Since 20 19, the competition for talents has been staged in many cities across the country, and nearly 30 cities have introduced various policies for the introduction and settlement of talents, many of which have been relaxed again.

Some analysts pointed out that the talent policies of most cities can be directly settled. As more and more people settle down, more and more people are eligible to buy a house, which will inevitably have an impact on the local real estate market.

Experts believe that in the past two years, housing prices in many cities across the country have rebounded, especially in some second-tier cities. The most important reason is that the new talent policy has relaxed the purchase restriction policy in disguise.

Lower and lower talent standards

A few years ago, only a few second-tier cities introduced large-scale talent introduction policies, but now they are blooming everywhere, and cities from first-and second-tier cities to third-and fourth-tier cities are vying for talents. At the same time, the policy has become more and more relaxed, and even evolved from talent competition to labor competition.

According to the Beijing News, Gaobeidian City, Hebei Province recently issued the "Implementation Opinions on Supporting the Development of Private Economy", which mentioned: "Graduates with college education or above (including higher vocational education), professional and technical personnel and skilled personnel above intermediate level introduced by enterprises; Enterprises should introduce recruited managers according to the needs of development; The registered legal representatives, department managers, shareholders, directors and supervisors of enterprises and individual merchants that implement the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development strategy, as well as the promoters and responsible persons of public welfare organizations of social organizations, are allowed to purchase a set of commercial housing in our city (not allowed to be listed and traded within 3 years). "

Gaobeidian City is located in the triangle of Beijing, Tianjin and Baoding, close to xiong'an new area, which is attractive to buyers in Beijing and Hebei. As early as 2065438+May 2007, Gaobeidian introduced the property market purchase restriction policy. If you are not registered in Gaobeidian, you need to provide tax payment certificates or social insurance payment for three years or more, and the purchase limit is 1 set.

According to the statistics of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, as of a few days ago, nearly 30 cities have issued policies for the introduction and settlement of various talents in 20 19. Looking at the talent policy in recent years, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, analyzed that the new talent policy of 20 17 was mainly concentrated in a few second-tier cities. In 20 18, more than 100 cities at different levels issued talent policies. By 20 19, the talent policy has basically blossomed everywhere, the number of cities that have tasted the sweetness has been increasing, and the talent standard has gradually decreased, which has largely begun to become a labor dispute.

The Sino-Singapore Jingwei client combed and found that in terms of academic talents, the settlement standards in many places have been reduced to secondary school education. Since the release of the talent policy, Xi has attracted much attention. By the end of 20 18, the newly settled population exceeded1050,000. 2065438+February 2009, Xi 'an relaxed the settlement conditions again. Secondary vocational schools (including technical schools) can settle down after graduation, and bachelor degree or above is no longer restricted by age.

Xie Yifeng, president of China Urban Real Estate Research Institute, told the client of Sino-Singapore Jingwei that the centralized introduction of talent policy in recent years is not only related to the increasingly fierce economic competition among cities, but also affected by the property market purchase restriction policy. He said that the cities that introduced talent and household registration policies are basically the same as those that implemented the policy of restricting purchases and loans, and the number is relatively consistent.

Talent policy disturbs the property market

Since 20 16, the first-and second-tier cities and some third-and fourth-tier cities have basically implemented the purchase restriction policy, shutting out foreigners without household registration, social security or individual tax for a certain period of time, which can be described as a "sharp weapon" to cool down the property market. The talent introduction and household registration loosening policies in major cities across the country have allowed some people to bypass the purchase restriction. With the lower and lower talent standards, more people can easily obtain the qualification to buy a house.

20 18 Lu Qiang (pseudonym), a native of Henan province, went to work in Shanghai after graduation. Near the end of the year, he decided to buy a house in Zhengzhou, the provincial capital. Although there is no Zhengzhou household registration, under the guidance of the property consultant, he successfully passed the talent introduction policy review with a fake labor contract and bought a house.

According to the local talent introduction policy "Non-Zhengzhou Household Registration Talents Purchase Policy", non-Zhengzhou Household Registration Talents who work in Zhengzhou and have full-time bachelor degree or above and associate senior title (senior technician) or above will only review their academic qualifications, professional titles, certificates from the Ministry of Education, Human Resources and Social Security, employment status of the purchaser, and no longer review the payment period of social security and individual tax certificates.

According to the sales price changes of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in 2065438+2009 and 65438+ 10 released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the newly-built commercial housing in Xi 'an increased by 23.5% year-on-year, ranking among the top 70 cities. From 2065438 to September 2008, the newly-built commercial housing in Xi 'an increased by 6.2% month-on-month, ranking first among 70 cities. Zhang Dawei said that from the perspective of cities with rising house prices in recent two years, most of them have introduced talent policies, and the rising house prices in Xi 'an are closely related to the relaxed talent introduction policy.

Zhang Dawei believes that the talent policy has lowered the threshold of purchase restriction in disguise, pushed talents to the real estate market with tight supply and demand structure, and raised expectations. In the past two years, housing prices in many cities across the country have rebounded, especially in some second-tier cities. One of the main reasons is that the new talent policy has relaxed the purchase restriction policy in disguise.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of a residential research institute, analyzed the client of Sino-Singapore Jingwei, saying that the starting point and feedback of talent policy are very good, which has reduced the cost of talent introduction in many cities and optimized the talent structure. Although the original intention of the policy is not to relax regulation, the effect is not much different from relaxation. Some provincial capital cities have very strict housing purchase policies, and buyers may take advantage of the policy, which will lead to rising housing prices.

According to Xie Yifeng's observation, judging from the recent recovery of cities, there are basically the characteristics of issuing talent introduction policies to increase the permanent population, registered population and managed population. Cities with good population conditions are expected to take the lead in restoring the real estate market.

Should the talent policy be linked to the property market purchase restriction?

Although the talent introduction policy is suspected of relaxing the purchase restriction in disguised form, Xie Yifeng said that on the one hand, talent introduction and household registration reform can promote urban development and urbanization, and also slow down the cooling speed of the market during the downturn of the property market and avoid the ups and downs of the property market.

On the other hand, after the introduction of talents, it is also necessary to solve the reasonable housing needs of new citizens, and blind across-the-board measures will also discount the talent policy. Therefore, local governments need to balance the relationship between talent introduction, household registration reform and stabilizing the real estate market.

Zhang Dawei said that the talent policy should not be linked to the property market restriction, and talents can be directly subsidized by purchasing vouchers and providing apartments for talents, instead of attracting talents like attracting property buyers. Yan Yuejin said that the key is to further subdivide the talent purchase policy. For example, after a talent buys a house, the house is not allowed to be transferred at will, and social security is paid for 6 months after settlement, so as to enhance the authenticity of the house purchase. Xie Yifeng said that when population or talents flow into the region, land supply should be increased, and the supply of affordable housing, property housing, public rental housing and affordable housing should be increased to ensure market stability.

Recently, the government has repeatedly stated its position on real estate regulation and control, and repeatedly mentioned that housing is not speculative, because of the city's policy, "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices, and stabilizing expectations." Yan Yuejin analyzed that the "three stable" policy indicates that the follow-up regulation will continue. Although there is the possibility of policy relaxation at present, there will still be supervision when it comes to the financial system and trading order. ?

(Original question: "The talent settlement policy disrupts the property market, and the purchase restriction gap will open? 》)