If you buy any stock in the stock market and wait for three to five days, what is the average profit probability of your investment? About 45%, which is calculated by Muyu according to the big data of the past three years. So if you play in a normal casino and guess the size, the chance of winning is about 50%. A 50% chance of winning is to lose money, because you always win a little more money when you lose than when you win. For example, 100 yuan earned 10%, that is 1 10 yuan, but 1 10 yuan fell 10%, but the amount was greater than the rising1. You must have a winning percentage of 52% to make up the gap between winning and losing.
50% of the winning percentage is gambling, not to mention 45% of stock trading. No wonder economist Wu Jinglian said that A shares are not even as good as casinos. Then someone must say, well, if I have good skills and rich knowledge, I don't gamble in stock trading.
Yes, it is possible. However, more than 70% of retail investors lose money, which proves that most people can't actually do it. It is not clear how many people in the other 30% rely on luck. This is due to the following reasons.
First, most of the information on the market has been processed by others, which is instructive. Far away, the 4,400-point Shanghai Stock Exchange in 2065,438+05 is the official media saying that the bull market has just begun. In the past September and 10 months, the so-called top ten securities firms have consistently seen more, but the market has been flooded with mercury. We can find that institutions are bullish most of the time and the market is down most of the time. It is these interest groups that need someone to trade and contribute commissions to them. We are used to calling retail investors leeks. In fact, because there are always people with ulterior motives trying to target the largest number of retail investors, we can make up countless stories.
Second, if more people use it, most technologies will no longer be effective. There are many technologies on the Internet to teach you to look at K-line patterns such as bottom deviation and top deviation, and the use of moving averages is also very popular. But the problem is that if these technologies were used by many people, they would have lost their value. Let's see which leading stocks are not top deviations this year, and which stocks that have fallen for a long time are not bottom deviations. Wooden fish have been tested with a lot of data, and the winning rate of these K-line forms is less than 52%. Then there are so-called value investment technologies such as EPS, price-to-book ratio and so on. If you really use these things, then you should be a bank stock in Man Cang. Even the basic CAPM asset pricing model has long been useless. The real main players use their unique technology and analysis methods, and then fool you into continuing to use the previous technology, so that they will always be one step ahead.
Three, the vast majority of valuable investment technologies and strategies, ordinary investors can not learn and have no conditions to use. Of course, there are also stronger investment methods, such as high-frequency risk-free arbitrage, such as industry-leading valuation analysis, and even securities companies are looking at the funds of their big customers to arrange their own proprietary trading, and they can also hedge stock index futures. Ordinary investors are mostly followers of the market, half a position behind, and the tactics used by the main players in the market are beyond our reach. This game has long been unfair. I can tell you responsibly that at least 80% of the tutorials and so-called teachers who teach you about stock trading are worthless.
The above three aspects make it difficult for most ordinary investors to get a higher chance of winning than gambling no matter what they do. In the long run, it can be said that quite a few people gamble, which is gambling, even worse than gambling. It's just that many people think that after listening to the news and telling the teacher, they will have a chance to become the king at the gambling table, but they are greeted by bloody facts. So how can investors avoid blind investment behavior that is worse than gambling? Muyu has the following suggestions.
First, we should have a clear understanding of ourselves and not do things beyond our ability. For example, you may have a full understanding of your market sensitivity through several short-term operations and find yourself always one step behind the main force. After many losses, you should consider a more rational investment method. For another example, if, after learning a lot of knowledge, you think that a stock is only worth 20 yuan, and others have risen to 40 yuan appropriately, then you should examine your ability to judge the stock price. It is normal for investors to suffer some losses and then find the key factors of their investment problems. But what I fear most is stubbornness. Lost once, and will continue to lose for several years. This is the real green onion. After losing several times, you should have a clear position for yourself. If you are not a genius, or find it too difficult to master, you should consider how to transform yourself.
Second, be a strategic investor, not a tactical player. It can be said that most market participants in the United States are strategic investors, while most of us are tactical investors. Strategic investors can look at the general trend and embrace big opportunities. Investment income is based on the continuous appreciation of assets. Tactical players expect to achieve their own gains by throwing high and sucking low and letting others take over. Therefore, strategic investors ushered in a bull market at 10. Tactical players, on the other hand, always oscillate in a limited range and repeat the game of the strong reaping the weak. Then, for most ordinary investors, we should seek an investment method of exchanging time for space. For example, investing in ETF funds with trend characteristics, instead of caring about the gains and losses for a day or two, avoids the cruelty of short-term games and has a good investment experience. Recently, investors who lost half their wealth in one day because of investing in convertible bonds abound. You can say that this is a minority, but once this investment risk appears, it is unbearable. If ordinary people appear once in their lives, it may lead to complete loss of self-confidence and family conflicts, unless they are real gamblers.
Third, learn honest investment knowledge instead of studying how to play the game. The world of games is full of monsters, and all kinds of things emerge one after another, full of intrigue. Ordinary investors who have no advantages in capital and information can never beat the main players from the game level. If you want to be a good investor, you need to learn financial statement analysis, macroeconomics, company valuation and even simple programming or spreadsheet development from the basics. With this knowledge, you will have the opportunity to form your own unique values without being disturbed by market noise. These thresholds may not be low, but there are simpler and more direct ones. Take a little time to learn the trend of the industry and know a little about the technology of watching the market. You can try to make a fixed investment. Even if you make a mistake at first, you can change time for space to correct it, so that you won't be hurt by a mistake.
Some people say that if everyone makes a fixed investment, will they not make money because more people use it? Then you can refer to Nasdaq. Most institutional investors in the United States didn't get off on the road. It is not until the fundamentals of the general trend you are chasing are inconsistent that there will be more violent turmoil. The amplitude of this fluctuation is much smaller than that of the player, and the fluctuation period will be shorter. More importantly, you need subjective judgment several orders of magnitude less than playing games.