I. Analysis of employment situation in the third quarter of 2121

(I) Basic situation of employment in the third quarter

In the third quarter, domestic epidemic prevention and control achieved strategic results. With the implementation of a series of policies and measures, the resumption of work and production accelerated, the main economic indicators recovered, the labor market showed a recovery trend, the unemployment rate gradually declined from the high point in the first quarter, the phenomenon of industrial suspension of work and waiting for work eased, and the overall employment situation tended to be stable. However, enterprises in some industries, especially small and micro enterprises, have not yet extricated themselves from difficulties. The employment problems of key groups such as college graduates and female personnel are prominent, and the constraints of insufficient demand on enterprise production and employment expansion are increasingly apparent. Therefore, while affirming the achievements, we must not relax at all.

according to statistics, from October to August, 7.8 million people were newly employed in cities and towns, accounting for 86.8% of the target of 9 million new jobs in the whole year, with a decrease of about 3 percentage points compared with that in June, but it was 2.13 million less than that in the same period last year. In August, the urban unemployment rate was 5.6%, down 1.1 percentage point from last month and 1.6 percentage point from the highest point of 6.2% in February, but it was still at a high level compared with 5.2% in the same period last year. In August, the average weekly working hours of employees in enterprises nationwide were 46.8 hours, 2.5 hours more than that in April, and exceeding the level of the same period last year. According to the online recruitment data of Zhaopin, 58 City, etc., the number of people in need of recruitment has increased greatly compared with the previous year. According to the dynamic monitoring of unemployment, the continuous loss of jobs in enterprises decreased in the third quarter, and there was a positive signal of stop loss in stock employment. In August, the index of employees in manufacturing, non-manufacturing and service industries rebounded by 1.1, 1.2 and 1.5 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month, indicating that the employment boom has improved.

with the continuous release of the policy effects of "six stabilities" and "six guarantees", the vitality of market players is constantly enhanced, the economic recovery is stable, and some indicators are better than expected. It is expected to achieve the task of creating new jobs in cities and towns with more than 9 million people throughout the year, but there is still a big gap compared with the employment increase in the previous year. Generally speaking, the employment pressure should not be underestimated, the future employment development trend is not optimistic, and the problems and difficulties faced should not be underestimated. We should make preparations early, make plans and deal with them in time. At the same time, we should also see the favorable opportunities in the recent employment development, such as the establishment of a dual-cycle development pattern, which makes stabilizing employment and increasing income a key link to promote consumption and expand demand, and makes the position and role of employment more prominent; Another example is the application of new technology in the epidemic, which brings out a new form of employment and a new mode of online operation, which has a positive impact on employment; Another example is that in addition to the traditional urban-rural dual structure, many regional development and growth poles have been formed, and more employment centers and new labor market spatial patterns have been formed, and so on.

(II) Three major problems

In the third quarter and even in the future, three major problems gradually emerged, which must be paid attention to:

First, the employment risk caused by insufficient industry resumption and the difficult situation of small and micro enterprises. In the first half of the year, the COVID-19 epidemic had a direct impact on the whole industry, which mainly interrupted the supply chain of personnel and logistics, resulting in the disorder of labor supply and demand. In the third quarter, affected by the epidemic, some industries still failed to resume production, especially some service industries with intensive contacts, such as cultural and sports entertainment, domestic care, fitness and beauty, cross-border tourism, hotel catering and other industries, which could not operate normally for a long time due to the epidemic, and employees were unemployed for a large area. The employees in these industries are mainly low-end laborers and female workers, and the industrial scale unemployment has caused great employment and life pressure to some workers. In addition, small and medium-sized enterprises with weak pressure resistance are still difficult to get out of trouble. In August, the PMI of small enterprises continued to decline, reaching 47.7%, down 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. Market entities such as small, medium and micro enterprises and self-employed individuals are the main channels and basic plates to attract employment. However, since the epidemic, they have been hit the hardest and affected for a longer time, and many subjects are facing the critical point of survival. In the survey, some places also reported that the closure of small shops and factories such as small and medium-sized enterprises and self-employed households has increased recently, and the difficulties are difficult to solve or even aggravate, which has brought great pressure to market marginal groups and flexible employees such as migrant workers and people with employment difficulties in cities and towns.

Second, college graduates and poor rural households are facing new employment pressures. This year, the supply of college graduates is large (reaching a new high of 8.74 million), and it is more difficult because of the post contraction and recruitment delay in the epidemic. In August, the youth unemployment rate with college graduates as the main body increased significantly. The unemployment rate of people aged 21-24 with college education or above was 5.4 percentage points higher than that of the same period of last year. The number of registered unemployed graduates who left school also increased significantly compared with last year. This year, the implementation time of college graduates' employment is at least 3 months later than in previous years, and even will be over the New Year. Solving their employment problem is related to the whole society and the future, and greater efforts should be made. There are still many problems in rural labor employment, but we should pay special attention to the 27 million migrant workers who are poor households with files and cards. They are in a weak position in the job market, and their employment is most vulnerable under the influence of the epidemic. If they return to poverty, it will be difficult to achieve the sustainability of poverty alleviation.

Third, demand recovery lags behind production and supply, and insufficient demand will bring great pressure to subsequent employment. From October to August, industrial production increased by 1.4% year-on-year, and the service industry production index decreased by 3.6% year-on-year; Investment decreased by 1.3%, consumption decreased by 8.6%, and exports decreased by 2.3%. By comparison, we can find that the recovery rate of demand is slower than that of production and supply. The survey of manufacturing PMI index shows that more than 51% of the enterprises surveyed still list insufficient orders as the primary difficulty. The level of demand and economic growth are interactive: the decline of demand leads to the decline of economic growth, which in turn slows down the income growth in all aspects; The decline in income will reduce the consumption ability and confidence of residents, the investment ability and confidence of enterprises, and further reduce the demand for consumption and investment. According to the data of the big data platform of the market main body of the Enterprise Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, the number of newly established industrial enterprises decreased for two consecutive months from July to August, with growth rates of -1.38% and -12.29% respectively. The changes of leading index and lagging index of DRC macroeconomic prosperity index show that the economic recovery rate is slowing down. It can be judged that the problem of insufficient demand and insufficient orders has obviously restricted the expectation of further expansion of production. Restricted by insufficient market demand, the pace of further economic recovery began to slow down. The speed of economic recovery plays an important role in determining employment. Judging from the relationship between economic growth rate and new jobs in cities and towns in recent years, the GDP growth rate of 1 percentage points contributes about 2.2 million jobs. According to this proportional relationship, the GDP growth rate should not be less than 4% to complete the task of creating new jobs in cities and towns with more than 9 million people this year. It should also be noted that in 2119, there were 13.52 million new jobs in cities and towns, and the employment capacity in that year was almost saturated. If the number of new jobs in cities and towns reaches 9 million this year, there is a big gap with the increase in employment in the previous year, and the resulting employment pressure cannot be underestimated. If the employment situation is not good and the income level is not high, it will not be conducive to the expansion of consumption and aggravate the shortage of demand. Therefore, we must solve the outstanding contradiction of insufficient demand as soon as possible, whether from the perspective of fully unblocking the domestic economic cycle or from the perspective of promoting employment and increasing income.

ii. countermeasures and suggestions for doing a good job in stabilizing employment and ensuring employment

at present, it is in a critical period to do a good job in employment throughout the year, and it is also a critical stage to fully complete the objectives of the 13th Five-Year Plan and lay the foundation for the formulation and implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan. Main working ideas: First, solidly promote the in-depth implementation and concerted efforts of various policies to stabilize employment and ensure employment since the outbreak of the epidemic, and strive to achieve greater results. Second, on the basis of adhering to the implementation of the GSP policy, we will pay more attention to the formulation and implementation of the policy of "special regions, special industries and specific groups". Third, while strengthening the public employment policy, pay more attention to stimulating market vitality. Fourth, while trying to solve the current outstanding problems, we should pay more attention to filling shortcomings, improving institutional mechanisms and preventing large-scale unemployment and other emergencies.

(1) Adhere to the employment priority policy and enrich and improve the policy toolbox

First, in view of the contradictions arising from the implementation of the resumption of production and stable employment after the outbreak this year, the policy toolbox is not perfect, and the macro policies are not coordinated, we will further strengthen the ideological understanding of governments at all levels to protect employment and people's livelihood, stabilize employment and stabilize the economy, adhere to employment priority, actively pave the way for people to start businesses, and correctly handle the contradictions between social and economic governance and employment.

the second is to enrich and improve policy tools and strengthen macro-policy coordination. Further promote the implementation of the "employment priority" policy as a macro policy at the work level, enrich and improve the policy toolkit for stabilizing employment and ensuring employment, make the policy focus on combining the prevention and control of large-scale unemployment risks with the resolution of new contradictions in the employment structure, and continue to implement existing emergency policies with the establishment of long-term policies and long-term mechanisms.

the third is to establish a financial input evaluation mechanism to improve the ability to guarantee funds. Explore the establishment of an evaluation and assessment mechanism for the effectiveness of employment promotion of major projects with financial input and conduct pilot projects. The employment indicators of key groups will be absorbed and included in the performance evaluation, supervision and audit of 2 trillion new financial funds; Comprehensively balance the long-term and short-term policy effects and related capital affordability, expand the sources of funds for stabilizing employment and ensuring employment, expand the plate of policy funds, and suggest that the central level establish a reserve fund to deal with large-scale unemployment and increase the overall planning of funds; Modify the methods for the use of employment funds, or introduce temporary regulations, give local funds autonomy, and improve the flexibility, pertinence and effectiveness of the use of funds. Monetary policy should actively follow the pace and intensity of countercyclical adjustment of macro-policies, pay attention to preventing the short-term rapid expansion of government funds from crowding out other financing entities in the financial market, and ensure that all kinds of market entities have a relatively relaxed financing environment.

(2) Make efforts to expand domestic demand and smooth the domestic economic cycle

First, in view of the impact of insufficient market demand on the actual income and expectations of enterprises and residents, the government should increase investment. When the market demand is insufficient and restricts the economic growth, the income of enterprises and residents will decline or grow slowly. It is not easy to earn money and find a job. In this state, the behavior of enterprises and residents guided by the market will have obvious pro-cyclical characteristics, that is, prudent investment and prudent consumption, so as to avoid risks. Therefore, in order to expand demand under the background of insufficient demand, we must give full play to the countercyclical adjustment function of the government's macroeconomic policies, plan and implement major engineering projects from the overall situation and long-term consideration, and effectively boost investment in infrastructure, public services, ecological protection and other aspects. Through the strengthening of government investment, enterprises can increase orders, and through the increase of orders, enterprises can improve their operating income, operating rate, investment desire and ability, which can promote the general increase of recruitment and salary increase, thus having a positive impact on increasing employment and residents' income, and thus laying a better foundation for promoting consumption and expanding demand.

the second is to give full play to the countercyclical adjustment function of the government's macro policies. By expanding the fiscal deficit and expanding the scale of government bond issuance, the government's ability to pay will be greatly improved. Efforts will be made to boost investment in infrastructure, public services, ecological and environmental protection facilities, and promote investment growth. In particular, it is closely integrated with the tasks of "two new and one heavy" and short board, and vigorously increases the project reserve. It is necessary to combine with the long-term goals of new industrialization, informationization, urbanization and agricultural modernization, formulate an overall long-term development plan, and accordingly guide the selection of projects that make up the shortcomings of infrastructure and public services, and vigorously increase project reserves. At the same time, it is necessary to make arrangements for the use of relevant funds, prevent precipitation, and effectively improve the actual effect of supporting shortcomings and expanding domestic demand.

(3) Improve the pertinence of policies and intensify the "sinking" of policies

First, in view of the current situation that most small and micro enterprises are still in trouble and do not enjoy relevant policy support, it is suggested to strengthen policy support for small and micro enterprises and other market entities to stabilize the basic employment market. Continue to strengthen the implementation of fiscal and monetary policies such as tax reduction and exemption, rent reduction and exemption, credit support, interest rate reduction and interest discount reduction for small and medium-sized enterprises; Strengthen the implementation of the policy of helping enterprises to stabilize their posts, expand the benefits of small and micro enterprises, lower the threshold of return and increase the proportion of return; Measures to study how the policies of small and medium-sized enterprises can be put into place, and the existing policies to stabilize jobs and promote employment and the corresponding funds will be sunk to market entities such as small and micro enterprises and self-employed households through third-party packaged policy services such as platforms, entrepreneurial parks or human resources service institutions; Continue to deepen, especially in the first year of the 14 th Five-Year Plan, the implementation of preferential policies such as "reduction and exemption" for small and medium-sized enterprises will be continued, and their confidence and expectations will be enhanced while making up for this year's losses.

Second, in view of the fact that some industries are affected by the epidemic, the resumption of work is delayed, the employment is seriously damaged, and the income is difficult to make up, it is suggested to study the policies and measures for enterprises in key industries to stabilize their jobs. For some industries seriously affected by the epidemic, while introducing industrial economic stimulus policies, we will increase the policy of stabilizing employment for industrial enterprises and expand the scope of policy benefits; Organize special activities to promote industrial employment and entrepreneurship, and help enterprises to stabilize their posts and return to work. Organize job-transfer training and entrepreneurship training for industrial unemployed people, give policy support, and promote their employment and entrepreneurship.

Third, we should gather strength to implement the work of promoting stable employment of key groups. In view of the "depression" in the employment work in recent months, that is, the difficulty of college graduates' employment and the risk of poor labor returning to poverty, special classes and special studies should be conducted to make the deployed action measures "stick to the end", and special personnel should be assigned to carry them out, and an effective feedback inspection mechanism should be established. When necessary, special policies can be implemented. At the same time, it is necessary to prevent college students from falsifying data in order to meet the task standards in employment and employment poverty alleviation.

(4) increase support for new employment forms and flexible employment to stimulate market vitality

At present, there are obvious deficiencies in labor security systems that adapt to the development of new employment forms and flexible employment. On the one hand, the application of the current labor law is based on the premise of confirming the labor relationship between enterprises and workers, that is, signing a labor contract, while the new employment form is difficult to identify the labor relationship, which leads to problems such as difficult labor disputes and difficult maintenance of labor rights and interests. On the other hand, workers in the new employment form have no industrial injury insurance and unemployment insurance, and the proportion of employees participating in basic old-age insurance and basic medical insurance is very low, so it is difficult to resist occupational risks and they have great worries. In view of this, the suggestions are as follows:

First, formulate and implement labor standards suitable for platform practitioners.

Second, according to the principle of equality of rights and obligations, benefits and responsibilities, we should promptly formulate measures for the management of industrial injury insurance that are suitable for the work characteristics of employees in new formats.

Third, tailor-made social insurance systems such as pension, medical care and unemployment, and provide convenient services.

the fourth is to study and formulate labor laws, dispute handling and supervision systems suitable for new forms of employment.

Fifth, set up a new form of employment workers' trade union organization, so as to carry out equal consultation with platform enterprises and other related parties and change the unequal and unbalanced state between employers and employees.

(5) Strengthen the function of unemployment insurance and firmly grasp the bottom line of people's livelihood

The unemployment insurance system needs to play a greater role in the face of major unemployment risks. At present, unemployment insurance does play an active role in helping enterprises to stabilize their posts, promoting employment and supporting training, but there are big shortcomings in ensuring the bottom line of life. Unemployment has greatly increased under the epidemic this year, and a large number of unemployed people are in urgent need of help. However, the number of people enjoying unemployment insurance has not increased but decreased. One of the reasons.