Who is responsible for the "tragic fall" in pig prices, pig farmers, slaughter enterprises and consumers and who can benefit from it?

Pig prices fell 15.8% in a single month

The pig price system shows that the current national average price of three yuan hogs is 24.16 yuan/kg, compared with 28.52 yuan/kg in the same period in October, a drop of 15.8%.

By the impact of the decline in pig prices, self-propagation farms out of a 130-kilogram fat pig profit to shrink 566.8 yuan.

The good thing is that the current cost price of hog farming is basically at 17-18 yuan per kilogram, and the current price allows farmers to still have some profit.

Pig prices "tragic fall" who's fault?

Farmers only over!

The fall in pig prices has a large part of the responsibility lies in the pig farmers themselves, many people may not understand, pig farmers are looking forward to the price of pigs, why the price of pigs fell they still have a responsibility?

In recent years by the impact of the plague, pig prices fluctuate a lot, just 3, 4 years, the price of pigs had soared to 44 yuan / kg, but also fell to 12 yuan / kg, some people borrowed to raise pigs, "overnight wealth", but also some people because of pig farming, "the bottom of the family lost! "

Earned money want to make more money, lost money want to return to the capital, under the sway of this idea, farmers have completely forgotten the lesson of the tragic fall in pig prices and loss of capital in mid-2021, when the price of pigs began to rise in July and August, to raise large pigs, the purchase of standardized pigs secondary pig fattening farms continue to emerge, this operation makes the price of pigs in the rise of the price of pigs rose even more ferocious, the price of pigs rose the more ferocious, the second fattening of the passion is The higher the price of hogs, the passion for secondary fertilization is, thus entering into a cycle of more and more hoarding.

But this cycle can't go on forever, and now is the "day" when it won't go on.

With the fall in pig prices, farmers pressed to sell the idea of "collapse", the big fat concentrated on the market, coupled with the group farms to accelerate the standard pigs, so that the market standard pigs and big fat to form a stampede, resulting in the price of pigs, "tragic fall".

The recent decline in pig prices as early as July and August this year has been buried in the ambush.

Slaughterhouse's fault!

Slaughtering enterprises, as a relative monopoly, has the pricing power of hogs and pork, for the slaughtering enterprises, the higher the price of hogs, the lower their profits, and vice versa, the higher the profits.

Because the price of hogs is cheap, the consumption of pork is relatively good, after the increase in the volume of pork, the slaughtering cost of a single hog will decrease, and pork can be maintained at a relatively high price, and will not cause a strong reaction from the market, the price difference in the middle of the butchery enterprises is high, and the profit of slaughtering is high.

Slaughterhouse is always the party that depresses the price of pigs, and in this recent period, with the concentration of hogs at the breeding end of the slaughterhouse, the difficulty of collecting pigs has decreased significantly, and naturally opened the price pressure mode.

So the decline in pig prices, the slaughterhouse can not be blamed.

The consumer's fault!

Pig prices rise and fall in addition to the supply side and intermediaries, but also with the consumer side, the sharp fall in pig prices and consumer spending is not high, resulting in a consumer downturn are mainly due to the following reasons:

1, the weather this year is not strong, the overall temperature of the South is higher than in previous years, which is very unfavorable for the production of bacon, sausage, so that the consumption of pork to lose a short period of time. favorable.

2, the recent epidemic "multi-point blossom", restaurants, hotels were forced to shut down, pork terminal food and beverage consumption overall downturn.

3, these two years because of the impact of the epidemic, daily expenses in the increase, but income is declining, making the residents of the "pocketbook" tight, superimposed on the previous price of pork as high as more than 40 kilograms, consumers want to eat is a little "can not afford to eat".

Of course, the decline in pig prices in addition to butchering enterprises, pig farmers and consumers three related, there is a very important reason, that is, the country's macro-control, on the one hand, interviewed the pig enterprise requirements to maintain the pace of the pen, on the other hand, to put the reserve meat environmental market pressure on the supply of pork, in the "offer stabilization of the supply of" under the main theme! The price of hogs from the excessive rise of the first level of warning down to the second level of warning.

Who benefits?

The sharp fall in pig prices, the most direct benefit to consumers.

According to media reports, the recent drop in pork prices has been more than 20 percent, and the average price of pork in the national wholesale market has fallen to 16.7 yuan.

In the first half of December, Southwest and South China will usher in the demand for preserved meat, the second half of the Christmas and New Year's Day consumer demand, and in January there is the Spring Festival consumer demand, to eat meat when the price of meat down.

Of course, slaughtering companies can also benefit from this.

With the fall in pork prices, the media reported that consumers around the procurement of pork enthusiasm increased significantly, pork sales increased, helping to reduce the cost of slaughtering enterprises, and changes in pork prices tend to lag behind changes in pig prices, that is to say, the decline in pig prices is always greater than the rate of decline in pork, slaughtering enterprises can earn more from the difference in price.

Farmers can also benefit? Although the profits of farmers shrink after the fall in pig prices, farmers must not be the beneficiaries if they look at the immediate benefits close to home, but it's different in the long run.

The recent "tragic fall" in hog prices, superimposed on the interval between New Year's Day and the Spring Festival break, farmers in order to lock in the profits will certainly accelerate the fence, which will alleviate to a certain extent before the Spring Festival hogs oversupply of pressure, so that the original difficult to rise in the price of hogs, on the contrary, may usher in the opportunity to rise.

Longer term, pig prices fell to about 12 yuan, farming profits have been less than 1,000 yuan, taking into account next year's feed prices may be more expensive, farming costs are higher, the increase in pig inventory after the non-plague prevention and control difficulties, breeding risk is higher, some of the replenishment plan farmers may give up replenishment, and even take advantage of the price of pigs is relatively high, eliminating some of the low-capacity sows, which will have a negative impact on the price of pigs in the second quarter of 2023. The pig price in the second quarter of 2023 is favorable.

Farmers should not complain about the current drop in hog prices, we can understand that the current drop is for a better rise next year, after all, there is a big fall, there is a big rise.

Looking ahead to the pig industry in 2023

By the impact of the rise in pig prices in recent months, the breeding sows inventory continues to increase, the latest data show that the end of the third quarter of 2022 breeding sows inventory has reached 43.62 million, 2.62 million more than the 41 million retained, the probability of October and November sows inventory is still continuing to rise! .

Hog supply is expected to be at a high level in the first half of next year, and taking into account that the first half of the year is in the trough of pork consumption, the probability that pig prices will fall further on the basis of the recent decline, and may even fall below the cost line.

But the first half of the decline in hog prices is difficult to make the breeding end of the large-scale elimination of sows, because the trend of pig prices in 2022 is to fall first and then rise, the breeding end is likely to be optimistic about the second half of the market because of inertia once again.

But taking into account the second half of the seasonal consumption rebound will form a certain support for the price of hogs, when the price of hogs will hopefully rise back to the level of 10-11 yuan.