1, this year's wheat production is low, although the rain in the first half of the year is still normal, but according to the farmers in the northern region, this year's wheat production is generally not as good as in previous years, which makes the wheat supply decrease.
2. Farmers are reluctant to sell. In previous years, farmers basically sold the wheat after harvesting it. However, this year, due to the COVID-19 epidemic in the first half of the year, the price of flour rose, and some farmers adopted the strategy of stationing grain, which reduced the flow of wheat in the market and increased the price.
3. The rising price of corn drives the price of wheat. After the rising price of corn, the cost of feed enterprises increases. In order to control the cost, some feed enterprises turn to wheat instead.
4. The follow-up price is full of confidence. At present, the international epidemic situation is still very serious. The countries that stopped exporting wheat have not moved for the time being, indicating that the follow-up wheat price may rise further. Now, not only farmers are reluctant to sell, but traders with wheat in their hands are not eager to sell.
How much can wheat rise in the future? Some experts believe that there are three bad news in the follow-up. The first is that the current demand for flour is in the off-season. Coupled with the high price of wheat and limited market demand, the support for the rise of wheat prices is limited.
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Second, Shandong will increase its wheat supply. Recently, some media reported that the National Grain Trading Center will put 12 tons of wheat into the market this month, and Shandong will put 300,000 tons.
The third is that the recent purchase of wheat in Xuchang, Zhumadian, Xincai and other places in Henan Province has also stopped. These are all because the current wheat price is on the high side and the state has taken measures to regulate it. It is expected that the wheat price will stop rising with the implementation of the policy.
On the whole, the author predicts that it is unlikely that the price of wheat will continue to rise sharply in the future, but the specific increase still depends on how much the highest price of corn can reach, the strength of subsequent wheat market purchase and the demand for wheat at the feed end.