We are witnessing the end of an era.
July 29, sip feed issued a half-year warning announcement, reported that the Group expects the first half of 2021 revenue compared to the same period last year, an increase of about 59%; the company attributable to the owners of the loss of 40 million yuan (RMB) to 60 million yuan (RMB), compared with the same period last year, the loss decreased by about 80%.
In addition, Gluttony also announced that the company expects to close about 200 loss-making stores under the Gluttony brand throughout the year.
From the point of view of the capital market, Gluttony from 27.15 Hong Kong dollars / shares of the peak, nearly half a year in the fall of nearly 70%, the total market value evaporated more than 20 billion Hong Kong dollars.
Another big hot pot giant Haidilao's days are not easy. July 25, Haidilao issued a profit warning, although the epidemic after the turnaround, but the first half of the net profit of only 80 million yuan to 100 million yuan. Dragged by this news, Haidilao shares fell 16.69%, the market value of a single day evaporated 37.9 billion Hong Kong dollars.
Earlier, Haidilao announced on March 1, 2019 net profit of 2.347 billion yuan, 2020 year-on-year decline of about 90%.
Over the years, Haidilao share price from the peak of 85.80 Hong Kong dollars, all the way down to 28.95 Hong Kong dollars a few days ago, the market value of more than 300 billion Hong Kong dollars evaporated from the highest in February.
Such decadent performance, or that the scenery, called "Haidilao you can not learn" of the industry leader?
As the leader of the hot pot industry, why are these two companies more and more miserable?
A
Although the two companies have different modes of routes, but the decline of their performance, all point to the same point - for the past blindfolded wild running, pay a huge price.
In the midst of the epidemic, Zhang Yong completed an adventure of "greed when others are afraid". 2020, Haidilao opened an average of 1.49 new stores per day, a net increase of 530 stores.
In terms of expansion, Gluttony has not been idle. 2017 to 2020, the total number of stores were 759, 934, 1022 and 1061. The non-stop expansion has directly led to a significant increase in the cost of Gluttony, and its staff costs have risen from 830 million yuan to 1.48 billion yuan in four years.
He has said that in order to ensure the quality of service, no more than 30 new stores will be added each year. The hotpot brand's first 24 years of development totaled fewer than 500 stores, but it began a wild ride in 2019, opening 308 new stores in a single year.
At this stage, Haidilao mainly opens new stores to increase market share, thus driving overall growth. Haidilao's crazy expansion speed is reflected in the soaring number of stores, in 2016, Haidilao only had 176 stores worldwide, and by 2020, the number jumped directly to 1,298.
"I am greedy when others are fearful" is about following the trend. Seeing the real trend that others don't see is the only way to win the bet.
But expanding during an epidemic would have been an overconfident and not wise move. Expansion during the consumer chill at home would have resulted in a diversion of existing stores, while new stores would have struggled to make quick gains, which naturally meant a continued decline in turnover.
The so-called turnover rate, refers to the table repeat use rate, turnover rate is higher, represents a limited time to receive more guests. This was previously a core strength that Haidilao was proud of.
But in recent years, the turnover rate of Haidilao has been deteriorating, and the turnover rate of Haidilao was 5.0 times/day in both 2017 and 2018, and the average turnover rate of Haidilao declined to 4.8 times/day in 2019, and slipped to 3.5 times/day in 2020.
Even after the outbreak got better, Haidilao's turnover rate was still falling all the way down. 2021 Haidilao's turnover rate in March was 3.5 - 3.7 times, and in April it was already below 3 times, which is definitely a red flag.
According to Guoxin Securities calculations, the turnover rate of 3 times/day is the break-even line for Haijilao single store, and if it falls below this value, it can be assumed that the store is in a state of loss.
Gluttony's situation is the same, the turnover rate of some of Gluttony's stores at the peak was as high as 7 times/day, but it has dropped to 2.8 times/day in 2018, and in 2020, it is only 1.8 times/day, and the turnover rate of the sub-brand Picao Picao slipped from 4.1 times/day in 2019 to 2.9 times/day last year.
We know that with table turnover rates languishing, companies reached out to consumers to try to make a profit by raising prices.
In the past two years, "Haidilao fancy price increase" news frequently on the hot search, such as "reduce the amount of not reduce the price" "Beef particles replaced by soybean vegetarian meat "and so on.
There are also netizens sunshine menu, the whole portion of crispy meat from 26 yuan to 44 yuan, seaweed from the original half of 11 yuan to the whole portion of 28 yuan. Some netizens said that recently two people ate 344 yuan and before the epidemic, counting discounts two people consumed less than 200 yuan
Comparing the 2020 and 2021 Haidilao's menu, the price of most dishes have been adjusted upward by 1-3 yuan. For example, the half portion of pepper and cashew flower has increased from 19 yuan to 22 yuan, and the half portion of green bamboo shoots has increased from 10 yuan to 12 yuan.
This Haidilao's earnings announcement showed that Haidilao's overall per capita customer spending rose from 105.2 yuan in 2019 to 110.1 yuan in 2020, an increase of 4.9 yuan per capita.
4.9 yuan doesn't sound like much, but hot pot as a multi-person dining event, multiplied by the number of heads, a meal is a lot more money. Combined with the 250 million customer traffic announced by Haidilao in 2020, it will be realized that the per capita consumption in Haidilao rising can create an additional 1.225 billion yuan for Haidilao.
In recent years, the per capita consumption of sip and eat stores has risen sharply, from an average of 40-50 yuan to 70-90 yuan, and some stores in first-tier cities can even reach 80-100 yuan.
Two
Fancy death away from the original heart of the product
In the two giants of the rush behind, reflecting the same fatal pain point - after the growth of the leader, is departing from the previous original heart.
First of all, Haidilao, has always been known for its service, the Internet also appeared in the "Haidilao service how perverted" big discussion.
But Haidilao in recent years seems to have forgotten - service, never just "icing on the cake"; and the product, is the key lifeblood.
Therefore, we see that over the years, Haidilao's products are more and more criticized; at the same time, it relies on the service moat, but also by more and more consumers can not stand.
On the one hand, the product is undoubtedly lackluster compared to Haidilao's service.
Compared to Bannu's maw, Haidilao does not have what is the most innovative, the most highlights of the product. Even the "exhaustion" of the industry leader, but also came up with a "copycat" of the younger brother's products.
Previously, Haidilao was questioned by netizens suspected of plagiarizing Bannu maw hot pot products, the news broke the net, once on the microblogging hot search, the topic of close to 300 million readers.
Netizens with the truth of the picture broke the news, Haidilao's plating is similar to the Bannu, the two hot pot stores, bean sprouts, hydrangea mushrooms, maw, small fritters, and other dishes plating plagiarism exists. Netizens also pointed out that the live bean sprouts of Haidilao are even copied from the copy in the Barnu well water soybean sprouts.
It is worth noting that the bottom of the sea salvage "cottage" Bannu, but also once the former unwavering imitators. At the beginning of the venture, has been in the same step to learn Haidilao. "Haidilao set up the rules, you have to do behind, you do not seem to do all wrong, the heart is not confident." Barnu boss Du Zhongbing once said.
But then the company faced enormous financial pressure, so Barnu woke up, the core of the strategy is not to rob others, but to guard themselves. Everyone went back to their own homes. "Service is not Barnu's specialty, maw and mushroom soup is." Since then, Bannu take up the banner of productism, is the service of the Haidilao "drum to drum gong to gong" declared war, and later Bannu because of the performance of the hot pot has also triggered the Haidilao Beijing hot pot store manager collective tasting to learn.
On the other hand, Haidilao most proud of the "service" is losing competitiveness.
At the beginning, everyone on the bottom of the sea this meticulous sense of service is full of freshness, but a long time, there is a full of "disturbed sense".
Young people rarely get together, so always take "dinner" as "social", naturally do not want to be disturbed by outsiders. For businesspeople, it's especially uncomfortable to be overheard when talking about business partnerships, or to be interrupted at critical moments.
What's more, the fleece comes off the sheep's back, and excessive service inevitably means additional labor expenses, and ultimately consumers have to pay for it. According to internal statements, the average cost of recruitment and training of each newcomer in the sea salvage in 1400-1800 yuan, completely independent but also more than 500 yuan, which is to eat a meal in the sea salvage for one of the important reasons why so expensive.
In short, Haidilao not only forget the "product" is the foundation of the business, the error will be the focus of the enterprise to shift; it is the wrong "service" the real meaning - - is to put themselves in the shoes of consumers.
This is the first time I've ever seen a movie where I've had a chance to be a part of the show, and I've never been a part of the show before.
Again, Gluttony, the "cost-effective" "single economy" route, this one-person pot from Taiwan, clean, fast, convenient. Used to be a lot of student party, the northern drifters hot pot favorite, in the steaming winter, eat a meal with meat and vegetables and the classic sesame sauce of the small hot pot, the price is only 30-40 yuan.
However, over the years, gluttony is no longer pro-people, to eat a meal is often 60-70 yuan, so people can not afford to eat more and more. Gluttony change the crux of the problem, probably by the influence of Haijilao. Because in the original sip feed cost-effective model, earn up money is really too slow. Gluttony a meal of 30 yuan, the bottom of the sea fish a meal of 300 yuan, to turn how many tables to catch up with the latter?
So, in 2017, sip feed official announcement from the "fast food" transition "light meals", follow the example of Haijilao, take the road of high-end (high price). Upgraded sip feed a plate of meat to 30 yuan to 40 yuan, a cup of milk tea to 20 yuan to 28 yuan, 2020 annual report shows that sip feed in the first-tier cities per capita consumption has reached 65.2 yuan. In software such as Mass Dianping, the per capita price is even higher to 70 yuan -80 yuan, and the amount of consumption in some first-tier city stores can even reach 90-100 yuan.
But consumers are not buying, and netizens commented: "Gluttony is the identity of the maid, the requirements of the princess, married home temperament is still dead bad." That is to say, sip feed originally as a main cost-effective brand, but hard to rely on the high-end route, the results of playing B can not, in turn, their own cost-effective advantage to get out of the way, the price went up, but the product and service level have become worse.
This is because, sip feed "cost-effective" impression has been y rooted in people's minds, and suddenly go up the high price route will allow consumers to produce "not worth it" feeling, "sometimes I want to eat a cheap! The flavor of the hot pot, really do not need so much 'added value'." "If you have the money, why don't you go eat other high-end hot pot brands?"
Thinking about it another way, if it's Xiaomi's product, and it's suddenly charging Apple's price, then consumers definitely won't be able to accept it either.
Lost the original heart of the gluttony, but also lost the core competitiveness of the brand to survive. No characteristics, value for money it, naturally led to the gradual loss of the customer base.
Three
The giants are running out of time
So, despite the different modes of operation, the two giants have come to the same conclusion.
So, despite the different approaches, the two giants have ended up with the same result -- more expensive and less flavorful.
In this world, there is no such thing as a giant that never falls. Especially for the highly competitive hot pot industry is so, enterprise search data show that at present the national **** 422,000 hot pot related enterprises, in recent years, the establishment of 84,000 new, of which in the business survival of 77,000.
Where the crowds are dense, the competition is fierce. Previously, there is a view that every six minutes a restaurant closes, which is not alarmist. Whether it's the closure of a large number of starred Netflix stores in recent years, or the mid-life crisis of industry leaders Haidilao and Gluttony, we can see the cruelty of this industry.
If you can't follow the laws of the market and can't grasp the roots of your business, even the industry leaders will one day be killed on the beach by the "backwash".
In this case, it seems that the time left for Haijilao, Gluttony, really not much time.
Lean management should be implemented to cut costs!