At a time when the global food crisis is constantly warning and getting worse, there has been a surprising scene in global food prices recently.

Recently, Chicago agricultural futures prices ushered in a full-line decline.

Corn prices fell by 3. 1% to close at $7.54/bushel, the lowest point since April 7;

The price of wheat fell by 6. 1%, and even once fell, and finally closed at 10.88 USD/bushel, the lowest level since the beginning of May.

Soybean fell by 2.8%, which was the biggest decline since April 1 1 day.

As we all know, under the mutual influence of multiple reasons, such as the fluctuation of global energy and fertilizer market, global food prices are constantly rising, and food crises are constantly being warned. While people are worried about food security, why did food prices suddenly fall across the board?

Careful analysis shows that the collective decline in food prices is mainly affected by several news:

1, Russia expressed its willingness to help restore the Black Sea port transportation.

In the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, in addition to the expected reduction in grain production caused by the sharp drop in grain planting in Ukraine, another important impact is that after the conflict broke out, the entire Black Sea port was closed, making it impossible for Ukraine to transport a large amount of grain.

Earlier, it was reported that about 25 million tons of grain in Ukraine could not be shipped out.

On the other hand, in the case of rising food prices and freight rates, the sentiment of food protectionism in many countries is rising, which makes the global food supply face a tense situation.

At this time, Russia recently expressed its willingness to help restore maritime transportation, including Ukraine's food exports.

It is influenced by this news that the market has expected the recovery of important transportation channels in Russia and Ukraine.

2. The sowing progress of American spring wheat has greatly increased.

As we said before, in the global grain market, the wheat market fluctuates the most, because both Russia and Ukraine are important exporters of wheat. Previously, India, France, etc. all reduced their wheat production expectations due to the weather, and India tightened the export of wheat, making the wheat market even more tense.

Previously, American wheat also faced the expectation of large-scale production reduction.

On the one hand, winter wheat is affected by severe dry weather, and Kansas, which has the highest wheat yield in the United States, is devastated by extreme dry weather. Thousands of acres of wheat wither, and the yield is expected to drop by more than 1/4. On the other hand, North Dakota, which produces half of the spring wheat in the United States, is just the opposite. Because of too much precipitation, it is impossible to sow normally, and the sowing progress was once seriously slow.

However, after entering this week, the sowing situation of spring wheat has obviously improved.

The current sowing progress has also reached 73% beyond expectations, which is a sharp increase compared with 49% last week.

In addition, Australia has also ushered in good news, indicating that the amount of wheat sown is expected to increase by 1.4%.

Affected by these news, the price of wheat dropped significantly.

3, multiple good news superposition

This includes Russia's previous statement that due to good weather, this year's grain harvest will be a record, and the total grain output will reach1.300 million tons, while the wheat production will reach a record 87 million tons, and the export volume will increase to 41000 million tons.

Secondly, Brazil, a big grain country in South America, recently said that its fertilizer reserves are sufficient to ensure that it can be supplied until next year.

In addition, the latest planting report released by the United States shows that as of last week, 86% of corn planting and 66% of soybean planting have been completed, and in the next month, the weather is good, and there is no extreme weather that seriously threatens the growth of crops.

So under the multiple news, the prices of wheat, corn and soybeans fell.

4. Has the grain risk warning been lifted?

With the improvement of grain supply and the decline of grain across the board, does it mean that the early warning of global food risks has been lifted?

At present, I'm afraid it's too early to make such a judgment.

We have comprehensively analyzed before that the rise of food prices is influenced by multiple factors, such as global inflation, the mismatch between supply and demand caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and the impact of rising energy prices on the food market, etc., and the superposition of these factors has produced new effects, pushing up global food prices together.

And at present, it is difficult for any of these factors to return to normal in the short term, which means that the impact still exists.

In addition, this year's weather factors can not be ignored. The current growing season has just begun, and there is still much room for change in the subsequent weather level. Therefore, the current decline in food prices does not mean that the early warning of the global food crisis has been lifted, and the market trend in the next few months is still critical.

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