I think there are several main logics to promote the sharp rise in the price of live pigs:
1, the peak of infection in some areas has passed, and pork market consumption is picking up.
2. After the pig price falls below the cost line, the willingness of the breeding end to sell at a high price increases.
3. After the pig farms of the Group successively completed the annual slaughter task, they successively reduced their prices.
4. The amount of fertilizer in the market has decreased, the amount of live pigs slaughtered has decreased again, and the supply of pork has decreased.
Next, pork consumption will also usher in good consumption on New Year's Day and Spring Festival, and with the decline in the amount of pigs slaughtered at the breeding end, the price of pigs is expected to continue to rise.
However, considering that the terminal consumption is difficult to return to the normal level because of the epidemic, the increase in pig prices is limited, and it may even be lowered after the increase, but the strong trend of narrow fluctuations will not change.
The price of pigs with serious overcapacity has obviously rebounded. When will the prices of sheep, chicken and eggs, which have fallen sharply, rebound?
I. Sheep price
At present, the price of sheep in China is generally unsatisfactory. Pingdingshan, Henan, goat fattening sheep 19 yuan 5 kg.
Shandong Shouguang, Ram 17.5 yuan per catty.
Duhan string from Jiaozhou, Qingdao, Shandong, male and female 17 yuan 8 1 kg.
Shandong Yantai Laizhou eliminated ewes, 14.5 yuan Jin.
Fattening sheep in Gulang county, Gansu province 16.6 yuan/kg.
Gross weight of ewe in Longxi County, Gansu Province 17.5 yuan/kg.
Heilongjiang Anda eliminated sheep 12 yuan a catty.
It is not difficult to find that the price of sheep everywhere is still low. At present, it is the peak of mutton consumption, and the price of sheep should rise. Why does the price of sheep fall instead of rising?
1, the price of mutton is too high, which inhibits the consumption of mutton.
2. The sharp drop of pork price before seized the mutton consumption market.
3. The stock of sheep is still high, and the production capacity of sheep exceeds the demand.
4. Affected by the epidemic, the terminal catering consumption is sluggish, and mutton itself is mainly catering consumption, which is greatly affected.
When will the price of sheep rise? At present, it is generally believed that sheep prices will pick up in May and June next year. This forecast mainly starts from two points. The first point is that in May and June next year, we can basically get out of the shadow of the epidemic, increase residents' income, improve their lives and restore food and beverage consumption. Although it is not the peak season for mutton demand, the demand for mutton is guaranteed.
Secondly, in May and June next year, the productivity of sheep in China will drop significantly, and the impact of eliminating ewes in the second half of this year will be reflected one after another.
Therefore, farmers should be prepared to lose money in raising sheep in the next six months.
Second, the price of chicken.
Recently, the prices of national chickens, pheasants and white feather broilers have been falling continuously. The price of fast-growing chickens has dropped to about 5.2 yuan/kg, slow-growing chickens to about 7.3 yuan/kg, hemp chickens to about 4 yuan/kg, white-feather broilers to about 3 yuan/kg, and the broiler market has collapsed across the board.
Leading to the collapse of the broiler market across the board, mainly in the following aspects:
1, the breeding market is ideal in the second half of the year, and the domestic broiler breeding volume is increasing.
2. Chicken consumption demand suddenly collapsed. Due to the epidemic, the restaurant stopped eating in a large area and no take-away staff took orders.
3. The social circulation is reduced, and the operating rate of slaughter enterprises is reduced.
After the price of pork fell, it seized a part of the chicken consumption market.
When will the price of chicken rebound? According to reports, at the end of June, the number of breeders in the whole industry was 1 1.695 million sets, which was -4.2% from the previous month, and the number of breeders on behalf of parents was 36.37 million sets, which was-1.0% from the previous month. Domestic breeding chicken production capacity is still at a historically high level.
If the consumption demand of broilers cannot pick up in June 5438+ 10, the broiler market will still operate at a low level in June 5438+ 10.
It is reported that with the decline of broiler market, the price of white feather chicken seedlings has dropped to 0.65 yuan/feather. Although the price of white feather chicken seedlings has fallen to the lowest point in the year, the transaction is still not smooth. In order to reduce the loss, various poultry enterprises have adopted the method of pumping live beads, which will affect the slaughter of white feather broilers in the next month and a half. In addition, the breeding of white feather chickens will enter a state of loss, and the number of broilers will theoretically begin to decline. It is expected that the earliest broiler market will improve.
Of course, some people think that in the first half of June, 5438+ 10 will enter the consumption peak of New Year's Day and Spring Festival, which is expected to drive the volume of chicken products, thus driving the price of chicken to rebound.
Third, the price of eggs.
Compared with the first two months of the fourth quarter, the price of eggs in 65438+February was obviously weak. At present, the price of eggs has dropped to 4-4.5 yuan/kg, which has been adjusted by shocks, especially in recent days 10.
The price of eggs in Hebei, Shanxi and Yunnan even reached the level of 3 yuan.
The decline in egg prices is mainly due to the huge impact on egg consumption.
Due to the gradual liberalization of epidemic control in various parts of the country, the number of infected people in various places has soared, and catering in many places has basically stagnated. Processing enterprises such as food factories have also stopped production near the end of the year, and residents have reduced their going out, which has significantly reduced the demand for terminal eggs and accumulated eggs into inventories at all levels.
According to institutional statistics, as of February 26th, 65438, the average inventory in production links was 1.60 days, the average inventory in circulation links was 2.3 1 day, the cumulative average inventory was 3.9 1 day, the local inventory pressure reached 5-6 days, and the delivery pressure gradually increased.
Affected by the extremely rapid drop in egg prices, the profits of laying hens have been significantly reduced. For example, in low-priced areas such as Liaoning, Sichuan and Hebei, the price of eggs has fallen below the cost line and started to enter a state of loss.
When will the price of eggs rise? Although in the short term, with the increase of rehabilitation personnel, the consumption of eggs in the market is expected to recover. After New Year's Day, the production of food enterprises will resume in an orderly manner. After entering the twelfth lunar month, supermarkets will stock up and residents need to stock up at home. Under the influence of the active trading atmosphere in the terminal, the price of eggs is expected to rise, but the inventory pressure is high and the recovery rate is limited.
Recently, the price of eggs is low, and farmers are more motivated to eliminate old chickens, which will help to quickly tighten the production capacity of laying hens and will also promote the rebound of short-term egg prices.