Of course, if only the price of hogs to rise to not surprising, after all, hogs up and down the rotation of the situation before encountered too much. And this time is different, not only the price of pigs rose, hog futures market in the 11th when ushered in the opening of the market since the first stop. We all know that futures and spot market is different, futures often reflect the future trend of the hog market. And now the spot rebound, futures are up, does it mean that hog prices are going to bottom out?

One, why are hog prices rising?

Comprehensively, although the price of hogs experienced a "6 consecutive rise", but the overall rate of increase is very limited, the current is only from the "4 words" back to the "5 words". And behind this round of rise, there are 3 big reasons:

One is the consumption of sudden power. Before the market pork consumption is indeed general, but from the beginning of the eleventh, the price of pork in many places back down to single digits, but also really let a lot of people sigh "pork is really cheap". To the author's hometown in Hebei region, for example, good quality pork is less than 10 yuan a catty. And with the eleventh, the weather in the north turned cooler, bacon, sausage and other demand rose, coupled with cheap meat prices, processing fees are also in the 3 yuan / kg or so, so many people began to queue up to buy meat to make bacon and sausage, less than a dozen pounds, the family's population of more than one to buy is thirty or forty pounds. Therefore, this wave of consumption does play a certain role in boosting the market, after all, think about the beginning of the year when a catty of pork to 30 or 40 yuan, and now less than 10 yuan, it is really a world of difference. So many people took the opportunity to buy more and stock up.

The second is the storage of the market boost. From October 10, the second round of the central storage situation, 30,000 tons of pork all transactions, the transaction price of 9.9 ~ 10 yuan / catty, the equivalent price of woolen pig in 7.3-7.5 yuan / catty or so. This price is not a small impact on the market, and it is under this influence, the market sentiment is greatly invigorated, directly guiding the futures price broke through the high point, ushered in the first time since the listing of the stop. On the other hand, but also because this round of pig prices fell too fierce, in the 4 yuan area friction time is too long, so the market on the storage of great hope.

Third, by the 3 waves of cold air to attack, the country wide successive cooling, rainy weather, so that the pace of pig slaughter slowed down, then superimposed on the consumption of the sudden power, pig prices began to raise.

Two, pig prices are bottoming out?

"Periods of" both rose, which means that hog prices to bottom out rebound?

First of all, the first question: Is the price of pigs in the end? According to a previous CCTV report, the number of breeding sows increased from 19.13 million at the end of September 2019 to 45.64 million at the end of June this year, an increase of 2.3 times. This is one of the main reasons why the current price of pigs keeps falling, namely, there are too many pigs. And as hog prices fall, most farmers are losing money one after another, and in the second quarter, except for Makin, the rest of the listed hog enterprises are losing money substantially. And as pig prices continue to dip to 4 words, has been significantly lower than the cost line, which means that the entire pig industry has entered the stage of total loss, and this also means that the price of pigs has basically entered the bottom.

Then look at the second question: whether to bottom out? From the current capacity situation, hog production capacity is still at a high level, coupled with this year's imported pork and other frozen stocks are high, so even if the consumer market began to power, in front of the huge supply is still a drop in the bucket. So although the current hog prices, but more by the stage of good and storage role of the superposition, does not mean that ushered in a real bottoming out rebound, and not only that, the hog market subsequent to face the "2 hijacking".

Three, the hog market "2 hijacking"

1, the peak of the slaughter is still behind.

According to the data, the breeding sows inventory began to fall from July for the first time, but before July is still inertial growth. Therefore, according to the breeding sows affect the subsequent 10 months after the market point of view, the first half of next year or will usher in the peak of the number of hogs out of the pen, then perhaps drive the price of hogs bottomed out again.

2, many times bottoming out shock.

From the point of view of the factors that triggered this round of the pig cycle, in addition to swine fever, superimposed on the epidemic, weather and current energy constraints and other factors, which means that the current round of the pig cycle will be more complex, only one or two shocks may not be able to make the market really warm up, and therefore the follow-up may face 2 to 3, or even more bottoming out shocks.

Conclusion

This year's fall harvest met with rain, making growers stressed. While hog prices continue to fall, feed prices are frequently rising, farmers are also under pressure. The current hog cycle is far from over, so subsequent farmers should adjust their mindset, reasonably adjust the pace of slaughter, and take advantage of every small market under the general trend of the market, so as to smooth out the cycle.