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Second, transportation costs have risen. The pattern of vegetable supply in China is that both production and sales are booming. At present, three quarters of vegetable production in China is concentrated in 12 provinces, with an annual vegetable output of 20 million tons. Vegetable supply is easily affected by extreme weather, but it also means that the transportation radius of vegetables is very large. Since the beginning of this year, the transportation cost has been rising, and in the process of transporting vegetables, there is a very sensitive variable, that is, the price of diesel. With the continuous rise of international crude oil prices, China raised the oil price 14 times during the year. In May this year, the price of diesel was 6600 yuan per ton, but this month, the price of diesel has approached 7600 yuan, up 65438.
The third is the increase in production costs. Since the beginning of this year, the prices of coal, oil and other commodities have risen sharply, which has led to a sharp rise in the prices of agricultural products such as fertilizers, seeds, shed films, plastic films and packaging cartons, resulting in an increase in planting costs of about 30%. If the current situation continues, growers can only continue to pass on the costs by raising the prices of agricultural products.
Fourth, central banks adopt quantitative easing policies on currencies. In the post-epidemic era, countries such as Europe, America, Japan and South Korea, led by the United States, adopted quantitative easing policies on currencies, including the shortage of supply chains, which led to the soaring food prices in these areas and transmitted them to China.
Therefore, the recent sharp increase in vegetable prices is the result of seasonal weather factors, rising production costs and the international economic situation.
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When will the price of vegetables come down?
At present, the extreme weather has passed, and many major vegetable producing areas affected by the disaster are trying to replant vegetables. Therefore, the contradiction between supply and demand will be obviously alleviated in a short time.
First, on the whole, China's vegetable supply guarantee ability is very strong. The vegetable output in China keeps increasing 10, and the annual vegetable planting area is 300 million mu. At present, the annual vegetable output is 700 million tons, and the per capita annual consumption of vegetables and fruits exceeds 500 kilograms, ranking first in the world. At the same time, at present, the scale of vegetables in the field is 654.38 billion mu, a slight increase over last year. Therefore, the long-term vegetable supply capacity, including all aspects of vegetable production and supply, has accumulated rich experience and can stand the test of coping with short-term fluctuations and ensuring vegetable supply.
Second, leafy vegetables are the biggest increase this time. After entering June 5438+065438+ 10, with a large number of leafy vegetables in Guangdong, Hainan, Yunnan and other vegetable producing areas in the south, it is expected that the prices of these vegetables will drop significantly in about 20 days, and greenhouse vegetables in the north will be listed one after another, which will form a favorable supplement to the market supply.
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Third, vegetables are highly substitutable and selective. This time, the growth rate of root vegetables such as potatoes and onions is not large, and the state will put in storage-resistant reserve vegetables to adjust the structural imbalance of vegetable supply.
Fourth, the factors that push up the cost of vegetable production are easing. With the gradual introduction of national agricultural product control policies, such as the regulation of pesticide and fertilizer-related industries, the phenomenon of price gouging and hoarding is decreasing, so overall, the pressure of pushing up costs will be gradually eased through the release of policy dividends.
Fifth, farmers' willingness to plant is increasing. With the increase of vegetable prices, many vegetable farmers are willing to expand their planting area because they can get more profits in the short term.
Vegetable prices will fall back, but it does not mean that they will return to a very low price range. In addition to inflation, some varieties have short-term structural differences in the process of supply and demand convergence. Therefore, the prices of affected vegetable varieties will remain at a high level this year.