In order to bail out housing enterprises, the regulatory authorities have recently taken frequent shots. On April 18, the central bank and the foreign exchange bureau issued 23 measures to support the economy and finance, mentioning that "commercial banks and financial asset management companies should provide financial services for the merger and reorganization of risk disposal projects of key real estate enterprises"; On April 25th, the central bank convened a special meeting of state-owned banks, joint-stock banks and asset management companies to discuss the bailed-out housing enterprises, and determined the first batch of 12 bailed-out housing enterprises.
It is worth noting that in recent days, in response to the resumption of real estate production, various localities have introduced relevant support policies. For example, Xuzhou recently held a conference on the real estate industry's resumption of work and relief, and put forward specific measures such as reducing the land auction deposit 18; In addition, at present, more than 10 cities have successively adjusted the supervision measures for the pre-sale funds of commercial housing to help the housing enterprises in difficulty to resume work and production.
At the same time, some housing enterprises have also made efforts to resume work and production by transferring projects or equity and cooperating with third parties to ensure the delivery of buildings. For example, at present, Evergrande Group has realized the normal start of 562 Baojiao Building projects, and 179 Baojiao Building projects are in the process of resuming work. Of the 49 projects that should be resumed in Fantasia, 39 have been resumed, with an overall resumption rate of 80%; As of March 24th, Shimao has fully resumed more than 20 projects nationwide/kloc-0. By the end of March, Aoyuan Real Estate officially resumed production in more than 30 projects nationwide/kloc-0.
Source: Guan Wei of Evergrande Group
Real estate actively returns to work "walk the building"
In the industry's view, the shutdown of many real estates since last year is basically caused by factors such as high turnover and high leverage development mode formed by housing enterprises for a long time. Under the new situation, it is difficult to sustain the epidemic situation.
Of course, the local real estate shutdown can be roughly divided into two situations. One is affected by epidemic prevention and control, such as Jilin and Shanghai; The other is caused by problems in the capital chain of housing distribution enterprises in the lower part of the industry downturn.
Since last year, many real estate enterprises, such as Evergrande, Caesar, Fantasia Year and Blu-ray Development, have experienced debt crises, even much cry and little rain. The real estate projects developed by these real estate enterprises are all over the key cities in China, so the phenomenon of work stoppage also involves many cities.
In fact, the real estate industry has continued to decline this year. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the newly started residential area and residential sales decreased by 20.3% and 25.6% from June to March this year.
At the same time, the willingness of housing enterprises to push the market has dropped significantly this year. According to the statistics of the Central Reference Institute, from June 5438 to April this year, the average monthly supply scale of commercial housing in 50 key cities in China was 146 1 10,000 square meters, down by over 40% year-on-year, and down by 37.3% compared with the average of 20 19-202 1 same period. Especially in April, the newly approved listing area was 6.5438+0.688 million square meters, which was over 50% lower than the same period last year.
Since the beginning of this year, the central government and various ministries and commissions have frequently expressed their views on maintaining the stability of the real estate market, and local governments are also actively implementing the city-specific policy. According to the incomplete statistics of the Central Reference Institute, since the beginning of this year, more than 100 cities across the country have optimized and adjusted their real estate policies for more than 200 times. Especially since April, the pace of introducing policies in various places has been significantly accelerated, and policies have been further extended to optimize the purchase restriction, loan restriction and sales restriction. Some first-and second-tier cities have also joined the ranks of policy optimization and adjustment.
"In the face of the uncertainty caused by the multi-point spread of the current epidemic and the lack of confidence of buyers in home ownership, the regulatory policies introduced in the past when the market was hot were no longer suitable for the current market environment. This unreasonable real estate policy should be withdrawn in time, and policies such as purchase restriction, loan restriction and sales restriction on the demand side should be optimized and adjusted to stabilize market sentiment. "
Chen Wenjing, director of market research of the Index Division of the Central Reference Institute, told the reporter of the National Business Daily on WeChat in the afternoon of May 10 that all enterprises should increase the efforts of housing enterprises to solve difficulties, improve the financing environment, continue to optimize the supervision of pre-sale funds, release more liquidity for enterprises, and ease the financial pressure of enterprises, thus stabilizing market expectations.
Since the Spring Festival this year, some real estate enterprises in danger have begun to actively resume work and production, and achieved good results.
On May 5th, Evergrande held the monthly working meeting of the Group. Xu Jiayin said that Evergrande began to resume production on the sixth day of the Lunar New Year, and the Group cooperated with Qixin Qi Xin. At present, 562 walk-in building projects have started normally, and 179 walk-in building projects are being resumed. In April, it achieved sales of 3.09 billion yuan, and resolutely completed the delivery target of 654.38+10,000 sets in May.
The WeChat account of "Investor Relations in Fantasia Year" also showed on May 5 that in April, potential investors invested in Cantonese to enter the market in another way, assisted Fantasia Year in implementing the debt restructuring plan, and ensured the resumption and delivery of many difficult projects. At present, 39 of the 49 project blocks that should be resumed in Fantasia have resumed work, and the overall resumption rate has reached 80%. The rest of the blocks have clear plans and corresponding measures to resume work, and it is expected that all of them will resume work before June 30.
In addition, as of March 24th, Shimao National Super 120 project has been fully resumed; By the end of March, Aoyuan Real Estate officially resumed production in more than 30 projects nationwide/kloc-0.
However, in Chen Wenjing's view, "since the beginning of this year, the overall real estate market has been operating at a low temperature, most urban markets have been continuously adjusted, and the motivation for enterprises to start work is obviously insufficient, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate development investment has continued to slow down. At the end of April, the the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting decided to adjust the property market to' support local governments to improve real estate policies according to local conditions, support rigid and improved housing demand, optimize the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market', but the pace of market recovery still depends on the effective prevention and control of the epidemic and the implementation of local policies. "
More than ten cities adjust the supervision measures of pre-sale funds
On May 10, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the Measures for the Supervision of Pre-sale Funds of Commercial Houses in Shanxi Province, clarifying that if the construction progress reaches the top of the above-ground main project, the remaining balance in the supervision account shall not be less than 40% of the total amount of key supervision funds.
Source: official website, Shanxi Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development.
According to the statistics of the Central Reference Institute, more than ten cities such as Nanjing, Yantai, Nanping, Foshan and Changde have adjusted the supervision measures for pre-sale funds one after another this year.
From the details of the adjustment, cities can improve the efficiency of the use of pre-sale funds by speeding up the examination and approval efficiency, relaxing the proportion of fund supervision, and replacing the bank guarantee, and at the same time reduce the pressure on the precipitation of key supervision funds of housing enterprises.
Among them, Nanjing, Xuzhou and other cities use bank guarantee to supervise the pre-sale of commercial housing, and Nanjing enterprises can replace the supervision funds in the supervision account with bank guarantee. However, it is required that real estate enterprises have not been subject to administrative punishment for illegal use of pre-sale supervision funds of commercial housing within two years before applying, and have not been frozen by the judiciary, deducted illegal funds, defaulted on project funds, and owed wages to migrant workers.
Changde appropriately relaxed the proportion of pre-sale funds. On the premise that the credit rating of development enterprises is good, the sales funds of development projects are fully collected, and the application funds are guaranteed for project construction, the amount of pre-sale funds of development enterprises can be increased by 5 percentage points on the basis of the original provisions. Yueyang stipulates that housing enterprises can temporarily store the capital of real estate development projects, and after realizing the sales revenue, they can leave enough project capital in the fund supervision account, and the existing project capital can apply for deregulation one node in advance.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, told the reporter of National Business Daily on May 1 1 that "the overall policy of pre-sale supervision funds for commercial housing is still tightening, but it is also flexible and flexible, that is, floating up and down by 5%, and some high-quality housing enterprises can better realize the withdrawal of funds under the policy. Taking Shanxi as an example, based on the current situation of the real estate market, the probability of actually lowering 5% will be even greater, which can play a role in protecting and encouraging housing enterprises. "
Although many places have relaxed the supervision funds for the pre-sale of commercial housing to varying degrees, can these relaxations substantially promote the "guaranteed delivery" of housing enterprises?
"According to estimates, the pre-sale fund supervision of the project generally accounts for 30%-40% of the total pre-sale funds. If the supervision of pre-sale funds is relaxed, the proportion of pre-sale funds supervision will drop by about 10%, which will help alleviate the financial shortage of housing enterprises, but the degree of relief is limited. "
Liu Shuitong, research director of the Enterprise Division of the Central Reference Institute, told the WeChat reporter that the key points to really help housing enterprises out of the predicament are: First, distinguish project risks from enterprise group risks, and financial institutions cannot lend or break loans; Second, the focus of the bail-out is on housing enterprises in danger. The central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission encourage high-quality housing enterprises to issue M&A bonds, raise M&A loans and collect high-quality projects of housing enterprises in danger.
Regarding the favorable window of this round of bail-out, Liu Shui thinks: "The first focus of this round of bail-out is sales. At present, the central government supports rigid and improved demand and encourages the adjustment of real estate policies due to the city's policies. Enterprises should seize the window of policy relaxation and increase sales rebates; The second is to actively issue bonds with the help of the current government's encouragement of M&A financing; The third is to take land reasonably, and high-quality plots can be taken, but we must control the pace of land acquisition, scientifically calculate and ensure a reasonable profit margin. "