In 2114, "macro-control" was loosened, and house prices kept falling. In 2115, the rescue policy continued, and house prices stopped falling and rebounded. The property market has reached a crossroads again. The stock market is risky, and the funds will be transferred. Will the property market become the next battlefield? What is the development trend of the property market, and how can we grasp the timing of buying a house in the trend? Today, Xiaobian will come with you on August 18, the future development trend of the property market. Buying a house must be seen!

The high inventory in the property market has always been a headache for local governments. On August 31th, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other three ministries jointly issued a document to lower the threshold for provident fund loans again. The document stipulates that if you pay off the provident fund loan for the first suite and apply for the provident fund loan for the second suite again, the down payment ratio will be reduced to 21%. This policy continues last year's "9? Since the "31" New Deal, the policy theme of encouraging self-occupied and improved housing demand through "reducing costs and raising leverage" has also continued the policy choice of provident fund as the "main force" to support the property market.

The major purpose of this major adjustment of provident fund policy is to realize "destocking" in third-and fourth-tier cities by stimulating the demand for improved housing.

As the future change prospect of the property market is still unclear, many people are puzzled about whether to buy a house now or later. Let's take you to know the future trend of China property market, and see if it's the right time to buy a house now.

1. The housing price gap between cities will be greater

The government has always wanted to realize the balanced development of large, medium and small cities in the process of urbanization. However, due to the unbalanced allocation of public resources, development opportunities are more concentrated in the capital, municipalities directly under the central government, provincial capital cities and special zones, so the "Matthew effect" in urban development will become increasingly obvious.

In the past five years, China has formed six population growth centers, namely, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and their surrounding cities. The "three primary schools" are Zhengzhou, Changsha and Xiamen+Quanzhou. In terms of capital increment, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Hangzhou and Nanjing have become star cities. In these places, the housing prices will be supported by both people and money.

2. Houses in big cities are increasingly capitalized

In first-tier cities and about 11 strong second-tier cities, the property in the central area will be increasingly capitalized, and investors will be globalized and nationalized. In small and medium-sized cities, especially cities with population loss, houses will return to their original attributes such as residence, office and business. For most people in China, the most painful time of houses is over. After 1995 in most cities, their youth will no longer be squeezed by housing, which is the greatest benefit brought by the real estate bubble.

3, small huxing will be mechanized

In the central area of a big city, mechanized small huxing will rise. A small apartment of 21 square meters will evolve into a sophisticated instrument, which will create rich life scenes through folding and opening. Developers are more and more like manufacturers of passenger planes and cruise ships.

4. Reverse urbanization is hard to occur

After full urbanization, reverse urbanization will occur in many countries. That is, city people go to the countryside to buy land and build villas. In the next 11 to 21 years, it is very difficult for China to have this situation. Because China has a large population and little arable land, the land is owned by the state. In addition, the uneven distribution of public and private resources also makes people living in rural areas inconvenient and unsafe.

5. It is difficult to "decentralize" big cities

Most cities in Europe and America have a trend of decentralization. At present, all the megacities in China are under the pressure of traffic and environment, so it has become the dream of many people to have multiple centers in one city. However, China's national conditions are less arable land per capita and nationalized land. The state is delineating the boundaries of big cities to prevent unrestricted land occupation. In addition, the public resources can't be evenly distributed, so it is extremely difficult to go to the central area. On the contrary, the development of mobile internet technology is bringing about a new change in Jiaotong: if there are 1.5 million taxis and private cars in a city like Beijing, there is no need for private people to own cars. In this way, the traffic deadlock in the city is opened, and decentralization is of little significance.

6. Shops are facing revaluation

The biggest problem faced by shops is that "bag consumption" (clothing, shoes and hats, household appliances, etc.) is increasingly replaced by online shopping, and only "experiential consumption" (catering, movies, training, skating rink) is left to support the value of shops. Street shops in traditional commercial areas may be the most dangerous assets because the unit price is too high. In addition, it is a complex of suburbs and new districts of cities with population loss. It is becoming more and more difficult to "raise three generations in one shop", and the tragedy of "raising one shop in three generations" occurs at any time.

7. The prices of office buildings and houses will be upside down for a long time

In first-tier cities, there has always been a phenomenon that houses and office buildings (including business apartments) in the same location and grade are more expensive. Why? There are three reasons: first, commercial properties basically do not have a degree and cannot be registered; Second, the land use life of commercial property is short; Third, the management fee is high, and water and electricity are generally unable to pass gas.

In the network era, it is becoming fashionable to work at home, in decentralized offices and in the suburbs, but the "just-needed color" of office buildings is insufficient. A person in the office may only need 3 square meters, but the demand for residential area is the more the better. This phenomenon will continue in the future, and it is still the first choice to invest in real estate in the central area of big cities. Of course, if you want abundant cash flow, you should invest in good office buildings.

8. Property tax will be introduced, but it will have little impact on the market.

As the real estate in most cities has an inflection point, it is unlikely that the state will introduce a severe property tax in order to stabilize growth. Property tax is the tax source of local governments, and it will definitely be adapted to local conditions in the future, with different tax rates and different reduction and exemption policies. The property tax rate in first-tier cities will definitely be the highest. On the whole, property tax has little effect on housing prices.

9. The family planning policy will be gradually adjusted, but it will have little impact on the property market.

There is no suspense in fully releasing the second child, but it is only a matter of time. In the future, there may be a more relaxed population policy. Otherwise, after several decades, China will face a severe population crisis (excessive aging and insufficient labor force). This constitutes a long-term positive for the property market, but the effect may not be as great as imagined, because the cost of childbirth is getting higher and higher, and the enthusiasm of young people in childbirth is declining, which is also a worldwide trend. Sooner or later, the local government will announce that one more child will be rewarded with half a house.

11. House prices in big cities: rising, rising and rising

The urban model of China is completely different from that of the United States. We are a stacked city with high density and high population concentration. Once this trend is formed, it is difficult to change. It is impossible for you to let China people live a life of "driving for 11 minutes even if you buy a toothbrush". Therefore, in cities with increasing population, it is difficult for house prices to fall back. Coupled with the long-term high RMB money supply, house prices can only keep rising.

in dollar terms, house prices in big cities in China may fluctuate, repeatedly or even fall in the next few years. However, the general trend of housing prices in RMB is rising. In other words, there is a big factor in this: currency depreciation.

11, a large number of real estate enterprises will die out and transform

There have been countless experts saying that the China property market is undergoing a great escape, and the escape routes include: escaping from third-and fourth-tier cities, escaping from suburbs, escaping from high debts, fleeing to diversification and fleeing overseas. Now it seems that it has all come true. In the next 2111 years, this trend will continue, and a large number of small and medium-sized housing enterprises will be acquired, transformed or dead. In the end, there may be only a hundred large housing enterprises left in China, and they are diversified. A large number of people will leave this industry to find another way out.

12. The "interconnection+real estate" bubble will break

a new wave of network craze brought by the mobile Internet, which has reached its peak in China and the United States at the same time. As the US dollar interest rate hike approaches, the major adjustment of the US stock market has begun. In China, the reform of IPO registration system has been postponed inevitably because of the stock market crash, which makes the crazy PE and VC investments in the past two years face the exit dilemma. The year 2116 is likely to be a full-scale ebb of internet plus. There will be a number of "internet plus real estate" enterprises that have no profit model, and they will die of "running out of ammunition and food". However, the reshaping of real estate by the Internet will not stop.

Has the rescue policy kept the property market in the "harvest season"?

According to the data, the average transaction price of commercial housing in 31 typical cities in the second quarter of 2115 was 12,187 yuan/square meter, up by 16.2% year-on-year, and the average transaction price reached a record high.

what's the situation? Is the house price going to "come back to life" again? What about the agreed regulation?

in fact, the sales volume of commercial housing in China has bottomed out in the first half of this year. The increase in sales volume will inevitably lead to the increase in prices. Coupled with the soaring stock market in the early stage, many people took profits and moved to the property market. It seems natural for the house price to rise.

house price rises and rises

The central bank issued a report saying that the volume of commercial housing in China has stabilized and rebounded, the number of cities with rising house prices has increased, the growth rate of real estate development investment has continued to decline, and real estate loans have grown steadily and rapidly.

rising house prices can't restrain consumers' desire to buy. In the first half of the year, the sales area of commercial housing was 511 million square meters, up 3.9% year-on-year. The price increase in first-and second-tier cities is very obvious. In terms of price, the average transaction price in first-and second-tier cities reached record highs. Due to the heavy destocking task in third-tier cities, the average transaction price increased slightly from the previous month. In terms of transaction volume, the transaction volume of first-tier cities in the second quarter increased the most year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, reaching a record high.

First-tier cities are the "leaders" of housing price increase in the second quarter of this year. On the one hand, the continuous narrowing of the destocking cycle has released the destocking pressure in the real estate market, and housing enterprises have taken the initiative to raise prices. For some luxury products, better turnover will also prompt them to raise prices. On the other hand, with the continuous change of market expectations, the first-line real estate market is still generally optimistic, which will also bring about an increase in the price of the real estate market.

in the recent stage, the stock market seems to have planted land for the property market. Experts say that "the property market is the harvester of the stock market". For investors who have made huge profits in the stock market, the soaring market also means increased risks. In addition, China people have a long-standing cognitive tradition of real estate, so it is an inevitable choice to properly cash out profitable funds for high-quality real estate investment. Stimulated by various favorable policies, it is expected that the market turnover will still be considerable in the second half of the year.

what do you think of the future property market?

(The above answer was issued on September-August, 2115, and the current relevant house purchase policy should be based on the actual situation)

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