The tables have turned, and pork has soared recently.

From August p>2118 to February 2122, the pig market experienced a cycle of falling to rising for nearly four years. From the end of March 2122, the pig price bottomed out and started a new round of pig rising cycle. The pig price rose from 5.87 yuan to 9.56 yuan/kg today. In just three months and 111 days, the pig price per kg increased by 3.

judging from the rising trend of live pigs, the price of live pigs has experienced an accelerated rising process of "slow first, then fast", especially in recent days. On June 28th, the average price of three yuan per catty outside the country rose by 1.38 yuan, and 1.7 yuan, a pig per catty in Beijing and Tianjin, and 1.6 yuan, a pig per catty in Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang, all set new records for one-day increase after the year.

The following are the specific quotations for the price increase in various places:

The price of pigs has risen, and it has continued to rise by a large margin. Some netizens left a message in the background, worried that if the price of pigs continues to rise like this, it will not sell a catty of pork for 27 or 8 yuan, as in 2119, 2121 and 2121, and even in some places it will exceed the "sky-high price" of a catty of pork in 31 yuan.

Before discussing this issue, let's take a look at the current pork prices in all parts of the country:

The latest pork quotation on June 28th shows that: gaoqing county, Liaoning Province,, Shanxi Xinrong District,, 12 yuan/kg, Jianshi County, Hubei Province, 11 yuan/kg, Pujiang County, Sichuan Province, 14 yuan/kg, 12.5 yuan/kg.

Please refer to the attached table for the quotation of pork in other regions.

According to the monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was RMB 11.21/kg on June 27th, up 3.1% from last Friday.

According to another media report, the national average retail price of pork was 26.57 yuan/kg, up 1.6% from the previous week and 8.1% from the same period last year.

At present, the price of pigs is rising, and pork is also rising. It is understandable that everyone is worried about the resurgence of "sky-high pork".

As for the pork price in the future, I personally think that the pork price can go up, but the rate of increase is limited. There is almost no probability that a catty of pork will be 26, 7 yuan or even 31 yuan in the first two years.

There are three reasons:

First, the current number of live pigs is at a normal level, and there is no basis for a sharp increase in the short term.

The data at the end of May showed that the number of live pigs in China was 415 million, down 1.2% from the end of April and 7.5% from the same period last year.

At present, the pig price has entered a profitable stage, and the pig production capacity will gradually pick up, which still has an impact on the pig price.

Second, the regulatory factors of the relevant departments. The relevant state departments have collected and stored a large amount of pork in the first half of the year. In addition, the pork and pork offal imported in the first half of the year will be put on the market in time to stabilize the pork price if the prices of pigs and meat continue to rise sharply.

Third, there is no special event factor. As we all know, since 2119, the price of pigs has risen sharply and the price of pork has soared. The main event factor is that since the first case of African swine fever appeared in Shenyang in August 2118, the production capacity of pigs has dropped sharply, and there have been expensive pigs and pork. If similar situations do not occur again, the price of pork will not rise so dramatically.

On the whole, from the perspective of the pig cycle, the price of live pigs or pork will fluctuate upward in the second half of the year, but considering the above three factors, this increase should be moderate. Personally, it is still possible for the pig price to reach 11 yuan and 12 yuan a catty at the end of the year, and the pork price will stabilize below 21 yuan/catty, with the probability of more than 21 yuan or even 31 yuan almost nonexistent.

Dear friends, how much is your pork now? Will pork break through 21 yuan/Jin in the second half of the year? Welcome to express your views for your reference.

(Text/Agriculture, Countryside and Agriculture)