Recently, in the domestic livestock and poultry breeding industry, the market trends of pigs and eggs have been divergent, with egg prices mainly adjusting to the strong side. Although the market has fallen back from highs in the past two days, there is strong support at the bottom of the market. In the live pig market, pig prices rose and fell rapidly. Due to factors such as market sentiment and slaughterhouses buying stocks at low prices, pig prices successfully counterattacked and the prices were relatively strong.
However, in terms of feed raw materials, the soybean meal market has recently "broken down" and there is still room for further price declines!
Soybean meal "breaks the position" and goes down!
In the soybean meal market, the price of spot soybean meal has started a "tide of price decline". At present, in terms of domestic mainstream oil mills, the quotation price of Guangdong Coastal Oil Mill has dropped to 3740 yuan/ton, and the quotation price of Jiangsu Oil Mill has dropped to 3750 yuan/ton. / ton, Shandong oil mills quoted 3,800 yuan / ton, and oil mills’ quotes generally fell by 40 to 70 yuan / ton. In terms of traders, Tianjin traders quoted 3,780 yuan / ton, Dalian traders quoted 3,910 yuan / ton, and Shanghai traders quoted The quoted price is 3,750 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price of 43% protein has generally fallen back to around 20~70 yuan/ton!
According to analysis by industry insiders, in March, domestic soybeans are expected to arrive at 6.5 million tons, a shock and decline from the previous month. Due to the reduction in soybean arrivals, domestic oil plants are under heavy pressure on soybean meal storage. Oil plants have shut down or reduced operating rates, and the pressure on soybean meal inventory has improved slightly. This week, the domestic soybean meal inventory is around 523,000 tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons from the previous week. However, the spot soybean meal inventory has increased significantly year-on-year. It is still nearly 60%. Therefore, domestic soybean meal supply maintains relatively loose fundamentals!
In terms of demand, since the first and second quarters after the new year are the off-season for the domestic consumer market and the consumption of soybean meal on the breeding side, feed companies are not very enthusiastic about picking up goods due to losses in pig fattening, which has also caused oil prices to rise. The pressure on factory soybean meal inventories is high. Due to the accelerated progress of Brazilian soybean harvest, the scale of imported soybeans entering Hong Kong increased significantly from April to May. Domestic soybean meal supply still has a trend of further easing. Therefore, the market is pessimistic and bearish sentiment is strong. Feed companies are more cautious about purchasing, which also exacerbates the fundamentals of excess supply and demand of spot soybean meal!
Therefore, due to the influence of many factors, the price of domestic spot soybean meal has "broken down" and downwards, and there is still pressure for prices to fall further!
Egg prices fell sharply!
In the egg market, around mid-March, domestic egg prices entered a stage of soaring and stagflation. As the consumer market’s resistance to high-priced eggs increased, the pace of egg sales in the downstream market slowed down, and residents replaced consumption. The phenomenon has increased, and egg prices have encountered obstacles in rising. However, due to the weak supply pressure of eggs, it is more difficult for prices to fall. Domestic spot prices have shown a high and stagflation performance. At present, the quotations in the production and sales market are fluctuating and weak!
According to agency data analysis, currently, in the domestic production area market, the average egg delivery price is 4.86 yuan/catty, and in the sales area market, the average egg delivery price is 4.91 yuan/catty. In the production and sales market, the egg price Rushing higher and lowering slowly, the game of market supply and demand heats up!
Negative aspects: Due to the rise in egg prices in the short term, although the price of eggs in the production and sales market is less than 5 yuan/catty, at present, the price of eggs in the domestic retail market has generally risen into the "5 yuan era", and some urban businesses have The price of super eggs has even risen to 5.5~5.6 yuan/jin. The rise in egg prices has restricted residents’ enthusiasm for consumption and intensified the market’s resistance. Recently, the popularity of egg trading in the domestic secondary and tertiary markets has cooled down, and eggs in the downstream market have been sold in stocks. The goods are mainly goods, and traders are relatively cautious!
Positive factors: At present, the inventory level of domestic laying hens is low. Due to the sharp rise in feed prices in November last year, the domestic sales market has deteriorated, and the pace of chicken breeding at the breeding end has declined. The inventory level of laying hens this month has declined. On the low side, superposition, the recent rise in domestic meat poultry prices, the profit from culling old chickens is considerable, farmers cull more old chickens, further exacerbating the shortage of multi-layer laying hens, and the egg supply level is poor!
In addition, due to the low supply of eggs, downstream market demand has gradually picked up this month, and the inventory pressure in the domestic production and marketing market has been weak. The weather is moderate, eggs are conducive to storage, and there is a certain price-raising operation on the breeding side!
Under the long-short game, the downward pressure on egg prices is weak, and the market maintains a high and volatile trend. In the short term, prices may have pressure to correct slightly. However, as the Qingming Festival approaches at the end of the month, , secondary and tertiary markets and e-commerce demand may increase. Egg prices are boosted by the festive atmosphere and there is still support for rising prices!
Pork prices “contrary to the trend”!
In the pig market, at present, the domestic pig price trend is "counterattack", and the market has stopped falling continuously. In domestic areas, the pig price shock is relatively strong, and the national average pig price is around 7.53 yuan/jin. In the market, the actual selling price of live pigs is around 7.3~8 yuan/jin!
The price of pigs has fluctuated strongly. I personally believe that the market sentiment has changed to a certain extent. Recently, due to the consideration of the risk of disease in pig farms, two
The enthusiasm for secondary fattening and pen replenishment is sluggish, and a small amount of hot money has replenished pigs of about 120 kilograms. However, secondary fattening lacks support for pig prices!
As for pig fattening, at present, pig prices are hovering at low levels, and the pressure on the breeding end to lose money for slaughter continues. The losses for self-breeding and fattening piglets and purchased piglets are generally around 120 to 200 yuan/head. Resistance to losses has increased. In the past two days, the pace of pig production has slowed down, while the pace of pig production by group pig companies has been average. Some pig farms have operated to raise prices, which has also supported the rise in pig prices!
Of course, in addition to the reluctance to sell at high prices on the breeding side, slaughterhouses have recently been more enthusiastic about stocking up at bargain prices. The operating rate of domestic sample slaughterhouses has gradually recovered, and the scale of pig collection has increased, especially , the demand support is not smooth, the external transfer of fresh white bars has obvious losses, and the slaughterhouse is actively warehousing operations!
As a result, pig prices have successfully counterattacked with the support of the market's price-raising sentiment and the accelerated pace of slaughterhouses' warehousing. However, due to the unabated pressure on the breeding side, large pigs have been released early in the market recently. Phenomenon, the sentiment on the breeding side is changeable, and the market will still maintain a trend of hovering at the bottom. In the short term, pig prices lack the basis for a substantial boost!