On the one hand, this situation is related to the international chaos, on the other hand, it is related to the epidemic situation. Traffic and transportation are blocked, the operating rate of enterprises is declining, and the prices of many things are in short supply, but everyone's income has not been significantly improved, so they will feel that money is not enough.
The bad news is that in the next April and May, I'm afraid there will be "four ups and two downs" in the six things we need in our lives, and this is related to everyone's money bag. I hope everyone can prepare in advance.
1. The price of meat will rise
Due to the overcapacity of live pigs and the low pork consumption, the price of live pigs has been running at a low level, and the wholesale price of white pork is also around 1 yuan, and the price of split meat is basically 13-15 yuan/kg.
In the future, people may not be able to eat such cheap pork.
1. Because the breeding cost is too high, the slaughter weight of pigs is reduced, and there will be a situation that there is no shortage of pigs but meat in the market;
2. Pig farmers are optimistic about the market outlook and replenish spare sows, thus reducing the amount of pigs to be slaughtered;
3. From September and October last year, the sow stock began to decline, and it was April and May when it was fed back to the fat pigs.
4. Pork consumption will gradually improve, especially after the lifting of the blockade in various places, there may be a wave of retaliatory consumption;
5. The increase in the cost of pig slaughter caused by the increase in logistics and transportation costs will eventually be transmitted to consumers.
Not only the price of pork will rise, but also the price of beef and mutton. Now, a catty of mutton in 35 yuan and a catty of beef in 39 yuan will be higher.
on the one hand, some consumption will change to beef and mutton after the pig price rises; on the other hand, the recovery of consumption in various places will help to increase the overall demand after the epidemic situation stabilizes; in addition, the supply of beef and mutton in China is tight, and the price of beef and mutton is expected to rise in the next two months.
Second, the price of edible oil has risen
It is reported that some countries in Europe have seen a rush to buy edible oil. Even if the price has risen significantly, it is still sold out as soon as it is put on the shelves.
rapeseed oil and peanut oil are the main edible oils in China. According to media statistics, the price of edible oil in China has been rising all the way since late February, with sunflower oil and soybean oil increasing by more than 5%.
if the international demand for edible oil cannot be changed, the domestic price of edible oil is bound to remain high and even rise further.
Third, the price of refined oil will rise
Not only the "eaten" oil will increase in price, but also the "line" oil will increase in price, and the price of domestic refined oil may rise further in four or five months.
the price of refined oil in China is based on the price of refined oil in the past 1 working days, so many times there will be a phenomenon of crude oil price reduction but refined oil price increase in the market.
according to media statistics, as of April 5th, the international oil price has risen again after a short period of decline, which will drive the domestic oil price to continue to rise. At present, the No.95 gasoline in some areas has risen above 1 yuan, No.98 gasoline is as high as 11 yuan, and the cheapest No.92 gasoline is also above 9.5 yuan. With this wave of international oil price rise, the price of domestic refined oil is bound to continue to rise.
Therefore, car owners should closely collect the price change range and time of refined oil products, and make a plan to fill up the fuel tank according to their own situation, so as to control the increase in driving costs caused by the increase in oil prices to a minimum.
Fourth, the price of toilet paper rises
Although China has a vast territory and abundant resources, there are still many things to import because of its large population. In addition to importing soybeans, corn and other grains, pork, beef and other meat, China also imports a lot of pulp every year. At present, China's dependence on pulp imports is over 6%, so the price of domestic household paper (including toilet paper) is closely related to the rise and fall of international pulp prices.
It is understood that Sun Paper has raised the price of raw paper for household paper by 5 yuan/ton in the last month.
5. The prices of fruits and vegetables will fall
In March, due to the increase of transportation costs, the obstruction of logistics and transportation, and the disconnection between production and marketing, the prices of vegetables and fruits in China have risen sharply, and many vegetables and fruits can even compete with those during the Spring Festival. Everyone vomited that "vegetables are more expensive than meat".
Fortunately, in the next two months, the prices of vegetables and fruits will continue to decline: 1. After the temperature rises, the output of vegetables and fruits will increase, and the types listed will continue to increase; 2. After the local blockade is lifted, the transportation will become smooth and the production and marketing channels will be opened.
However, considering the high price of refined oil and the strict requirements on the transportation time of fruits and vegetables, it is expected that the transportation cost will remain at a high level. Although fruits and vegetables have the motivation to reduce prices, the decline may be limited.
VI. The price of rice and flour will drop
Let's talk about "flour" first. Recently, the price of wheat has dropped significantly, and the purchase price of some flour enterprises has fallen below that of 1.5 yuan. In addition, with the listing of new wheat in China, the easing of relations between Russia and Ukraine, the continuous release of temporary storage and state storage of wheat, and the increasing demand for flour in the off-season, the price of wheat may drop further, and the price of flour will also drop accordingly.
Let's talk about "rice". It is said that the most stable grain price is rice. With the sufficient rice reserves in China, the international food price has little impact on rice, so that everyone can still eat cheap rice despite the sharp increase in international food prices. In the next two months, new rice will be listed one after another, and the domestic rice price will also enter a weak trend.