Since the beginning of this year, the impact of the international financial crisis on the real economy has further expanded, and the employment situation in the country and our city is grim. However, under the effect of a series of stimulus measures issued by the state and our city, the demand for employment has risen steadily since April, and the employment situation in the whole year has shown a trend of first restraining and then rising. 20 10 under the condition that the international economic environment has improved and the existing domestic policy orientation remains basically unchanged, it is expected that the economy of China and our city will maintain a steady growth trend, which is conducive to maintaining the stability of the employment situation in our city. However, considering that the labor demand situation is still not optimistic, the ability of the tertiary industry to absorb employment is limited, and the number of college graduates is increasing, the employment situation in the city next year is still grim, but overall it is better than this year. I. Overall characteristics of employment situation in Beijing in 2009 (I) Summary of employment promotion policies since the current financial crisis. Last September, the impact of the international financial crisis on China's real economy began to appear. In response to the crisis, the state issued a 4 trillion economic stimulus plan in time, and the ten major industrial revitalization plans were announced one by one. At the same time, in the face of the increasingly severe employment situation, the State Council issued the Notice on Doing a Good Job in Employment under the Current Economic Situation; In view of the employment problem of college graduates, the Notice of the General Office of the State Council on Strengthening the Employment of College Graduates was issued. In the Announcement of National Policy for Promoting the Employment of College Graduates issued by the Ministry of Education, 20 new measures for promoting the employment of college graduates were announced. Under the background of rising unemployment rate and increasing employment pressure at home and abroad, our city has intensively issued "six ones", "new six articles" and "fifteen articles" to promote the employment of college graduates. Reduce the labor cost of enterprises, "reduce the burden and pressure" for enterprises, reduce the pressure of downsizing by taking vacations, shortening working hours and reducing wages, improve job subsidies and social security subsidies, and reduce the social security contribution rate of enterprises. Strengthen employment training services and improve vocational skills. Provide employment opportunities such as scientific research assistants, village officials and community posts to solve the employment of college students. Strengthen the overall planning of urban and rural areas, extend policies such as post subsidies, social security subsidies, small secured loans and vocational training subsidies to rural areas, and expand farmers' transfer of employment. (II) Analysis of the Employment Situation in 2009 Under the action of a series of employment promotion policies, with the gradual recovery of the economic situation, the employment situation in the city was generally stable. 1, the overall employment showed a steady trend of improvement. Since the beginning of this year, under the action of a series of policies and measures to maintain growth, Beijing's economy bottomed out at the beginning of this year and gradually picked up, with quarterly growth rates of 6. 1%, 9.4% and 12.8% respectively. The estimated annual growth rate is close to 10%. The slowdown of the economic situation will inevitably have a direct impact on employment. The month-on-month growth rate of employees in urban units decreased from 2% in the second quarter of 2008 to-1.5% in the first quarter of this year, with a slight rebound in the second quarter and an increase of 1.2% in the third quarter. The registered urban unemployment rate in this city has been declining since May, reaching 1.77% by the end of September, the lowest level in the same period since 2006. It is expected to be controlled within 1.82% for the whole year, which is lower than the control target of 2.5% at the beginning of the year. 2. The industrial structure and employment structure of various industries are obviously deviated. Since the reform and opening up, Beijing's industrial structure and employment structure have experienced the evolution from "two, three, one" to "three, two, one", and the tertiary industry has become an important channel to absorb surplus labor and solve employment. Since this year, the employment structure and industrial structure have continued this trend. From June to September, the added value and employment ratio of the three industries were 0.95︰25.4︰73.65 and 2.4︰22. 12︰75.48 respectively. However, from the perspective of industries, the growth of added value and employment in various industries presents different characteristics. While the added value of finance, scientific research and development, education and health, culture and other industries is increasing, the demand for employment is also increasing; Manufacturing, construction, information services, business services, real estate and other industries have achieved value-added growth without increasing employment; The added value of transportation, accommodation and catering, public management and social organizations is negative or zero, but the number of employed people keeps increasing. Further analysis of the structural deviation of various industries shows that the negative deviation of manufacturing industry, financial industry and information service industry is obvious, and the positive deviation of transportation, leasing and business service industry is obvious. Compared with the end of 2008, the deviation of information services, finance, manufacturing and other industries has dropped more obviously, reflecting that the contribution of these industries to employment in coping with the financial crisis has dropped significantly. The characteristics of the industry itself, the changes in the external environment and the degree of marketization of various industries determine different deviation directions and degrees. 3. The increase or decrease of employment in all districts and counties is unevenly distributed. In recent years, in accordance with the requirements of building four types of functional zones, the adjustment of economic structure in our city has been increasing, and the employment in various districts and counties has shown an unbalanced development trend. Measured by the urban registered unemployment rate index, from June 5438 to September this year, the registered unemployment rate in Dongcheng, Xicheng, Chaoyang, Haidian and other districts and counties with obvious characteristics of headquarters elements and high labor quality and Shunyi District with rapid economic growth and good population management was lower than that in the same period of the whole city. However, the registered unemployment rate in Fangshan, Mentougou, ecological conservation areas and other industrial transformation areas with high pressure of transferring employment is higher than the city level. Judging from the changes of registered unemployment rate in various districts and counties, the districts and counties that decreased year-on-year were Dongcheng, Xicheng, Chaoyang, Haidian, Shunyi, Fengtai, Tongzhou, Mentougou, Pinggu and Miyun, and the districts and counties that increased year-on-year were Fangshan, Huairou and Yanqing. 4. The employment of state-owned and collective economy declined, and the employment of non-public economy increased obviously. This year, the number of employees in the state-owned and collective economy in our city has declined, but the number of employees in the non-public economy has increased significantly. From June 5438 to September, the total number of employees in state-owned and collective economy in our city was 6.5438+0.84 million and 6.5438+0.47 million respectively, which were 37,000 and 2,553 less than the end of last year, and the number of employees in non-public economy was 37.65438+0.7 million, an increase of nearly 42,000 compared with the end of last year. It shows that the employment promotion policy introduced by our city this year has obvious effect on the non-public economy. Second, the current problems that need attention (1) The labor demand situation is still not optimistic. With the continuous expansion of the scale of labor supply, the labor demand situation is not optimistic. Measured by the prosperity index of labor demand of all industries in the city, the prosperity index of labor demand of all industries in the first two quarters of 2009 showed a significant downward trend. Although the general downward trend of various industries was effectively curbed in the third quarter, the labor demand boom index of some industries continued to decline sharply. Among them, the boom index of labor demand in wholesale and retail, real estate, social service, accommodation and catering industry was 94.9, 98.9, 92.9 and 1 14.6, respectively, which decreased by 27.2, 1.4, 25. 1 and 35.9 respectively. (B) The tertiary industry has limited ability to absorb employment. Since 2000, there have been some new features in the deviation of the tertiary industry structure in Beijing. The deviation degree of the primary industrial structure continues the consistent positive deviation trend, indicating that the pressure of labor transfer is still relatively high. Before 2004, the deviation degree of the secondary industry structure began to show a trend from positive to negative, and the absolute value showed a gradual increase trend, reflecting that the absorption capacity of the secondary industry in Beijing began to increase gradually from 2004. The deviation degree of tertiary industry structure has been negative since 2000, but the absolute value has been decreasing year by year, reflecting that in recent years, while developing high-end service industry, increasing added value and enhancing competitiveness, Beijing has created fewer employment opportunities, but it lacks effective policy guidance and support for developing low-end service industry and attracting more small and medium-sized enterprises. (3) The adjustment of industrial layout leads to obvious differences in the spatial layout between the permanent population and the employed population. In recent years, with the further optimization of Beijing's industrial layout, the spatial layout of urban permanent population and employed population has shown obvious differences. On the one hand, the permanent population tends to move to the suburbs, and the employment of the permanent population in the secondary and tertiary industries has been slowly declining; On the other hand, due to the high concentration of the tertiary industry in the core area and expansion area, a large number of employed people who do not live in this area are rapidly pouring in, which leads to a rapid increase in urban employment density. This reality of separation of living and working will inevitably bring a series of problems, such as aggravating urban traffic congestion and increasing the difficulty of allocating public service resources. (D) The backward system and the lack of relevant policies have affected the employment of college graduates. In recent years, the employment situation of college graduates in China has become increasingly severe. The number of college graduates in Beijing has remained at around 200,000 since 2003, and more and more graduates can't find jobs. There are many reasons why it is difficult for college graduates to find jobs, including the fluctuation of economic cycle and the need to change their employment concept, but the education system that cannot meet the requirements of the times may be the fundamental reason. The lack of long-term planning in enrollment, educational courses and personnel training mechanism has caused the structural contradiction between supply and demand in the labor market to become increasingly prominent. In addition, there are still some problems in promoting college students' self-employment, such as the imperfect policy system and the urgent need to improve the entrepreneurial environment, which also limits the expansion of employment channels for college students to some extent. (5) Employment training is "light", which affects the training effect. In recent years, in the face of the increasingly severe employment situation, China has continuously strengthened employment training services, such as launching the "Sunshine Project" for the national rural labor transfer employment training and vocational training for college graduates. However, the actual effect of various employment training services is not obvious, because such training services are still "light" and the training of orders, high-end skills and long-term counseling is relatively lacking. It is necessary to adapt to the diversification of market demand and provide corresponding training according to different types of workers, so as to enhance the practicality and hierarchy of employment training. 3.20 10 Judging the employment situation in Beijing Based on the analysis of the employment environment in our city in 20 10, it is comprehensively judged that the employment situation in Beijing in 20 10 will be better than this year, but the structural contradictions are still outstanding. (1) The economy of the whole country and Beijing has maintained a steady upward trend, creating a good environment for the improvement of the employment situation. At present, the world economy is slowly recovering, and the employment data as a lagging indicator is also showing a good trend. According to the IMF's latest forecast of world economic growth, the world economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of 3. 1% in 20 10, and developing countries, especially China and India, will be the main driving forces of world economic growth. Judging from the domestic situation, it is expected that the focus of China's economy will gradually shift from maintaining growth to stabilizing growth and restructuring next year. We will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, further optimize the fiscal expenditure structure and industrial structure, promote the transformation and upgrading of the export-oriented economy, gradually stabilize the scale of government investment, enhance the investment capacity of enterprises and residents, and promote the transformation of the economy from policy-driven to endogenous growth. From the situation of our city, according to the analysis of the operation law of our city's economic cycle, industrial development and demand support, the overall economy of our city will be in the middle of recovery in 20 10, and it is predicted that the economic growth of Beijing will remain at around 10% in 20 10. (B) The employment situation in China is still not optimistic. Although the economic situation has obviously improved, there are many restrictive factors affecting China's employment growth, and the employment situation is still grim. First, the contradiction between labor supply exceeding demand will exist for a long time. It is predicted that in 20 10, China's total labor force will reach 830 million, and the supply of urban labor force will be about 50 million. However, from the demand situation, only 40 million jobs will be created, and the gap between labor supply and demand will reach about100000. Second, the contradiction between the professional skills and job requirements of the newly added labor force is more prominent, and the situation of surplus primary labor force and shortage of high-skilled labor force coexist. Third, a large number of unemployed people and rural surplus labor force can not meet the job requirements because of their own skills and qualities, and it is difficult to achieve the goal of re-employment and employment transfer. Fourthly, the lagging influence of the current financial crisis on the economy will continue, and it will take time for China's external demand environment to improve. Some industries and enterprises have difficulties in operation and weak demand for employment. (3) The employment situation in the capital still faces the coexistence of gross contradiction and structural contradiction. From the perspective of labor supply, the scale of urban labor supply will continue to expand, which is mainly due to the attraction of China's rapid economic growth to international talents and overseas students in the post-crisis era, the continuous expansion of college graduates, and the increase of migrants and rural migrant workers in the process of urbanization. From the perspective of labor demand, Beijing's economic growth has maintained a high employment elasticity in recent years, especially under the joint action of a series of policies to protect people's livelihood, economic growth has obviously promoted employment growth, but the growth rate of effective demand obviously lags behind the growth rate of supply. Since the beginning of this year, under the influence of the financial crisis, many industries, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, have had poor economic benefits; Next year, under the background of national overcapacity, the rising production costs such as capital cost, water price and electricity price will further squeeze the profit margin, affect the economic benefits of enterprises and inevitably affect the demand for employment. Structural contradictions remain outstanding. There is an obvious shortage of high-end R&D, business and financial talents and skilled workers needed for Beijing to build an international metropolis and develop high-end industries. Some enterprises and communities are "unemployed", making it difficult for college students to find jobs. At present, the environment for self-employment is imperfect, the labor remuneration is unattractive, the working environment, working methods and supporting policies for starting a business can not reach the expected level of the working-age labor force, and many people choose to be unemployed voluntarily, which not only increases the employment pressure in the future, but also causes the idleness or waste of labor resources. Four. Policy recommendations (1) continue to optimize the industrial structure and promote the coordinated development of employment structure and industrial structure. At present, the world economy is slowly recovering, China's economy is stabilizing and improving, and our city's economy has entered a continuous upward channel. There are indications that the worst period has passed and the world has entered the post-financial crisis era. During this period, the highlight of our city's economic development will be to continue to optimize the industrial structure on the basis of steady growth. It is necessary to give full play to the resource advantages of the capital, make the headquarters economy bigger and stronger, and gradually form a high-end, efficient and high-radiation industrial cluster. Promote the upgrading of the secondary industry to enhance employment absorption capacity, encourage the tertiary industry to develop emerging industries and life service industries, continue to tap the employment absorption space of the tertiary industry, and promote the coordinated development of employment structure and industrial structure. Accelerate the layout of multi-center industries and realize the benign development of permanent population and employed population. (2) Strengthen policy innovation, guide diversified employment of college students, improve policies to encourage college students to start businesses, and promote full employment of college graduates. Further increase the construction of entrepreneurial expert guidance team and entrepreneurial project resource pool, strengthen college students' entrepreneurial training, set up college students' entrepreneurial funding standards, implement preferential policies such as tax relief for college students' entrepreneurship, and realize the diversification of employment channels for college students. (3) Improve policies to support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, and give full play to the leading role of small and medium-sized enterprises in absorbing employment. Support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, expand their market access, strengthen the government procurement of their products, support qualified small and medium-sized enterprises to broaden financing channels through the Growth Enterprise Market, expand the scale of special funds to support the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, give financial incentives to small and medium-sized enterprises to expand employment and attract new college graduates and rural labor force, and give full play to the leading role of small and medium-sized enterprises in absorbing employment. (4) Accelerate the construction of the public service system in the human resources market and promote the equalization of urban and rural public employment services. First, speed up the construction of the public service system in the human resources market and promote the rational flow of talents. Strengthen the role of public services in promoting employment and alleviating unemployment, establish a long-term employment mechanism for serving college students, unemployed people and migrant workers, and improve the ability of employment services; The second is to create a good development environment and accelerate the equalization of urban and rural public employment services. It mainly includes strengthening grass-roots service forces, improving the quality of grass-roots personnel and innovating service means to meet the increasing employment demand of urban and rural labor force.