On this issue, the reporter of Shandong Animal Husbandry, a rural mass newspaper, interviewed a number of experts engaged in pig research and the heads of large pig farms in Shandong Province.
Recently, the price of pigs has started to drop.
From March 2007 to the beginning of April 2008, the price of live pigs in China rose from 14 yuan to 18 yuan, and a few of them even surpassed 20 yuan. The high price lasted for a long time, which is rare in history.
From the end of April, the price of pigs began to show signs of decline, and the decline accelerated in May, especially for local breeds. For example, the price of local live pigs in Liaocheng, Heze and Linyi dropped to about 14 yuan per kilogram. In other words, the price of a kilogram of pigs has dropped by at least 3.56 yuan, that is, from 17 yuan to 14 yuan in early April. On May 6th, the latest news that the reporter learned said that the price of piglets in Liaocheng area has also dropped to about 18 yuan per kilogram.
Regarding this phenomenon, Qu, secretary-general of the Pig Production and Marketing Branch of Shandong Animal Husbandry Association, said that this should be a temporary small fluctuation and will not seriously affect the high trend of pig prices.
Qu said that with the recent price drop, many pig farms, especially small pig farms, are extremely sensitive. Every day, she receives phone calls from the heads of several pig farms, asking her about the price trend and whether to expand the market. She analyzed that the main reasons for this small fluctuation in the pig market are pig disease and panic imitation of pig farmers. More pig diseases have caused many small and medium-sized pig farms to increase the amount of centralized slaughter and surprise sales. The sudden selling of large pig farms has caused panic and imitation in pig farms, especially small pig farms and free-range households. The practice of "selling down but not selling up" has caused another wave of small peaks, and the price is relatively low.
The reporter learned through investigation that the enthusiasm of small and medium-sized slaughtering enterprises for acquisition is not high at present. Recently, the highest temperature in our province has reached 30 degrees Celsius, the temperature has risen, pork consumption has decreased, and slaughter enterprises are also preparing to reduce acquisitions; In addition, middlemen such as pig dealers are also interested in buying at low prices. Some feed dealers reported that the impact of pig epidemics in some areas of our province continued, and all the big pigs died. Pig dealers generally reduce the purchase price of pigs, and farmers are very helpless about their price reduction behavior.
In this regard, Qu suggested that farmers: Don't panic, and treat the price rise and fall rationally.
The price of pigs will remain high this year.
"The recent price drop is only a temporary phenomenon. According to analysis, it will rise again from June to August this year, and the price of pork will remain high this year. " Hao Youbiao, chairman and general manager of Heze Hongxing Pig Breeding Company, said that the high prices of feed, medicine and labor determined that pork prices could not fall back in a short time.
Zhao Yingchuan, general manager of Liaocheng Hengshun Improved Livestock and Poultry Co., Ltd. also believes that although the number of fertile sows has increased, the pig source is still tight due to the unsatisfactory survival rate of piglets, and the pig price is likely to return to a high level after June this year.
Zhang Jiyuan, director of Weibei Farm Seed Farm, and Chang Kong, director of Yantai Fuhai Seed Farm. It is predicted that the pig price will not fluctuate greatly from now until the end of the year, and it is unlikely that the fattening pig price will fall below 14 yuan per kilogram.
When can I come down? Most people think that the price inflection point may appear at the beginning of next year, and some people think that the pig price will probably decline in April and May next year. At present, most pig farm leaders accept the reduced pig price. They think that the pig price per kilogram 14 yuan is still a high profit price that has not been seen for many years.
The insiders hold this view. Generally speaking, it is based on two aspects:
On the one hand, the high-priced operation of live pig products will break the general law of "three-year cycle" that people in the industry generally think. Judging from the last "three-year cycle", the maintenance time of pigs in the high-priced range is 22 months. This cycle has been running at a high level since April 2007, and it has been about 12 months now. Accordingly, it is predicted that the high price of live pig products will continue in10-1February. According to the law, the next decline in production efficiency and price will be after the fourth quarter of this year. If we consider the current situation of aquaculture stocks rising, it may be later. In the first quarter of 2009, it may even be postponed. However, many experts believe that in this cycle, the theory of "three-year cycle" will probably be influenced by many new factors. These new factors mainly include: the number of free-range households has been greatly reduced, and the development of large-scale aquaculture takes time; Affected by the last round of "selling pigs", especially the epidemic in 2007, the number of live pigs has decreased significantly, while the wait-and-see mentality of farms (households) has increased to avoid risks; Before the Spring Festival this year, large-scale snowfall in the south, endless diseases, the continuous rise in prices, especially feed, and the convening of the Olympic Games will all extend the high-priced operation time of pig products.
On the other hand, although the stock of sows has basically returned to the normal level, it will take time for piglets and fat pigs to be saturated. The change of pig stock situation in the market outlook is directly affected by the situation of sow replenishment in the early stage. It will take at least 12 months from the replacement of reserve sows to the first litter of fattening pigs born by sows. The lowest number of sows in the early stage appeared in May-August 2007. After a year of rapid recovery, the current supply of sows has become normal. However, due to diseases such as mold virus and cold weather in spring of 2008, the survival rate of piglets is low, so it is predicted that the saturation state of pigs will not appear until the end of 2008 or the beginning of 2009.
It is worth mentioning that the reporter gave an indisputable conclusion when interviewing experts or front-line personnel in pig farms: the price of live pigs per kilogram 18 yuan-20 yuan has reached the highest point, and there is almost no room for further increase. However, it is unrealistic to realize the balance between supply and demand of pig production in a short time.
The first task is to raise pigs well.
"Although profit is the ultimate pursuit of pig farms, as a pig farm operator, don't just pay attention to the price. Raising pigs and raising pigs, the most important thing is to raise pigs. " Hao Youbiao emphasized that in order to keep a normal mind in raising pigs, only by large-scale and modern breeding, raising health care awareness and environmental awareness, and taking the road of scientific breeding can we reduce the risk of breeding, so that enterprises can make big money when the market is good and benefit when the market is bad.
From a macro point of view, at present, as farmers, we should vigorously develop large-scale and standardized production, implement industrialized operation, save costs and increase efficiency, speed up healthy breeding, and enhance our ability to cope with market fluctuations.
From the microscopic point of view, on the basis of scientific breeding, farmers should strengthen the awareness of disease prevention and control, and achieve early prevention, early detection and early disposal of diseases. At the same time, farmers should appropriately expand the scale of breeding to avoid market risks.