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The charging pile is moving towards the "tuyere".
On April 9th, Cai Ronghua, deputy director of the Industrial Development Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, released a set of data at the press conference held by the the State Council Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism: it is estimated that this year, the investment will be 654.38 billion yuan, about 200,000 new public charging piles, 400,000 private piles and 48,000 new public charging stations will be built.
In the past decade, about 450,000 public charging piles have been built in China.
At this speed, the construction of charging piles has entered a period of rapid policy advancement.
The spread of the epidemic caused the global economy to press the pause button. In China's auto industry, factory shutdown, layoffs and salary cuts, and supply chain rupture have become lingering shadows under the epidemic. However, due to the emergence of "new infrastructure", the subdivision of new energy vehicle charging infrastructure has shown development vitality.
After being officially included in the "new infrastructure", the good news of the charging pile industry continues. Under the instigation of policies, all kinds of capital have been injected. In March, when the epidemic was shrouded, the charging pile industry intensively harvested three financings, including "outsider" Contemporary Ampu Technology Co., Ltd. and Ant Financial.
The charging and replacing industry has been troubled in the previous growth process, and high investment, high return period and low utilization rate have all become the constraints of profitability. According to the growth cycle of an industry, Yiou Automobile believes that the charging pile industry can be divided into four stages: the attempt in the embryonic stage, the blind rush in the initial formation stage, the high-quality growth in the development stage and the steady progress in the mature stage.
With the confirmation of the status of "new infrastructure", China's charging infrastructure industry has achieved a high-quality development stage, but there is still a certain distance from maturity.
0 1? The first stage that failed to meet expectations
Back in 2006, BYD built the first charging station for new energy vehicles in China at its Shenzhen headquarters, which opened the historical curtain of charging pile industry in China.
Then in 2008, during the Beijing Olympic Games, the first centralized charging station in China was built, which can meet the charging demand of power batteries for 50 pure electric buses. In 2009, the first batch of electric vehicle charging piles put into operation in China Southern Power Grid was built in Shenzhen, with a construction scale of 2 charging stations and 134 charging piles.
At that time, due to the optimistic expectation of the development of new energy automobile industry, State Grid dreamed of unifying the field of charging facilities, just like PetroChina and Sinopec at gas stations.
Subsequently, the State Grid raised the construction plan of charging and replacing power stations three times.
In 20 10, the State Grid proposed in the 12th Five-Year Smart Grid Plan that 904 charging and replacing power stations and 233,000 charging piles will be built during the 12th Five-Year Plan, with a total investment of 2 17 1 100 million yuan.
20 1 1 September, Liu Zhenya, then general manager of State Grid Corporation, expanded the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" target to 2,900 charging and replacing power stations and 540,000 charging piles at the 201/smart grid international forum. Then, in June of 20 13, according to the State Grid, during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the State Grid Corporation increased the price again, and planned to build 3,700 electric vehicle charging and replacing power stations and 340,000 charging piles.
Charging pile/? 123rf
The ideal is full, but the reality is "skinny".
According to the social responsibility report of State Grid Corporation of China (20 13), by the end of 20 13, State Grid Corporation of China had built 400 charging and replacing power stations for electric vehicles with charging piles 19000. The original planned investment has increased year by year. Judging from the number of construction, the construction of charging and replacing power stations slowed down in 20 12, and only 47 were built in 20 13.
The flag erected by China Southern Power Grid has also experienced the fate of falling. Previously, China Southern Power Grid and Shenzhen Municipal Government reached an agreement to build 89 charging stations and 29,500 charging piles in Shenzhen by 20 12, with an estimated total investment of over 654,380+0 billion yuan. However, according to the social responsibility report of China Southern Power Grid Corporation (20 12), by the end of 20 12, China Southern Power Grid had only built 8 charging and replacing power stations 18 and 3,229 charging piles.
When it comes to the slowdown in the construction of charging and replacing power stations, it is still difficult to bypass the hurdle of "profit". Insiders of the State Grid once said that more than 400 charging and replacing power stations that had been built at that time had almost no profitable projects and were in a state of loss across the board. China Southern Power Grid Branch also said that its seven charging stations in Shenzhen lose130,000 yuan every year.
The early charging piles were "carefully explored" in this way. On the one hand, the "fruit" of huge losses is not sweet; On the other hand, the huge gap of charging piles is still a restrictive factor for the development of new energy vehicles.
02? Running blindfolded for six years
After 20 14, the charging pile market officially opened.
In 20 14, the state grid announced the full opening of the distributed power grid-connected project and the market of electric vehicle exchange facilities. This means that the charging pile market is no longer only controlled by state-owned enterprises, and private capital also has the opportunity to share a piece of it. In the same year, special calls and star charging, ranking first and second in the field of public charging piles, were established one after another.
Another key factor in the explosion of the charging pile industry is that the new energy vehicle market has entered a stage of rapid growth.
In 20 14, Tesla entered the China market, which broke the "stereotype" of China consumers on new energy vehicles. After being "educated" by Tesla, China's new energy automobile market has become one of the important battlefields for major automobile manufacturers, and a large number of new energy automobile products have sprung up.
In 20 14, China produced 83,900 new energy vehicles and sold 74,000 vehicles, which was more than four times higher than the production and sales data of 654.38+0.75 million vehicles and 654.38+0.76 million vehicles in 20 13.
20 15, 10 The General Office of the State Council issued "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure", and it is planned to basically build a scale to meet the charging demand of more than 5 million electric vehicles by 2020.
The double overweight of market and policy has turned the charging pile market into a red sea. For a time, state-owned capital and private enterprises flocked to set off a charging pile construction frenzy. The ferocity of the frenzy is reflected in the number of charging piles.
Watchmaker/? Yiou Automobile Analyst? Ding Weiyi
By the end of 20 15, there were only 57,000 public charging facilities in China. By the end of 20 19, the number had reached12 1 9,000, an increase of 21times. With the rapid construction of charging piles, the ratio of vehicles to piles in China has been continuously optimized, from 7.8: 1 in 20 15 to 3.4: 1 at the end of 20 19.
But behind the beautiful figures, it is supported by barbaric growth.
A few years ago, the track of charging pile industry was once crowded, but the problems that collided with it were everywhere: high input cost, low utilization rate, poor user experience and weak concept of * * *, which led to the whole industry falling into a difficult profit dilemma.
Even the special calls from the head enterprises in the charging pile industry failed to escape the losses. TELD accumulated a loss of 600 million yuan in the first four years of its establishment, and did not make a profit until 2065438+April 2009. Yu Dexiang, chairman of TEL, was blunt when interviewed by the media: "TEL has lost 800 million in recent years, and others can't lose 500 million."
Due to the heavy investment assets and long payback period of the charging pile industry, after more than ten years of development, the charging pile market has formed a highly concentrated pattern-the top three industries, such as special calls, star charging and State Grid, account for more than 70% of the market.
Watchmaker/? Yiou Automobile Analyst? Ding Weiyi
So although it is easy to get into the business, there are not many players who stick to the track. Zhao Jian, general manager of TELD brand, revealed in the previous interview that there were about 300 charging pile enterprises in China in 20 17. But by 20 19, 50% of enterprises closed down or withdrew from the industry, and 30% of enterprises struggled on the benchmark of breakeven.
With the end of the "blindfolded rush" era, persistent charging infrastructure enterprises are looking for a healthy growth path.
03? Towards maturity
In March 2020, charging piles were officially included in seven new infrastructure projects in China.
In the view of Yiou Automobile, the establishment of "new infrastructure" status is an important symbol of the development stage of charging infrastructure industry from blindfold to high quality.
Big hands and new players are the most direct manifestations of the charging pile market entering the third stage.
At the beginning of March, TELD, the largest charging pile operator in China, completed a total capital increase of 654.38+35 billion yuan, and newly introduced Dinghui Investment and National Adjustment Fund. Among them, CDH Investment is a well-known institution that manages assets 1000 billion, while state-owned assets are the largest private equity investment fund in China, with a national team background and assets under management of 350 billion.
On March 6, the third day after the central government set the tone for the new infrastructure, Contemporary Anpu Technology Co., Ltd., which focuses on power batteries, and Fujian Baicheng New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. set up a joint venture company, Shanghai Bubu New Energy, which focuses on charging piles for new energy vehicles.
On March 27th, Ant Financial also invested in Simple Charge, a charging pile operating company, becoming its second largest shareholder, accounting for 33% of the shares.
In addition, it is foreseeable that local governments will also have policy preferences for charging infrastructure. At the end of March, Shanghai began to provide installation subsidies for charging piles. Not long ago, Beijing, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Shandong and other places have also introduced charging pile support policies.
Driven by capital and policies, the charging pile market itself will also be shuffled.
Novelty in the new infrastructure is the key to distinguish charging piles from ordinary infrastructure. Tian Bo, CEO of Yunkuai Charging, once said to Yiou Automobile: "The new infrastructure is different from the traditional infrastructure, paying more attention to the construction of charging facilities operating platform and accelerating the integration of pile networking and vehicle networking."
The future charging pile industry is inseparable from the collaboration of new technologies and new fields such as big data and 5G. These tasks cannot be completed by toll operators alone. Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why Ant Financial and Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd., which have never set foot in the charging pile market before, will enter the market one after another.
Among them, toll operators can obtain data through charging and open up the data link of travel and life services. The original single charging business has more value-added services, and the future profit model will be more explored.
Electric car charging/? Pexels
However, the establishment of the status of "new infrastructure" does not mean that the future development of charging piles will be smooth sailing. The Guide for the Development of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure (20 15-2020) issued during the 13th Five-Year Plan period shows that by the end of 2020, China will achieve the goal of 1: 1. By February 2020, this figure reached 3.2: 1. To make matters worse, the COVID-19 epidemic is still slowing down the development of this industry. Therefore, it may not be easy to achieve such a goal in 2020.
Although the current industry development is still far from the target level of the 20 15 plan, Yiou Automobile is still full of confidence in the development of the charging infrastructure industry in the next five years. In recent years, global automobile enterprises have started to turn to electrification, mass production of power battery technologies such as CTP, more and more efficient charging stations have been built, the cost of new energy vehicles has gradually decreased, and V2G technology is getting closer and closer to mass production ... The vitality of the charging infrastructure industry will also be continuously improved.
At the 5th China committee of 100 Forum on Electric Vehicles held in June 5438+ 10 this year, Gao predicted that before 2025, the technologies related to lithium-ion batteries and fuel cells will be fully mature and the turning point of electrification will come. At the same time, the inflection point of new energy power generation price will also come.
Yiou Automobile predicts that around 2025, as the competitiveness of new energy vehicles gradually surpasses that of fuel vehicles, the development period of the charging infrastructure market will also come to an end and formally move towards a mature stage.
Therefore, based on the good development prospects of new energy vehicles, charging piles, as its supporting supplementary energy facilities, will also grow, whether actively or passively.
After the acceleration button is pressed for new infrastructure, the rapid layout of charging piles has become a key factor to promote the development of new energy vehicles, but it is not the only reason to restrict consumers' purchase.
(Recently, Yiou Automobile is promoting the Research Report on the Development Expectation of Charging Infrastructure in China from 2020 to 2025. Welcome to discuss. )
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.