The price of pigs is changing rapidly. It was extremely high in October and fell in November, causing the profit of pig farming to plummet by 50% in just one month! And affected by low pig prices, there are still many pigs for secondary fattening. Fortunately, pig prices have rebounded strongly in recent days and feed prices have fallen from highs. Does this mean that pig prices will improve in December and farmers will be able to raise prices this year? Have a good year?

Two good news for the pig industry! The first good news is that pig prices finally rebounded strongly at the end of November, changing from the previous decline of 20 yuan/kg to 22 or 23 yuan/kg.

The price of pigs has recovered, and many self-breeding and self-raising farmers have chosen to take advantage of the trend. However, some secondary fattening farmers are still looking forward to the market outlook, because the profit margin of the current pig price is low. According to Data from the Steel Federation shows that last week’s profits from pig farming dropped by as much as 40-50% from the high point a month ago!

Therefore, the bigger good news is about the trend of pig prices in December.

According to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price 200 Index" on November 29 was 124.90. As of 14:00 that day, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 32.44 yuan/kg, down from yesterday. 1.2.

The decline in pork prices is the most powerful stimulus to consumption levels! One of the main reasons for the sharp drop in pig prices in November is that meat prices have soared since October, and consumers have generally boycotted high-priced meat, leading to a sharp drop in consumption levels and even a sluggish market for cured meats.

The decline in pig prices almost continued throughout November, and was finally transmitted to the consumer side in the last week.

According to joint monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and Zhuochuang Information, in the 46th week of 2022, the weekly average of the total factory price index of lean white pork in 16 major provinces and cities across the country was 29.69 yuan/kg, a month-on-month decrease of 5.1 , a year-on-year increase of 25.5, narrowing 9.3 percentage points from last week.

Specific analysis shows that the ex-factory price of pork increased by 25.5% year-on-year in 2021, which has little reference value for the market, because the price of pigs in the same period last year was too low, and the industry was generally in deep losses; while the month-on-month decrease of 5.1% showed that the price of meat The fall from the high level, coupled with the sudden drop in temperatures across the country, will help increase consumption levels in December and stimulate a recovery in pig prices!

However, it is also necessary to warn that as the new year is approaching, the work of "stabilizing prices and ensuring supply" of relevant departments in various places will also be strengthened. Recently, there have been news of "releasing meat reserves". It can be seen that once The price of pigs has risen sharply, and the release of reserve meat will also be stepped up! Therefore, farmers should pay attention to taking advantage of high prices and not be greedy and gamble on the market. In December, they should focus on "reducing risks and losses".

New warning for pig prices in December December is different from November. The decline in pig prices in November can be clearly judged from the end of October, but opportunities and risks in pig prices in December coexist.

The biggest opportunity is pickled bacon. The pickled bacon market has not started in November. Even if the market this year will be lower than last year, the overall consumption will definitely increase month-on-month; and it must be considered that there will be no pickled pork in November. Launch means there is more space for launch in December!

The biggest risk still lies in secondary fattening.

According to the monitoring of my steel network, the average weight of Sanyuan pigs sold nationwide this week was 126.79 kilograms, an increase of 0.04 kilograms from last week and a month-on-month increase of 0.03.

The continuous increase in the average slaughter weight of pigs shows that the stock of secondary fattening pigs is still being released. Many secondary fattening farmers are still raising prices to suppress the slaughter, but no matter how hard they are, they cannot exceed In December, this posed a major threat to pig prices.

According to the survey of Mysteel agricultural products, the overall progress of secondary fattening pigs across the country is slow. With pig prices low in November, farms in the southwest region are mainly waiting and watching, and there are still a large number of secondary fattening pigs waiting for high prices; South China The regional estimate is that the secondary fattening and slaughtering rate is relatively positive, with the proportion of slaughtering at about 30%; the estimated secondary fattening and slaughtering progress in the middle and upper reaches of the Yangtze River is about 35%; the comprehensive assessment of the progress of secondary fattening and slaughtering by farmers nationwide is about 30%, and will continue in December occupy market space.

This is also an early warning for pig prices in December. The production capacity of secondary fattening is highly concentrated, and people are eager to bet on the "highest pig price." However, the more this mentality is used, the easier it is to miss the high price point, so breeding The rhythm of household sales should go against this mentality.

Specifically, many people will definitely want to bet on the last opportunity before the Spring Festival, but there is one thing to note, that is, the mask problem will be serious at the end of this year, and it is extremely possible for a major economic province to advocate "celebrating the New Year on the spot" high! Once the number of people "celebrating the Chinese New Year on the spot" increases this year, consumption such as "banquets and dinner parties" on the eve of the Spring Festival will be severely impacted.

In a word, there is a great opportunity for pig prices to pick up in December, and may return to 23-24 yuan/kg in stages. However, the high price point that everyone is optimistic about is often the biggest trap!

However, whether farmers can have a good year depends not only on pig prices, but also on breeding costs...

Cost pressure has dropped sharply since feed prices in February 2022 Since the surge, farmers have been suffering from "high costs" for a long time. The price of feed after October has exceeded previous years by nearly 1,000 yuan/ton, putting great pressure on the animal husbandry industry.

Fortunately, since November 11, the price of soybean meal has finally begun to fall back from a high level, and has dropped for a very rare 8 rounds, directly from the highest point of more than 5,600 yuan/ton to the current level of 5,200 yuan/ton. , the drop is as high as more than 400 yuan/ton!

And as soybean meal prices have fallen for many days, feed prices have finally fallen.

At present, there are still manufacturers such as Twins, Anyou, Haid, Jiangsu Daxin, Linyi Bangji, Shanghai Xiangchuan, Hebei Muda, Asia Pacific Star, Nantong Kuaicheng, Henan Zhengbenqingyuan, Henan Bangnong and other manufacturers have announced one after another. Price reduction.

What is even more rare is that the price of soybean meal is not only declining currently, but there is also plenty of room for further decline in the future!

Because on the one hand, the number of imported soybeans arriving in Hong Kong continues to increase, the international situation has also stabilized, and the tight supply of raw materials has been alleviated.

On the other hand, soybean meal consumption has also dropped significantly. According to the China Feed Industry Association, national industrial feed production in October 2022 was 26.72 million tons, a decrease of 5.7% month-on-month.

Obviously, on the basis of the rising prices of raw materials, the sales pressure of feed manufacturers is huge, which has led to a general reduction in feed production, thereby reducing the demand for soybean meal.

Changes in feed prices have drastically reduced cost pressure on farmers. At least everyone no longer has to worry about feed price increases with no end in sight.

But in the longer term, it is still far from possible for soybean meal to return to the normal level of 4,000 yuan/ton in previous years! And the more turbulent the Western economy becomes, the crazier they will push food prices. Agriculture and animal husbandry still face many challenges.

For the majority of pig farmers, with the large-scale development of the pig industry, the level of involution competition will continue to increase! But "increasing efficiency and reducing costs" is not only the cause of every farmer, but also the cause of the animal husbandry industry, the cause of building a strong agricultural country!