202 1 by 2022, the trend of pig price in the whole year presents a "mirror image" phenomenon. The high range of 202 1 has become the low point in 2022, and the low point of 202 1 has already created a peak in 2022. According to the analysis of pig price data, the average price of live pigs in China is the lowest in 2022.
According to official data, in 2022, the number of pigs slaughtered reached 699.5 million, and the pork production capacity reached 554,654.38+0 million tons. At the end of the year, there were 453 million pigs and 44 million sows! In 2022, the pig slaughter, pork production capacity and the pig stock at the end of the year also reached a new high since the plague. At the end of 20 19, the number of live pigs was only 31100,000, and the slaughter scale was only 544 million. In 2020, the pork output will drop to 4 1 130 tons!
It can be seen that with the support of official measures, the domestic pig production capacity has recovered rapidly. At this stage, the production capacity of live pigs has exceeded the same period of normal years in previous years!
Of course, the rapid recovery of pig production capacity and the development of large-scale pig enterprises are obvious to all. With the support of official policies and higher-level funds, from 2065, 438+09 to 2020, the scale of new pig enterprises nationwide reached 315,000 and 52,800 respectively. Although, with the recovery of pig production capacity, the scale of new pig enterprises has increased from 2026,5438+0 to 2020. However, the main scale of existing pig breeding in China has reached nearly 360,000!
According to institutional data, in 2022, the domestic pig factory top 16, the annual slaughter scale was as high as 65438+32 million heads, accounting for nearly 19% of the market. It is understood that the annual slaughter scale of top20 domestic pig factories accounts for over 20%, reaching 2 1.465438+.
Large-scale pig-raising enterprises have expanded substantially. Among them, Mu Yuan, the first pig raising company, slaughtered as many as 6 1 20 1 000 pigs during the year, and the annual slaughter scale of Wen's was 1 790860 pigs. The annual slaughter scale of New Hope is 65,438+0,466,5438+0,390 pigs, with a market share of 8.74.
According to market feedback, in 2022, the average price of live pigs 16.07 yuan/kg reached the bottom in June 65438+ 10/.74 yuan/kg, and in March 2 1 reached the bottom, and the price of live pigs rose to 20.22 yuan/kg at the end of June. In 2022, pig breeding showed the performance of "losing half a year and earning half a year"!
In 2023 1 month, the price of live pigs went down further, and the breeding end once again entered the stage of slaughter loss. Pre-holiday institutional data show that the profit of self-breeding and self-feeding head is -242.99 yuan, and the profit of purchasing piglets before May is -498.7 yuan!
According to the institutional analysis, there are 44 million sows in China by the end of 2022, which is 107% of the normal stock, and the size of pigs is as high as 453 million. It is estimated that the slaughter scale of pig enterprises in the Group may increase by 20% in 2023, and the fluctuation range of pig prices may exceed 200% in 2023.
However, from a rational point of view, the domestic pig production capacity is in a normal stage. After the Spring Festival, the consumer market entered the off-season, and the pressure on the breeding end gradually weakened. The market is booming, and the price may be in the bottom shock stage. In the first half of 2023, farmers will face the pressure of loss. However, in the second half of 2023, with the market bullish sentiment heating up, the price pressure is getting stronger, superposition, secondary fattening and other factors, the pig price is still strong. During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, the price of pigs may reach a stage high. In particular, the domestic economic recovery, catering and tourism industries will be greatly improved this year, and pork consumption will be improved. Therefore, there is still a narrow profit trend in pig fattening throughout the year, and the market may not fall deeply. Therefore, it is very important to remind retail farmers to carefully choose the timing of slaughter and not blindly press the bar. Reducing costs and increasing efficiency is still an important part to keep the pig price developing well and orderly in the low cycle!
In 2023, 80% of pigs lost half a year and earned half a year! What do you think of this? The above is my personal opinion!