Second, employment pressure.
The global financial tsunami is quietly spreading to the employment market of college students. On the one hand, it is estimated that 1 10,000 college graduates will be unemployed by the end of 2008, and 5.92 million college graduates will graduate in 2009, plus tens of millions of unemployed college students who have not been employed in the past; Postgraduate enrollment expansion policy is not optimistic. Expanding enrollment is nothing more than shifting the current employment pressure to the next few years. If the employment pressure is not cushioned by the capital, it may be difficult for graduate students to find jobs in the future. On the other hand, many enterprises have cancelled campus recruitment plans, and the 2009 college students have already felt the "cold current" of employment prospects. From this cartoon, we can see that the employment demand of graduates is far from the number of jobs in enterprises. Under the financial turmoil, the employment prospects of graduates are not optimistic. The hot scene of the job fair also confirms this point.
The impact of the financial crisis will intensify the upgrading of outdated systems and technological changes in the IT industry. More and more IT enterprises will promote the continuous upgrading of products through product development. Only in this way can enterprises rise against the trend in the new predicament. At the same time, with the continuous development of IT industry, more and more domestic small and medium-sized enterprises will realize informatization. Domestic IT enterprises must combine technology upgrading with market strategy.
Third, finance is an opportunity for learning skills and long-term development.
The main industries affected by the 1 financial crisis are finance and real estate. The global financial crisis, including the overall decline of IT shares. However, compared with Europe and America, due to the structural differences in products and consumption of China's IT industry, and the limited impact of China's IT industry on the macro-fictitious economy, the international financial crisis has no obvious impact on China's IT industry pattern.
Li Xiaoguang, a staff member of Jinshan Software Company, revealed that the financial crisis had little impact on software sales from the current installation volume and total sales volume of the company's anti-virus software products. "Our products are mainly aimed at individual users, directly downloading online and paying by mobile phone. Generally around 100 yuan, it should not be affected by the financial crisis. The competitive pressure of software companies is mainly in product research and development, and they rarely need to borrow money from banks to pay the salaries of R&D personnel, so the financial repayment pressure is much less.
(A) The impact of the "financial crisis" on the IT industry in China is more opportunities than challenges.
At present, China's software outsourcing business mainly faces the consumer markets of developing countries such as Asia and Africa. The impact of the international financial crisis on the global IT industry, especially the software industry, is mainly reflected in IT powers such as Europe and America. Jinshan, Rising and other well-known domestic software-related officials said that the impact of the financial crisis on IT enterprises is very limited. China's software industry will usher in an important period of development opportunities. The "financial crisis" is more opportunity than impact for China IT industry.
The impact of the financial crisis will intensify the upgrading of outdated systems and technological changes in the IT industry. More and more IT enterprises will promote the continuous upgrading of products through product development. Only in this way can enterprises rise against the trend in the new predicament. At the same time, with the continuous development of IT industry, more and more domestic small and medium-sized enterprises will realize informatization. Domestic IT enterprises must combine technology upgrading with market strategy.
The financial crisis may lead to the return of a number of IT talents, and large global companies will pay more attention to the China market. Li Xiaoguang, an employee of Jinshan Software Company, noticed that the financial crisis may be a good opportunity for domestic IT companies to develop. "Our company's strategy is to seize the opportunity to acquire American technology companies that are valuable for our product development." .
(B) financial opportunities, learning skills, long-term development.
Education is a lifelong investment. After the economic recovery, the competition will become more and more fierce, and only a skill can make you invincible. Therefore, the economic crisis is coming, which is just a good time to study. It is suggested that people in the workplace take the opportunity to "return to the furnace" to reserve knowledge, which can not only increase their employment chips, but also be used in economic recovery. It is suggested that we should not only look at the immediate interests, but also look at the longer term.
At present, there are 3,000 software service outsourcing enterprises in China, and the prelude of industry consolidation and merger has been opened. M&A means opportunities for domestic software companies to recruit talents. We need sophisticated technical talents, and "taking finance as an opportunity" is a rare opportunity to attract IT talents. Under the influence of the macro-financial turmoil, the country also takes the high-tech information industry as the focus industry.
If the export growth rate declines, it will face more trade protection barriers. The global economy will have a huge negative impact on the export of China enterprises. As the United States is the main source of China's trade surplus, the economic slowdown in the United States not only reduces the export growth rate of China, but also reduces the scale of China's trade surplus. In addition, the economic growth of Europe, Japan and emerging market economies was also affected by the financial crisis, and the import demand began to show a downward trend.
In the first half of the year, many small and medium-sized enterprises in the Pearl River Delta and other places closed down. As far as the industry is concerned, it is mainly the toy industry, followed by the textile and garment export industry. After careful analysis, it can be found that it is mainly processing trade enterprises that limit bankruptcy. It should be pointed out that the decline in export growth and the closure of export enterprises can not be entirely attributed to the impact of the financial crisis, but have a lot to do with the appreciation of the renminbi, rising domestic production and operation costs, backward technical level and unreasonable economic structure. The export enterprises that are hit often belong to labor-intensive industries, and most of them are private enterprises. In this round of economic restructuring, these enterprises are listed as adjustment targets, but the arrival of the financial crisis has increased the pressure faced by such enterprises, or the adjustment has come ahead of schedule. For other enterprises, the impact of the financial crisis is relatively small.
At the same time, in the face of the crisis, China's export enterprises need to be alert to trade protection measures in the international market. According to experience, when the economic growth rate of China's main export destination countries slows down, its domestic protectionist forces will rise. In the coming period, it is estimated that developed countries will introduce more protectionist measures against China at the legislative level and WTO level.
Second, the performance of overseas investment enterprises has declined and operating costs have increased. Affected by the economic slowdown in the countries where overseas investment enterprises are located, the performance of overseas investment enterprises in China is not optimistic. The credit crunch in the host country will lead to tight business liquidity and a corresponding increase in capital demand; If the host country implements capital account control, the capital flow chain between overseas enterprises and domestic enterprises will be broken. The United States, the euro zone and other regions inject a lot of liquidity into the financial market, which may lead to the depreciation of currencies such as the US dollar and the euro, thus causing losses to the company's profits. However, during the economic downturn, the host country often abandons or resists the principle of freedom of investment, and implements administrative intervention or negative governance measures for the approval or operation of foreign capital, thus increasing the risks of foreign-funded enterprises. In addition, the slowdown of the host country's economic growth is accompanied by more problems such as the increase of contract default rate and the increase of national risks, which will increase the risks faced by enterprises outside China.
Three, the international commodity market prices fell, the cost of raw materials in China enterprises fell. A few years ago, due to the depreciation of the US dollar, the prevalence of speculation, strong demand and other factors, international commodity prices remained high. After the financial crisis broke out, international financial institutions were short of liquidity and gradually withdrew their funds from the commodity market. At the same time, investors are becoming more and more pessimistic about the growth prospects of the world economy, thus expecting that the demand for bulk commodities will decline and prices will fall. The international crude oil price has dropped from the historical high of 1.40 USD to the present 60 USD. Iron ore prices also stopped rising and began to pull back. China has become a major buyer in the international commodity market. The decline in international commodity prices will greatly ease the pressure of rising costs of enterprises in China and increase the voice of enterprises in China on prices.
Fourth, the international financial market is turbulent and the risk of foreign exchange derivatives is rising. Recently, CITIC Pacific, China Railway (5.45, 0.0 1, 0. 18%, right), China Railway Construction (9.85, 0. 13, 1.34%, right) and other enterprises have incurred losses in investing in foreign exchange derivatives. After the formation of the global financial crisis, the international financial market was turbulent, and the fluctuation range of international currencies such as the US dollar, the euro, the British pound and the Australian dollar increased, which greatly increased the risk of engaging in foreign exchange transactions. Previously, some China enterprises engaged in hedging transactions in international trade or investment to avoid exchange rate losses; Other enterprises engage in speculative trading of foreign exchange derivatives, and the risk factors in these transactions can not be ignored. Of course, due to the low degree of internationalization of enterprises in China, the strict control of overseas investment by the financial supervision authorities in China, and the cautious attitude of China enterprises towards overseas investment and financial management, the losses of China enterprises in the international financial market are only cases, which have no universal significance, but they should be vigilant.
Measures taken by enterprises in China to cope with the financial crisis.
The global financial crisis is impacting China's economy in transition, and its negative impact on China enterprises is beginning to appear. However, it should be pointed out that when analyzing the factors that the financial crisis affects China enterprises, external shocks should be separated from the characteristics of China's own economic cycle to avoid drawing wrong conclusions. In the face of unfavorable economic reality, what countermeasures do China enterprises have?
First of all, export enterprises should actively implement market diversification. Although the economic slowdown in the United States will drag down the economic growth of other economies, it is still possible for China enterprises to expand their exports through market diversification. The rapid economic growth in the Middle East, Africa, Latin China, Indian and Russian emerging markets will also be affected by the financial crisis, but there is still growth, which should be the target market for's export enterprises. At the same time, the commodities exported by China are mainly low-grade commodities. When income decreases, the demand for high-grade goods first drops, followed by low-grade goods. Therefore, the financial crisis has little impact on China enterprises, and China enterprises should devote themselves to market diversification to ensure the growth of export volume.
Secondly, take the domestic demand market as the guide and actively adjust the structure. Because China's financial system is basically isolated from the outside world, the basic aspects of China's economy are good compared with other major economies. After years of rapid development, China's national income has been continuously improved, and its internal demand is gradually booming. Therefore, when the external market is in deep financial crisis, the domestic demand market with great potential should become an important target market for China enterprises. In order to make up for the impact of export decline on economic growth, macro-policy will focus on expanding domestic demand, and investment and consumption will become the main forces driving economic growth. The government will launch large-scale infrastructure construction projects, thus creating demand for enterprises. Therefore, in addition to expanding exports, export enterprises should also actively expand the domestic market to make up for the decline of the external market with the growth of the domestic market. More importantly, China enterprises should take the crisis as an opportunity to upgrade and transform, increase R&D, improve product quality, strengthen management and optimize industrial and product structure.
Third, carefully implement overseas "bottom-hunting". Under the impact of the financial crisis, many international financial institutions have fallen into a liquidity crisis, and their asset values have fallen sharply. The prices of resource commodities such as crude oil and iron ore are adjusted back. Many people think that it is a good opportunity for China enterprises to go out and implement "shortcut", but we should bear in mind the lessons of Japanese enterprises "shortcut" in the United States in 1980s. On the one hand, the assets of some troubled enterprises are opaque, and it is not known whether the bubble has been completely squeezed out. "copy the bottom" may be copied on the "waist". On the other hand, the United States and other countries will not sell excellent assets to China enterprises for the sake of national interests and shareholders' interests. Some governments may impose restrictions on large-scale foreign investment in China. In addition, due to the differences in corporate culture and national habits, it is also a great challenge for China enterprises to operate successfully after successful mergers and acquisitions. Therefore, faced with the opportunity of "bargain hunting", China enterprises must think twice before acting.