Despite the fact that pork prices have recently declined to some extent, but have not yet recovered to the first half of 2019 pork price situation, remember that the first half of 2020 to buy raw pork must only be 15 yuan a catty up and down, compared to the current stage of the increase in the price of not only double. So, when will pork prices return to all normal prices?

A while ago, pork prices continued to fall for 10 weeks, allowing many customers to gradually hope for the Spring Festival big mouth meat scene. In fact, as early as September gradually, pork prices across the country is a declining trend, some of the pig source of sufficient geographic areas, and even fell to more than a dozen yuan a catty, and at this stage of the price of pork has long been less than the same period of time compared to the level . According to the latest developments in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the second week of November, the price of pork across the country's farmers market fell to 46.47 yuan for 1 kilogram, which is also in September so far, the price of pork has continued to decline for 2 and a half months.

What is the reason for the continued decline in pork prices?

1, breeding sows and hogs stock faster

According to the test, in October, breeding sows stock 39.5 million, continued to 13 months to improve, compared with the same period of 32%; hogs stocked 387 million, continued to 9 months to improve, compared with the same period of 27%. At this stage, the production capacity of live hogs has long since recovered to around 88% of what it was at the end of 2017. This shows that market demand is slowly becoming more relaxed, causing pork prices to fall sharply.

2, the promotion of imported pork and intermediate reserve meat

The promotion of imported pork and intermediate reserve meat has also raised the sales market of raw pork supplement, regulating the price of pork . Data information shows that from January to September 2020 in China **** imported pork 328.6 million tons, an increase of 132.2% year-on-year. On the Chinese storage network in the past public statistical analysis, as of the end of September, within the year has been promoted 35 times in the middle of the storage of frozen pork, a total of 600,000 tons of input volume.

3, the requirement of soft skin

The current stage of the New Year's Day Spring Festival consumption season is also a period of time, and therefore the current sales market for the consumption of raw pork is not high requirements. In addition, the government departments to stabilize the price of hogs, part of the geographical area will appear a certain subsidy control, resulting in a decline in the price of hogs.

When will pork prices return to all normal prices?

According to statistics, pork prices will not return to normal until 2021.

Recently, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a "three-year action program to accelerate the development trend of live pig production and manufacturing recovery". In which clearly put forward the overall goal of live pig production and manufacturing recovery, that is, in 2020 to resist the trend of declining pig stocks as early as possible, to ensure that before the end of the year to stop falling back up, to ensure that in 2020 the New Year's Day and the Spring Festival and around the country "national two sessions" period of the pork market demand basically stable; guarantee that before the end of the year in 2020 The production capacity will be basically restored to a level close to the long-term level by the end of 2020, and all normalcy will be restored in 2021.

Zhu Zengyong, an associate researcher at the Beijing Veterinary Research Office of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, predicted that hog prices across the country will fluctuate again until December. Into the production of salted meat after the season, the consumer market for raw pork will be enhanced in stages,promoting cyclical rebound in hog prices, but the rebound indoor space is relatively limited. In 2021, hog prices will show high before and low after the market, the higher may happen before the Spring Festival, the third quarter may slowly close to the long-term total demand.

Overall, the recent drop in pork prices has been key to the recovery of supplies and softening of consumption, which is actually expected based on the sales market. After the arrival of the New Year's Day and Spring Festival consumption season, the price of pork may enter a small increase, but the space is relatively limited, for the recovery to the previous total demand, it is estimated until the third quarter of 2021.

What geographical pork price reduction at this stage?

According to an incomplete statistical analysis, the following geographic areas have seen some reduction in pork prices.

1, Kunming City from November gradually, Kunming hog prices have some decline,17 has long been down to 1 kg 27 yuan.

2, Shenzhen Based on the Shenzhen Futian District, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, the larger wholesale market of agricultural and sideline products found that the retail price of pork in Shenzhen has a significant decline, a catty to be cheaper five or six dollars.

3, Guangzhou City Around November 21, in Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, several comprehensive sales market to see, the price of pork compared to the average value of not long ago a catty down 3-5 yuan.

4, Beijing ? Around November 22, Beijing in late October, the average value of raw pork manufacturers wholesale at 25.13 yuan a catty,recently a catty price reduction to 19.75 yuan a catty.

The increase in the price of pork, resulting in many ordinary people can not afford to buy raw pork, looking forward to the price of pork as soon as possible can be restored to the previous all normal price.