Among them, in the corn market, after the Lantern Festival, due to the high risk of selling corn, the loose grass-roots tide grain, the sluggish demand of enterprises, and the weak support of strong supply and weak demand, grain-using enterprises mainly consume inventory, and the phenomenon of falling grain prices increases. In Northeast China, North China and Huanghuai area, corn quotations fluctuate downward!
In the wheat market, since the Lantern Festival, the decline in wheat prices has become more firm, and milling enterprises have also turned from tentative price reduction to comprehensive price reduction, and the focus of domestic spot wheat prices has dropped sharply. At present, the listed prices of some milling enterprises in Shandong, Hebei and Henan have fallen to about 1.55~ 1.57 yuan/kg!
Now, February is coming to an end. In the domestic grain market, the price of wheat has fallen into a "quagmire", and the price is still in the stage of downward adjustment. For the corn market, the market has gradually shown a performance of stopping falling and rising. The quotations of deep processing enterprises in Northeast China, North China and Huanghuai areas have quietly increased. So, what happened to the market?
As far as the wheat market is concerned, from the trend after the Spring Festival, the price of wheat has fallen to the bottom. Before the Spring Festival, the domestic spot wheat price was sideways at 1.6~ 1.64 yuan/kg. However, after the Lantern Festival, the price decline of wheat rebounded. At present, the mainstream quotation has bottomed out at1kg.
This round of wheat prices went down like a sluice, and the quotations of mainstream milling enterprises gradually approached 1.55 yuan/kg. The market pessimism was high, grain farmers and traders were affected by the warmer weather, the prospect of wheat was uncertain, the phenomenon of "selling down" increased sharply, and the circulation of wheat in the market was loose. Recently, grain depots, temporary storage wheat and the lowest purchase price of wheat from all over the world have continuously entered the market, further increasing the supply of wheat in the market!
On the demand side, due to the poor delivery of flour downstream of flour milling enterprises, the rhythm of replenishment by dealers is slow, the inventory pressure of flour milling enterprises increases sharply, and the bran market falls, and the raw grain consumption of enterprises is slow. In order to pass on the cost, the sentiment of lowering prices and collecting grain has increased sharply, and the domestic spot wheat price has fallen!
Strong supply and weak demand in the market have supported the decline of spot wheat market. However, since the summer harvest last year, the wheat price has remained at a high level. At present, the cost price of wheat delivery from some distributors is generally 1.59~ 1.6 yuan/kg, while the listed quotation of enterprises has now fallen to1.555 ~1.
However, judging from the recent performance of two-way wheat purchase and sale in China, at present, the price of wheat imported from grain reserves and grain depots around the country is generally around 3 100 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to 1.55 yuan/kg. Personally, I think that the bottom support of wheat price still exists, and the market will enter the market after the quotation of milling enterprises generally touches 1.55 yuan/kg.
In the corn market, recently, the decline of corn has gradually turned off, and many places have shown the performance of stopping falling and rising, and the price of corn has fluctuated and risen, which also means that the risk of selling corn in the stage of tidal grain has decreased!
It is understood that last year, most of the corn dealers built warehouses ended in losses. Therefore, this year, the distributors were more cautious. During the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, the listing of tidal grain was greatly relaxed, and the domestic spot wheat price fell below 1.5 yuan/kg. After entering the Spring Festival, due to the rapid listing of grass-roots corn, feed and deep-processing enterprises mainly consumed inventory, and the distributors and deep-processing enterprises were cautious in building warehouses, the spot corn price continued to fall!
However, with the acceleration of the listing of surplus grain at the grass-roots level, at present, the progress of selling grain at the grass-roots level in the northeast of corn producing areas, North China and Huanghuai areas has generally reached 60-70%, the surplus grain at the grass-roots level has decreased, the risk of selling tide grain in Northeast China has been greatly weakened, and the circulation of corn in the market has decreased. In Shandong, enterprises have been hovering at a low level for several days. With the continuous consumption of factory inventory, the demand for replenishment by enterprises has increased sharply, and the domestic spot corn price has quietly increased!
Personally, in the short term, the long-short game in the corn market will be more obvious! On the supply side, because there is still moist grain at the grass-roots level, the snow in Northeast China will be gradually consumed, and a small amount of surplus grain will be sold centrally, so there is a certain selling pressure risk in the market. In North China and Huanghuai area, it is more difficult to store moist grain at the grass-roots level, the risk of moisture regain will increase, and the quantity of corn will still increase. Therefore, the supply side is relatively loose, but the market sentiment has influenced the rhythm of selling moist grain corn;
On the demand side, by the end of February, China's grain reserves have been building warehouses to collect grain, and the inventory of distributors and deep processing enterprises is low, which will also enter the cycle of building warehouses. Due to the high international food prices and the high cost of imported corn, the scale of corn imports will be reduced, while there is a gap in domestic corn supply. Therefore, the demand side is about to enter the stage of building warehouses in an all-round way, and the demand for corn will increase, which will also have some support for the spot corn price!
Therefore, under the long-short game, the price of corn may enter the stage of ups and downs. With the further reduction of surplus grain at the grassroots level, the price center of gravity will gradually move up!
The weather has changed? Corn rose quietly, but wheat fell into the "quagmire". What happened? What do you think of this? The above is my personal opinion!