The so-called "self-organization" refers to the formation of the state of the organization is mainly generated by the interaction between the internal organization of the system, rather than any external factors control or dominated by. This can be defined as a small stock, futures and some other investment markets, as well as a large enterprise, society can be defined for this purpose.
"Self-organized criticality" means that self-organization will naturally move towards a critical state, and when the system reaches a self-organized critical state, even small disturbing events can cause a series of catastrophic changes in the system.
The Chinese expression "the last straw that breaks the camel's back" is the most succinct analogy for this phenomenon.
So, is the last grain of sand the cause of the collapse of the sand pile?
Obviously not! It merely induced the phenomenon.
If the stock market is simply compared to a sand pile, each of us is a grain of sand. When the stock market rises, we all pile up hard. No one knows, nor is it possible to know where the tipping point is. On a very normal trading day, in the midst of the blazing prosperity, the sand pile collapsed.
Some scientists have specialized in calculating the critical state of the sand pile effect, only to find that it is almost impossible to calculate. Each grain of sand has so much uncertainty that to really account for all the possibilities, the existing computing power needs to be increased by millions of times.
Black swan events are unpredictable, and conversely, what is predictable is not a black swan event.
But because of the natural asymmetry of information, black swans are for some people, but not for others. Like the turkey theory, being slaughtered is a black swan event for the turkey, but not for the butcher. Similarly, a black swan event for the vast majority of stockholders who are harvested in the stock market is not a black swan event for the harvesters.
Taleb said: there are two kinds of people in the world, one is like a turkey that is unaware of the danger; the other is always waiting for the black swan event to happen.
Based on this knowledge, we need to be the sand piles, the 'butchers' as much as possible. Stand outside the system and observe all this change coldly with our acquired metacognitive abilities. The 'cold cold' state ensures that we are awake and calm. While we can't predict the exact timeframe of the collapse either, we do know that the collapse will come soon enough, as long as we continue to function in our current state.
Probability theory is probably our best friend at the moment. We can calculate that the probability of winning the lottery jackpot is as high as 1 in 10 million, which is definitely not as high as the probability of winning at a casino, and it's amazing how many people still go for it.
This speaks to the human nature of wanting instant feedback. Nile in Black Swan is probably Taleb's 'himself', and even as smart as he is, he can't resist the erosion of the hippocampus in his brain by 'bloodshed'. Though one has learned through the arithmetic of probability that what one envisions will surely come, the length of the wait still leaves one scarred and exhausted. He would also be 'trembling with excitement' when the envisioned outcome came.
"What doesn't kill me makes me stronger'' also refers only to the honing of the will. It's hard to say whether one gains or loses; is stronger or weaker, compared to the damage done to the rest of the body.
Of the many theories of solutions to the 'sandpile effect', Taleb's Anti-Vulnerability may be relatively 'right on the money'. Building the resilience of a system is fundamental to resisting shocks. If one can counter its momentum and resist the damage of emotions, disapproval, and short-term benefits, one may be able to embrace the black swan event and enjoy the positive benefits it brings. Of course, it's also possible that, like Drogo, the protagonist of The Desert of the Tartars, one spends one's life waiting in a hopeful hut for the desired event to occur, and is personally dying in the tavern when it actually does.
Having said all this, really, I just want to say: the future is unpredictable!