Is Xiamen's business saturated? Nowadays, many people say that Xiamen's business is too saturated, mainly based on how many times the per capita business area is the national average, much higher than other developed cities ... These data are important criteria for judging whether the business is saturated, but not all. Judging whether Xiamen's business is saturated mainly depends on the following points. One is the commercial stock, the other is the per capita commercial area, and the third is the current situation of existing commercial operations.
1, commercial stocks on the island
Since 1997, with the acceleration of urbanization, the commercial area of the island has been expanding, and the current commercial volume has been several times that of 10 years ago. According to the statistics of professional organizations, the volume of several large shopping centers operating on the island, such as SM Plaza, World Trade Center, Farming Commercial Plaza, Minghui Causeway Bay and Ruijing Commercial Plaza, has reached nearly 6.5438+0.0000 square meters. Coupled with other commercial formats such as department stores, supermarkets, restaurants, leisure and entertainment, it is conservatively estimated that the commercial volume operated on the island has exceeded 2.5 million square meters. If we add large commercial outlets under development, such as China Plaza and Robinson Plaza, the total commercial volume in Xiamen Island should be between 3 million and 3.5 million square meters.
2. The per capita commercial area of the island.
At present, the resident population of the island is about 6.5438+0.80 million, and the commercial volume of the island is at least 3 million square meters, which means that the per capita commercial area of the island has reached 654.38+0.67 square meters. In contrast, the per capita commercial area in China is currently 0.33 square meters, and the per capita commercial area on the island is about five times that of the whole country. Looking at the per capita commercial area of several developed cities in China, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen are 1.35, 1.52 and 1.02, respectively, and the per capita commercial area on the island has surpassed these big cities. Judging from the per capita commercial area of developed countries, Xiamen Island has far exceeded the internationally recognized standard of 1. Judging from these comparisons, the commerce in Xiamen Island is saturated.
3. Current situation of commercial operation
With the wave of globalization sweeping, foreign retail enterprises have entered Xiamen, triggering a new round of competition. Now, Wal-Mart, Carrefour, Metro, Lianhua Supermarket, Gome and other domestic and foreign retail giants can be seen everywhere on the island. The entry of retail giants has brought fierce competition. On the land of 130 square kilometers, there are more than a dozen hypermarkets, more than a dozen retail department stores and a large number of professional stores. Fierce competition is manifested in frequent changes of merchants and constant changes of business models, such as the closure of Kun Can 3C, Yongle's acquisition of local home appliance giant Siwen, repeated changes of owners of commercial buildings in the Mainland, the renovation and reopening of Hualian Department Store and Zhongshan Lake Duty-free Shopping Mall, etc., which is manifested in the increase of commercial real estate development and the increase of vacant area. For example, Farming Commercial Plaza and Minghui Plaza, which were newly opened last year, are mostly not full, and the commercial vacancy rate is high, which leads to current operational difficulties.
Judging whether the commerce in Xiamen Island is saturated by the above indicators, it is considered that the commerce in Xiamen Island is too saturated, which is one-sided. To judge whether a business is saturated or not, it is necessary to comprehensively consider factors such as urbanization evolution, business distribution, business format characteristics and business radiation. Therefore, it is impossible to determine unilaterally whether the commerce in Xiamen Island is saturated, but it can only be summarized in one sentence: "The distribution of commerce is unbalanced, the layout is not reasonable, some businesses are too saturated, the retail format is relatively single, and there is still room for the whole."
The so-called "unbalanced distribution and unreasonable layout" mainly shows that the current commercial outlets are concentrated in the old city, Zhongshan Road and the railway station-Fushan area, and the competition is fierce, while the newly developed urban areas, especially the new areas (such as Qianpudong and Jinshang Road), develop slowly, where there are a large number of consumers, but there is a lack of shopping places.
The so-called "local over-saturation" is mainly manifested in the excessive concentration of commerce in several traditional business districts, the excessive stock of commercial real estate and fierce commercial competition. For example, it is conservatively estimated that the commercial area of Zhongshan Road Business Circle exceeds 1 10,000 square meters, and there are 5 large retail department stores, 2 hypermarkets and various specialty stores within 1 km. Coupled with several large commercial outlets under construction, the competition is becoming increasingly fierce.
The so-called "single retail format" is mainly manifested in the low grade of goods in the market and the lack of high-end brand retail business. At present, in Xiamen, the product grades of various retailers overlap, so the competition of low-end businesses is fierce, and high-end businesses are still in the market gap. Local residents choose to go to Hong Kong to buy high-end brands.
The so-called "there is still room on the whole" shows that the commerce in the eastern Qianpu area and the Wuyuanwan area of Jinshang Road is still blank. This is the focus of urban development in recent years. The prospect is very good, and a lot of businesses are needed, but there is a lack of shopping places at present, so the retail business market is large.
Whether the commercial capacity of Xiamen Island is saturated or not requires long-term, systematic and repeated observation, not a few indicators.