Pig raising market forecast in 2009

1. Analysis of reasons for changes in the pig raising industry market

View 1: "We made money raising pigs last year, but we will not lose money this year." If you don’t make a profit, the price of raw pigs will drop to less than 4 yuan next year, and pig farming will definitely lose money.”

Opinion 2: Meat prices may skyrocket again the year after next

The Business Federation also said. Emergency warning: Farmers have suffered losses in raising pigs recently, and the excessive decline in meat prices will once again dampen farmers' enthusiasm for raising pigs.

The report stated that the net income from pig raising has recently dropped from 300-600 yuan per pig when prices were high last year to 30-50 yuan, and some even suffered losses, compared with normal net income

The benefit should not be less than 100-150 yuan. Starting from July, piglets in many major pig-producing areas have become difficult to sell from being in short supply at the beginning of the year. In order to avoid the risk of price decline, many pig farms also engaged in panic selling

The above indicates that there may be a serious surplus of pig production in 2009. More information in the second half of 2009 Pig farming market, national pig prices

National piglet prices, how to raise pigs to make the most money, ecological pig farming, pig subsidy, please search on Baidu (animal husbandry 001), which has caused pig prices to fall to 00%

< p>Below this line, pig farmers have once again reduced production due to losses, and may form another round of sharp rise in meat prices sometime in 2010 at the latest.

Data over the past 30 years show that the rise and fall of pig prices often follows a pattern of "up one and two down", that is, the price downturn lasts twice as long as the price increase. At present, farmers are eager for the government to shift from stimulating pork production to protecting pig production.

“Many farmers are unwilling to work in the pig raising industry. First, they are tired, and then the risk is too great. Generally speaking, it is a high-investment, slow-returning, and risky business. It’s a big industry, so I don’t think raising pigs is a good way to start a business.”

The pig market

The price of pigs in 2008 was very dramatic. In the first half of the year, due to state subsidies and pig farming. With attractive profits, the scale of pig farming increased rapidly; in the second half of the year, due to the concentration of woolly pigs on the market, prices fell sharply, and some pig farms turned from profits to losses. It is expected that from the second half of 2008 to the first half of 2009, the national pig industry will

consolidate. During the consolidation period, the profit margin of the pig industry will be squeezed. On the whole, the national pig population has reached a certain level. scale.

Piglet market

Although the current pig price has stabilized, the profit margin is very thin, and the farmers are also very confused about the market outlook, which has prompted the vast majority of them to

The farmers lack confidence in replenishing the breeding stock, and have a strong abandonment and wait-and-see mood. Secondly, as the weather turns colder, it becomes more difficult to raise piglets and the cost of raising piglets increases, which makes many farmers reluctant to replenish their pens. Finally, the current outbreak of pig diseases in some places has caused panic among farmers, and some farmers who planned to replenish pens have also given up their original plan to replenish pens. So what will be the trend of piglet prices in the near future? Piglet prices in most areas are already very low and have basically bottomed out. There is a high possibility that piglet prices will continue to remain weak in the near future. More information in the second half of 2009 Complete pig raising market in half a year

National pig prices, national piglet prices, how to raise pigs most profitably, ecological pig farming, and pig subsidy, please search on Baidu (Animal Husbandry 001), but the decline rate is all

Not big.

Pork Market

Pork is the main non-staple food for urban and rural residents in my country. People pay more attention to traditional festivals. Influenced by the Dragon Boat Festival, Spring Festival and Mid-Autumn Festival, etc., adding

Influenced by several Golden Week holidays, pig prices tend to follow the pattern of "high at both ends and low in the middle" in each year, and the market affects the pig industry

The economic cycle is often 2 to 3 years In recent years, the impact of emergencies such as epidemics on the pig market has been far greater than the impact of the market, making the original regularity irregular, and fluctuations more frequent and irregular than before. Analysis and Outlook of the Pig Industry in 2009

1. Affected by the relationship between market supply and demand, the price of live pigs has been at a low level from 2000 to 2002.

In the first half of 2003, SARS occurred, which made the pig market difficult to circulate. Some farmers were less enthusiastic about raising pigs and eliminated some sows. In the second half of the year, they were affected by the "bird flu"

, the decline in poultry and egg consumption has led to an increase in the demand for pork. Therefore, pig prices rose in the second half of 2003, and the pig industry entered the profit zone, reaching its peak in September 2004.

People's enthusiasm for raising pigs has been greatly enhanced, and they are actively replenishing pens. In 2004, the supply of breeding pigs at major pig breeding farms exceeded demand. Due to the large increase in the number of reproductive sows, pig prices began to fall rapidly in September 2005. By June 2006, the pig-to-grain ratio dropped to 4.37:1, the lowest point since 2000. The pig industry was at a loss, and farmers eliminated fertile sows in large numbers. The outbreak of Streptococcus in Sichuan and the occurrence of "unnamed pig fever" from south to north in the country after May 2006 have made the pig industry even worse. The number of pigs has decreased, and pig farmers of all sizes are afraid to replenish the pigs. At this time, consumers did not dare to eat pork. Although the number of reproductive sows and live pigs dropped significantly, the price of pork did not rebound in a short period of time. It was not until the end of 2006 that the pig market began to rebound. At the same time, the highly pathogenic PRRS caused sows to suffer miscarriages or stillbirths and the piglet survival rate was low, which fundamentally aggravated

In addition to the shortage of live pigs and the difficulty in resuming production, various reasons are bound to cause the price of live pigs to soar in 2007.

2. There were originally a large number of free-range pig farmers engaged in the pig industry, with low levels of breeding technology, low ability to respond to sudden epidemics, and low ability to withstand market fluctuations

The pig industry has a long production cycle, large investment, and disease risks are greater than market risks. In addition, the scale of my country's pig industry is low, which will affect the stability of my country's pig industry.

3. Feed costs account for about 70% of the general pig raising costs. Most of the feed costs are corn and soybean meal, and the prices of corn and soybean meal respectively increased from

2005 to 2000. Yuan/ton has risen to around 4,000 yuan/ton now, and there is a shortage of piglets. The cost of piglets has increased to 400-600 yuan/head, accounting for half of the cost of raising pigs. Other electricity, labor, equipment and other expenses are increasing to varying degrees. These have had a great impact on the pig market

.

4. In the first half of 2007, the price of live pigs was 3-4 yuan/kg, and the pig-to-grain ratio was 5.22:1. Pig raising was in the profit zone, but affected by the epidemic in 2006

People's enthusiasm for replenishing pens is still low. Sales of purebred sows and binary sows are very low, and there are basically no new pens or replenishment of pens. After May 2007

, the price of live pigs has been running at a high price. This is mainly due to the continued low price of live pigs in the past few years. More information on the complete pig raising market in the second half of 2009

National Pig Prices National Piglet Prices How to Raise Pigs Most Profitably Ecological Pig Farming Pig Subsidies Please Go to Baidu Search (Animal Husbandry 001) Fans, Feeding Costs

Continuously rising and the occurrence of highly pathogenic pigs in some areas The influence of factors such as PRRS has caused a decrease in the number of pigs raised and slaughtered in my country, resulting in insufficient supply of pigs and a sharp increase in pig prices. A series of relevant policies issued by the state to promote the development of the pig industry

have played an important role in promoting pig production and stabilizing market supply. They have also greatly strengthened people's enthusiasm for replenishing pens and can breed sows< /p>

Colonists also began to increase. However, due to the shortage of piglets, plagued by epidemic diseases, increased breeding costs, and market uncertainty, the enthusiasm of farmers to replenish pigs is still affected, and it is difficult for the pig breeding volume to recover and achieve significant growth in the short term. .

Live pig prices will continue to fall, but the decline may slow down and may stabilize by June and July. The fundamental reason for this drop in meat prices is excess supply and reduced demand. More information on the supply brought about by the increase in the number of live pigs and sows in 2008. The national pig raising market in the second half of 2009

The national pig price The pressure to search for Baidu (Animal Husbandry 001) will be concentrated in the first half of 2009.

Based on the reproduction and growth cycle of pigs, analysts predict that after June and July, as the pressure on pork supply weakens, prices will stabilize.

Analysis and Outlook of the Pig Industry in 2009

II. Countermeasures

The pig industry itself is a high investment, long cycle, high risk and low benefit Vulnerable industries need the support and guidance of the state, otherwise they cannot achieve a balance between production and sales. As far as this industry is concerned, if it wants to develop smoothly and steadily, appropriate guarantees and timely regulation by the state are necessary. . (2009

Pig raising market forecast)

1. Many farmers now suffer from poor information and have no way of knowing the market supply situation, so pig raising is in a blind state. , the government should introduce relevant measures and carry out relevant construction, and establish a complete information system so that the majority of farmers can easily obtain various relevant information

.

2. It is necessary to consider establishing an industry access system, which will help entrants consider the cost of entry and enter and develop production more rationally. At the same time

implement a registration system for breeding pigs and sows and provide macro guidance. When there are few sows, macro-control and other measures can be used to promote sow production and develop

their number; When there are many sows, effective control will be carried out to adjust the number of commercial pigs for slaughter, so as to achieve a balance between supply and demand in the market.

3. Finance should provide support for basic construction, such as establishing an insurance system, building a service system, building and improving the epidemic prevention system, and economical

organizations, etc., which can be relatively complete in the association organization Under the premise of implementing a company + farmers or an association to organize farmers to implement specialized production

, this can improve the product quality of free-range farmers on the one hand, and on the other hand, it can also help to integrate their individual Weaknesses are turned into collective strengths in response to market changes

It allows farmers to concentrate on breeding and enables the entire industry to truly achieve a healthy connection with society, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry.

4. Breeding community is a transformation from decentralization to concentration. It involves many animals being raised in one community, which makes it difficult to control diseases and environment

pollution. Breeding communities are an excessive form of development from free-range farmers to large-scale farming. After a period of development, they have become a past form. In the future, breeding communities should be gradually eliminated and developed towards specialized and standardized farms.

5. Efforts should be made to change the current concept of disease control, adjust the ideas of prevention and control, strengthen the concept of "nurturing is more important than prevention, prevention is more important than treatment", and large-scale pig farms, Due to the high breeding density and imperfect environmental facilities, pigs are often in a state of stress, which makes them have low immunity and cannot resist the invasion of external pathogens. However, for free-range farmers, due to technology and breeding, The concept is backward and the breeding environment is poor. For more information on the pig raising market in the second half of 2009

National pig prices, national piglet prices, how to raise pigs most profitably, ecological pig farming, and pig farming subsidies, please search on Baidu (animal husbandry 001) The disease resistance of pigs

is also weakened. Therefore, in the future, we should gradually change the feeding techniques and methods during the breeding process to gradually improve the disease resistance of pigs.

Analysis and Outlook of the Pig Industry in 2009

Three Response Plans

The best time to avoid losses in 2009 has not yet completely passed, so we should strive to avoid losses in 2009 Before the Spring Festival at the end of January, we will sell as many pigs as possible, including sows with poor production performance, to reduce the number of pigs to a minimum. Now is the most unsuitable time for fattening pig farmers to restock commercial piglets

, and it is also the time when market risks are greatest.

Before the pig market came out of the downturn in 2009, especially in the later period of losses, when a large number of sows were culled, it was the best time to restock sows

For those with sufficient financial strength You can take the opportunity to "buy the dip". Reasonably avoid market risks while seizing the best opportunities.

In short, after decades of ups and downs in the pig industry, especially the experiences and lessons brought to people by the impact of various epidemic diseases, combined with the backward varieties of my country's pig industry, And mainly small farmers and free-range farmers, the pig industry will inevitably move towards a new historical period of large-scale breeding, improved varieties, stable profits, green feed

and product safety. , to realize more information about my country's pig farming, pig farming market situation in the second half of 2009, national pig prices

National piglet prices, how to raise pigs most profitably, ecological pig farming, pig farming subsidies, please search on Baidu (Animal Husbandry 001) The quality, efficiency and safety of the industry

Pig raising market in 2009

Before the pig market came out of the downturn in 2009, especially in the later period of losses, when a large number of sows were culled, it was a supplementary It is the best time to pen sows. Those with sufficient financial strength can take the opportunity to "buy the bottom". Reasonably avoid market risks while seizing the best opportunities.

The biggest risks are

First, a widespread epidemic of swine diseases

Second, large-scale pig farmers compete with independent farmers in a price war

Third, the state's macro-control of agriculture promotes rising food prices, which will directly lead to rising feed prices. However, if pig prices are not good, there is too much room for rising, leading to a decline in profits!

Fourth, there is no favorable guarantee for the breed of piglets purchased from other places

Pig-raising subsidies

Every year, there will be a certain quota in the county (a few households), directly subsidizing pig farmers. Of course, most of the time it’s given to acquaintances. Each household can receive a maximum of 150,000. The main subsidy is 100 yuan per sow, and the other is the free distribution of vaccines. Just contact the Animal Husbandry Bureau. There are also small loans. You need to contact the association for feed subsidies and Housing subsidies The local government provides door-to-door censuses. Every pig in our house has a registration number, so you can

apply for subsidies. There is a mark on the pig's ear. ...

Second Ecological Pig Raising

Why can the fermentation bed improve economic benefits?

1. It is possible to obtain government subsidies...

2. This pig-raising technology is highly efficient...

3. Pig-raising market in 2009

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Before the pig market came out of the downturn in 2009, especially in the later period of losses, when a large number of sows were culled, it was the best time to restock sows.

Those with sufficient financial strength can borrow Machine "buy the bottom". Reasonably avoid market risks while seizing the best opportunities. ……

Four, in which month was the price of pigs relatively high?

From June to July 2009, the price of live pigs is estimated to be relatively stable and slightly declining because the current live pig market still has room for decline. The price of piglets is still falling. Many farmers who have upgraded to large-scale pig farms are now reducing the scale of pig farming. More about the pig farming market in 2009, how to raise pigs most profitably

To apply for pig raising subsidies, please search for the national pig price and the national piglet price on Baidu (Animal Husbandry 001)