of rapid rise, May 17 suddenly "face", hog futures main contract LH2209 in May 17 after the opening once touch high to 19,915 yuan / ton, refresh the new high since June 2021, however, followed by a substantial reduction in intraday diving, the final main contract fell 4.5 percent. Eventually the main contract fell 4.64% to 18,825 yuan / ton, leading the commodity market, the previous week's gains were erased.
This shows that despite the farmers in the pen, breeding sow capacity peak, as well as the country's successive storage help, pig prices showed a significant rebound, but subject to the end of the slow improvement in demand for pork consumption, hog production capacity is still more than enough, the road back to the price of pigs or will show a wave of twists and turns.
Industry analysts said: the current domestic pig profits have appeared to a greater extent to repair, piglet prices also led to high reserve sows and elimination of the reduction in May is expected to be able to breed sows inventory or will pick up, the domestic hog production capacity trend or the end of the phase, which also indicates that it is difficult for pigs to rise to too high a level, and with the successive rise in the domestic price of hogs! "new highs", the market rising resistance is also gradually increasing, there is still a high risk of falling back.
One is the market overall supply of hogs, will continue to loose the fundamentals, especially the phenomenon of increased secondary fattening, resulting in increased market standardized pig pressure columns, the average weight of hogs out of the columns continue to increase; another is that the domestic feed costs are still high, it is difficult to continue to farm end of the columns, with the hogs out of the columns one after another profit, the farming end of the high fence, the bag of peace of mind to thick, the scale of the pig enterprises to flee the high price of the mood may intensify; the last one is that domestic feed prices climbed "new high", there is still a risk of falling back. The last is that with the arrival of the summer season, the market for fat pork demand is poor, consumption constraints performance or tend to be more and more intense, and the breeding side of the impact of high temperature and high humidity, the farm disease or will increase, out of the panic aggravated.
So, based on the market game, pig prices will still return to the market fundamentals, is expected to pig prices in the short term or signs of shock retracement, for the subsequent upward momentum, only rely on the third and fourth quarters of the consumer market to usher in a new situation.
According to the pig price system monitoring shows that the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of hogs 7 up, 1 down, 18 flat, stable areas accounted for 69% of all the monitoring, the pig market as a whole is in the "stable more up" trend.
According to the slaughtering enterprise purchasing difficulty, the slaughtering enterprise hog purchasing difficulty still exists, there is a more obvious resistance to the acquisition of high-priced hogs, the wholesale market constraints on the emotional performance of the obvious, the market in southern China appeared to a certain 'rotten market', the local hog enterprise hog prices have a certain phenomenon of decline.
Market sentiment is general, part of the enterprise still exists more obvious price pressure.
Farming group pig prices showed up and down adjustments, pig enterprise pig price rise phenomenon obviously weakened, the leading group of hogs on the market volume appeared up and down adjustments, the key areas appeared to be a certain amount of shrinkage, its pig prices have a certain decline phenomenon, the high-priced hogs to go more difficult speed.
Slaughtering enterprises in the northern region of the white pigs out of the price stabilized trend, the speed of delivery performance is weak.
Tomorrow's hog price trend warning: combined with the analysis of recent factors in the pig market, it is expected that tomorrow's hog prices show a "stable oscillation" trend, part of the region in the background of the slaughterhouse price pressures have a "down" momentum.
The above interpretation of the pig market for your reference, welcome to exchange views on the pig market, to grasp the dynamics of the market, collect and share, I believe that after all the trials and tribulations, you must be able to nirvana_ rebirth.