What's the difference between stock trading and gambling?

what's the difference between stock trading and gambling? Some people say that there is no difference between gambling and others that there is a difference, one is legal and the other is illegal.

, the biggest difference between stock trading and gambling should be the people involved.

Gambling, as most people know, is a kind of poison, and if you lose nine out of ten, you will lose everything, so people will stay away from it.

Stock trading, for some people, they know what they are doing, so they can do it with ease and make money from it, while for most people, they don't know what they are doing, so they often leave at a loss.

One of the differences is that the possible results are different

There are many ways to gamble, which can be dice, bridge, poker and so on. However, there are only two kinds of results in any way, either winning or losing, so in terms of probability, it is a half-open result, which means the winning rate is 51%.

if you only bet a certain amount of chips every time, the result after many times should be no loss and no win, regardless of the cheat of the dealer. This is a zero-sum game.

Of course, this is not the case. Casinos have to make money, bookmakers have to make money, and cheaters have to make money, so the actual rules are unlikely to make people win money.

Because everyone knows that this will be the result, people stay away from gambling.

There are many possible results for stocks. For A-shares, there is a price limit for stocks, with a maximum increase of 11% and a maximum decrease of 11% a day.

however, as far as the trading results in one day are concerned, there are 21 possibilities, which are 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, 9%, 11% and 1%, 2%, 3%, 4% and 5% respectively. This is not the decimal point between each percentage point, such as 1.11%, 1.12%, etc., so there are thousands of possibilities between each percentage point, which is 21*111=2111 possibilities in general.

the probability of winning in p>2111 possibilities is 51%, but it is not. After deducting the handling fee ranging from 1.3% to 1%, it must be increased by at least 1.5% for only one day to make a profit, but what is the probability?

even if you make money on the first day, under the trading rules of T+1, what is the probability that the market will continue to rise the next day? In fact, as long as you open a little lower the next day, you are at a loss.

Therefore, the author thinks that in terms of short-term trading, the probability of making money from stock trading is much smaller than that from gambling. Many people who have some experience in stock trading will warn novices not to speculate in the short term. If it is too short-term, you might as well gamble!

the second difference is that the time is different

in the casino, the next bet will soon produce results, win or lose. No matter whether you win or lose, as long as you are willing to keep betting, you can bet a lot and bet a lot a day.

But in the stock market, under the environment of A-share T+1, you can only bet once a day, and the result is unknown. There are only four hours of trading time in a day. After a day of trading, everyone will think about whether to sell or buy tomorrow when they go back at night, which leads to frequent low opening or high opening, which in turn increases uncertainty, and uncertainty is risk for stocks.

So, in order to increase the winning rate of stock investment, people start to lengthen the time. In the long run, the stock market must be upward, because the company value will continue to increase and the economy will continue to rise.

Therefore, people begin to pay more attention to the value and growth of the company. As long as the company is valuable and has certain growth, it should be able to make money in the future.

but at the casino table, you can't do that. You can't tell bookmakers and casino owners that I'll go home first and study and calculate carefully, and where should I bet?

As a matter of fact, as far as I know, there was a person in history who used physical mechanics, mathematical probability and other multidisciplinary knowledge to calculate where the dice would stop every time they were thrown, because it was still the force that drove the dice to move. In this way, he did make money in the casino, and turned 11 thousand into more than 111 thousand in one day, but in the end he was caught by the casino people and played out.

This person is the apprentice of claude elwood shannon, the originator of information theory, and the founder of option capital asset pricing model, Tereno.

in terms of knowledge and ability, how do ordinary people compare with Shannon's apprentice and the founder of the capital asset pricing model?

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In fact, the biggest difference between stock trading and gambling! !

the stock market is a story! ! I'm just teasing you! ! You are speculating while listening to the story!

There is no story about gambling. It's a blink of an eye! ! Lose or lose. There's no story! ! (This is probably the superiority of T+1! )