Hog prices are likely to rise again in 2023.

Short-term rebound in pork consumption after the return to normalcy of the production and living order and the holiday effect drive. After the Spring Festival, social catering, group consumption gradually increased, "May Day" holiday is coming to boost demand for stocking up, pork consumption is better than the same period last year, driven by hog prices showed signs of rebound. However, the post-holiday pork consumption demand is generally in the off-season, while the weight of the pen is still at a high level, so the rebound in pig prices is small.

Pork prices have been weakly falling and fell more than the price of hogs, on the one hand, because the overall consumption is still in the off-season, and on the other hand, the market sentiment on the structure of the hog inventory, the pace of slaughtering and the price of hogs in the short term has a greater impact. National hog prices will continue to rebound moderately in the second quarter, and gradually improve in the second half of the year, pig prices will show a narrow range oscillation characteristics. The majority of farm households to go with the trend of slaughter, do not a large number of replacement sows, especially do not blindly in the price rebound pen and the second fattening.

Pig price forecast

Hog production capacity, at the end of March, the country's breeding sows stocked 43.05 million head, up 2.9% year-on-year, down 0.9% from the previous year, equivalent to 41 million head of 105% of the normal retention, in the capacity to regulate the green and reasonable area of the upper line. From the number of newborn piglets, the number of newborn piglets nationwide has increased year-on-year from October last year to March this year, signaling that the number of hogs slaughtered in the next six months will maintain stable growth. From the medium and large pigs, the stock of medium and large pigs in the nation's large-scale hog farms at the end of March has increased for 2 consecutive months on a year-on-year basis and on a year-on-year basis.

If we don't take into account the situation of pressured fattening and secondary fattening, hog farming is expected to return to the profit range in June. The current hog farming industry-wide losses, is expected to 2023 farming costs will fall, hog farming benefits will rise back to normal levels.