From the perspective of industry cycle, 202 1 pig breeding industry has entered a "loss cycle". With the continuous decline in pork prices, even many pig enterprises have turned from previous profits to losses.
Judging from the third quarter reports released by several listed pig enterprises, the accumulated losses of Mu Yuan, Wenshi, Zhengbang Technology, New Hope and Tianbang are close to 20 billion yuan, not to mention other farmers.
However, the good news for farmers came, that is, when the domestic pork price continued to fall, the official hand began to regulate and control, and the storage and storage of frozen pork also started. And under the influence of many factors, domestic pork prices have rebounded, especially after entering 10.
Some experts said that with the official regulation, the gradual development of purchasing and storage, the market regains confidence and the demand for pork consumption increases, the price of pigs is expected to continue to rise in the future.
From the data point of view, after entering 10, pork prices ushered in a more Big bounce. The price once rose as high as 57% in about 20 days. Many people question whether the price of pork has reached an "inflection point". Does it mean that this decline cycle has ended and a new round of rise is about to begin?
The data shows that as of June 25th, 10, the average slaughter price of lean pigs in China has risen to 16. 19 yuan/kg, which is more than 50% higher than 10.29 yuan/kg at the beginning of October.
Some experts pointed out that looking down, pork prices do not have the basis for a sharp rise, and the rise during this period is only a short-term rebound. At present, China's pig production has exceeded the normal year, reaching about 1 10% of the normal year, and the market is in a state of oversupply. Under such circumstances, there is no possibility of a sharp rise.
Statistics show that in the third quarter, 49 1.39 million pigs were slaughtered, up 35.9% year-on-year, pork production increased by 22.4%, and 437.64 million pigs were slaughtered, up 18.2% year-on-year. These data reflect that China's pork market is well supplied, so residents need not worry too much.
When pork prices rose sharply in China before, many people rushed in and many farmers also expanded their production capacity. There is a huge hog market in China now, and it will take a long time to consume the surplus market in the future.
There are also data showing that the number of live pigs has gradually climbed to 440 million, which is the highest level since 10. Even because of the overcapacity of pigs, China has issued relevant "early warning" to speed up the elimination of low-yield sows and arrange for pigs to be slaughtered in an orderly manner.
Some experts predict that this period is only a short-term rebound in pig prices, and it is expected that it will reach a small peak from the end of the year to the Spring Festival. However, after the Spring Festival next year, the price is at risk of falling back.