no. This wave of liquor stock market decline will make many people who are involved in the liquor industry panic, but what is the specific future trend? I will share some analysis of the industry gods for you to see, and I believe you will have a deeper understanding.

Dynasty Chengqiu Sugar made the latest forecast on the development trend of liquor industry

The A-share liquor sector plummeted due to various "rumors", so the next trend of liquor industry naturally attracted much attention.

In his speech, Wang Chaocheng first analyzed the causes of pessimism in the industry, and compared the driving logic of this round of "recovery" with the driving factors of adjustment in 2112, and drew three predictions: high-end growth will slow down, but retrogression is a serious exaggeration; The sub-high-end and mid-high-end will still show an upgrading growth, but the competition differentiation will intensify; Low-end upgrades continue, and there is still room for price increases.

The following are some discussions of Mr. Wang organized by the team of Weijiu:

Talking about pessimism and reasons

I didn't want to talk about trends at first, because the trends were all discussed in Spring Sugar this year, and now the situation is similar to what we expected. However, because the situation has gone from bad to worse in the past two days, an adjustment has been made temporarily. I think many people are concerned about whether something big has happened in the wine industry.

in the spring, I told you that there would be no big increase in high-end wine, but many people didn't believe me. Because the stock price of Maotai hit a new high in June, many people still thought that the market was excellent, so many people bought it crazily at that time.

from yesterday to today, the alcohol sector continued to decline. I think what is more behind the decline is that there is a very big "irrational sentiment" in the capital market. And some people also think that the current situation of the wine industry is very bad. I think this is an abnormal understanding of the industry. So today I'm going to make an analysis from the logic of industry.

At present, there are three main reasons for being pessimistic about the industry and the future:

The first is macroeconomics. It is a fact that the cyclical changes of macro-economy in our country are more intense than those in other countries. I think judging the trend of macro-economy depends on two points: one is whether the domestic economy can be sustained, and the other is whether there is great "uncertainty" in the external environment.

in this regard, my understanding is that this matter will not change much in the short term.

First, the export of foreign trade will not get out of control very, very seriously, because the United States has already added more than 211 billion yuan, and there will be another 261 billion yuan next year. It is estimated that all of them will be added in the end, and even in the most extreme case, the foreign trade with the United States will be completely gone at most; But even if all of them are gone, the impact on China's GDP will not exceed 1%. Moreover, there is a very important favorable factor. Our currency is depreciating, from 6.6 to 6.9, and I estimate that the losses in foreign trade will be digested.

secondly, whether the external environment has any influence on the wine industry? When the global economy plunged in 2118, we didn't have any exports of wine. If you were the red side and black side of Britain, if you were Martini and Chivas Regal, the high-end wine of France and the high-end wine of France, the influence was quite great. Therefore, we can see that the data of automobiles and LV dropped in the third quarter, but the data of FMCG did not drop, but only dropped a little in the growth rate.

For the macro economy, to sum up, the domestic economy will not be too good, and the situation abroad will not be too bad. The reduction of fees and taxes of China enterprises will "hedge" these unfavorable factors. Generally speaking, it can also curb major problems in the national economy.

Buffett once said when investing in the United States that "every time the American economy adjusts, many people are bearish on the United States, but practice has proved that it is wrong to be bearish on the United States every time". So now many people are also "bearish" on China, especially the elite are very insecure, so the country is constantly sending information to the market to support the development of the private economy. I guess the bosses have also seen the voices of the people and responded quickly; Therefore, I think the macroeconomic impact is overestimated, especially wine, which has nothing to do with macroeconomics.

the second concern is the tax policy. I can say that there is a very important change, which will be hedged next year, that is, the ratio of fees and taxes of enterprises in China will decrease, which is relatively certain. Because Liu He, Vice Premier of the People's Republic of China made it very clear that the social security fee will be lowered.

Another thing that everyone is worried about is the consumption tax on liquor. Some time ago, it was said that the consumption tax on liquor would be raised. I can definitely tell you that our judgment is that it will not be raised, and the consumption tax will be "deferred". All provincial tax bureaus have sent notices to all wineries about the postponement of consumption tax. Because we paid too much tax before. Therefore, it leads to a problem. At present, the total consumption tax is too large. In fact, the postponement of consumption tax means that at worst, there will be no tax increase, and there may be a tax reduction at best. For example, what the industry is promoting now is structural tax reduction, that is, low-grade liquor should not be taxed. You said that I should pay taxes when I drink 21 yuan of light bottle wine, which is unreasonable. You can pay taxes if you drink too much, but 21% is not much, which is quite cheap.

thirdly, in terms of strengthening the supervision and management of tobacco and alcohol in the country. I think that the health law of the draft basic medical care and health promotion law emphasizes more on prohibiting the sale to minors; In fact, this cigarette has been made for many years, and it is clearly stipulated that it is not allowed to be sold to minors, but it is difficult to implement it in practice; In addition, minors used to drink very little, and people over the age of 25 and 28 used to drink liquor, and people under the age of 21 basically didn't drink it, so even if supervision was strengthened, it would have no impact on the industry.

12

The logic of supply and demand is completely different from that of 2112

In the negative mood, another reason is the cognitive deviation of supply and demand. Last night, many brokers made clarifications, but I think the most important underlying logic should be made clear.

We believe that we must make clear the driving factors of this round of "recovery" and the adjustment factors in 2112. How did it grow before 2112, how did it fall later, and how did this round come up? Will it fall?

If you think clearly about the main logic behind it, everyone will think clearly about whether the story of 2112 will be repeated this time. If we don't repeat the story of 2112, most of our wine stocks have been adjusted by 41% now, and the probability of further adjustment is not great. If the logic is the same as that in 2112, I'm sorry, there will be very big adjustments.

so what is the basic motivation of each round of wine industry adjustment? The core logic of the great development of China liquor industry in 2112 is two logics:

The first logic is that the whole capacity was expanded in the early stage, and the quantity and price rose together. After 2113, the catering industry in China entered a great development, and more and more rural people flocked to cities to promote urbanization in China. In rural areas, a person will not drink when eating at home; But when I work in the city, I have friends, and this kind of social occasions will increase, which will greatly expand the consumption scene of wine.

so, from 2113 to 2118, the growth trend of catering data and wine data is matched, and the annual growth rate is almost the same, which is a very obvious expansion. This increase in consumption occasions has greatly increased the alcohol intake of China people. Therefore, from 2113 to 2118, the main driving factors of China liquor were income growth, urbanization and the increase of consumption scenes.

the growth from p>18 to 2112 was actually brought about by the "three public consumption", and it was the "official consumption" of government affairs and business that promoted the rapid upgrade of prices. Because "grade" is necessary for government consumption, you have to look at the face when entertaining government personnel, so our company has continuously increased the grade, so group buying marketing reached its peak at that time. This is the first logic, the volume and price have risen together, and the whole plate has become bigger.

the second logic is the increasing inventory. By 2112, you found that the inventory of all famous wine enterprises in China was high, and the inventory of dealers was alarmingly high. I said in Fuzhou Sugar and Liquor Association and Wuhan Sugar and Liquor Association that the wine industry should be greatly adjusted. The fundamental factors are: one is the price of Maotai, and the other is inventory; If the inventory is large and the price bubble is relatively large, these two factors will definitely "clear out" when they are superimposed together. Once you "clear out", you will be finished, and there is no way to save it.

Therefore, after 2112, the "three public consumption" was restricted, and more than 51% of high-grade wines were used for the "three public consumption". The state suddenly issued a notice not to drink, which led to a drop in the price of high-grade wines and a clear inventory, which triggered a very intense and rapid adjustment, and this adjustment was a great blow to the confidence of the whole industry. This is the big logic of the adjustment in 2112, and the "bottom logic" is this. Of course, there are also various factors.

why do I keep talking about "revival" instead of revival? I have always thought that this round of growth is structural growth, but the growth in quantity is not great. Therefore, if the equivalent does not increase, the price is driving this round of growth. You say this is a strong growth, but in fact it is a recovery. It is not particularly strong. It is the excellent performance of a few enterprises that covers up the weak recovery of the whole industry. The nature of this round is such a nature that it does not show such excitement. However, because a few companies are awesome, they are excited.

So this round of recovery is driven by two factors: the first one is the upgrading of consumption, that is, selling more expensive. In fact, in 2112 and 2113, the consumption upgrade continued, and it was not said that consumers bought wine cheaper in 2112, no. Only buying Maotai is cheaper, but Maotai has nothing to do with the factory price, which is caused by the quantity of supply and demand.

In fact, the performance of most local wines has not been adjusted, because they benefited from the consumption upgrade. You open the data of local wine enterprises from 2112 to 2114, and only Maotai has changed.

the first driving force of this round of development is consumption upgrading, especially the second high-end and second high-end consumption upgrading is very obvious, and this logic has not changed at all. It turns out that Jiangsu Tianzhilan is very powerful, but now the dream series is very powerful and the national relationship is very powerful. This is the promotion of consumption upgrading. Therefore, the development momentum driven by this wave of upgrades will not change because everyone is worried about high-end wine stocks today.

the second driving force is centralization. This is completely different from the last round. The last round was an increase in volume and price. In fact, this round of volume has not been expanded, and it has begun to take the road of centralization. A few enterprises have robbed others of their volume and then sold it more expensive. Some enterprises have developed very well, but many enterprises have not developed well. Centralization will actually make enterprises enjoy the "superposition effect", such as Maotai and Wuliangye, including local leading wine enterprises.

It can be seen that the logic of this round is not quite the same as that of the last round, so is it the same to call back? It's not the same.

The first is that the current inventory has not risen. Now, even if the price of Maotai does not drop, let's see why the current inventory of Maotai is not much. Many of you are worried that the society will invest in those stocks, and whether that inventory will be released depends on whether your price collapses or not. If the price collapses, the inventory will be released, and if the price does not collapse, it will not; Looking at it now, the stock of Maotai is safe. Because people basically didn't lose money when they bought it back. However, there is no increase in Maotai in the past two years, at least until 2121, so it will not cause a sharp decline in prices. Moreover, those who buy Maotai are not forced to "clear out" like real estate speculators, and he has no such pressure to clear out.

therefore, the price of maotai will drop by about 51 yuan after the mid-autumn festival in previous years, but the price of maotai has not dropped this year, because the inventory of maotai dealers has not increased. So this is very different from 2112, when the inventory was very large.

the second is on the demand side. In the last round, the "three public consumption" was suddenly killed. When the demand is small, you have to change gears. It takes three or four years to lower the price, let the business consumption catch up, and slowly put the consumption next. This is the truth.

but there was no sudden decline in demand in this round. You said that the macro economy is not good and the foreign trade is uncertain. These things have an impact on the lifestyle of the rich, but they are not that big. That's only a relatively potential long-term impact, and it has little impact on the short term.

Do you think many small entrepreneurs will switch from drinking Maotai to drinking 111 yuan this year because Trump added tax to the remaining 261 billion yuan last year? I don't think that's possible. The round of adjustment in 2112 was completely different. After the "one paper" ban went down, all officials were afraid to drink. These two rounds of changes are completely different logics.

You must know that this round of demand has not disappeared in a cliff-like way; Moreover, business consumption, including folk consumption, which is a natural consumption, has basically succeeded after five or six years of shifting gears. At this time, there was no sudden loss of plates on the demand side and no large inventory rise on the supply side. So what reason is there to worry that Maotai will repeat the situation in 2112? I won't. So I watched this plunge yesterday. Don't think it's the same as the last round, and the story is completely different. The reason for this wave is different from that of the last one, and there is no reason for this wave to fall.

I think so. I think everyone's underlying logic must be clarified. There are also brokerage researchers who talk about the decline in advance receipts. This is a very important reason because various manufacturers have adjusted their methods. Before 2112, everyone had to catch up with the target, and every family consciously increased the advance payment. Now, for example, Yanghe does not engage in advance payment, and you want a quota. I will give you a quota by the Mid-Autumn Festival, and that's all. How can there be advance payment? Maotai is also adjusting now, and he doesn't pay much attention to this advance payment. This advance payment is not a market-oriented behavior and is not the norm.

Why is the advance payment before p>15 high? It is because the market demand is not good and prosperous. We are worried that the performance will not be completed when we switch gears from government consumption. Only when we need advance payment to ensure the completion of the task can the bosses rest assured.

Now that the situation has changed, he can complete the task without advance payment. Why do you want to do this? Therefore, this kind of advance payment is the adjustment of business policy and management mode, and it is not entirely the fact that the decline of advance payment means that consumption is not prosperous and profits are falling. This logic is not so conductive. That transmission view is what you see from the figures, and there is a reason for it from the real reasons of the enterprise.

However, some brokerage researchers said that the growth rate of high-end wine should have been rational. For example, Maotai rose by more than 41% last year. Do you think a company that sells tens of billions a year will grow by 41% and 51% a year? Have you ever seen such a company in the world that can continue? Human history has never existed, unless you are Ali and Tencent, it is impossible. Ali and Tencent are not possible now. So this is completely an emotion. The volume has not increased so much, how can there be a 51% profit growth? That 51% profit growth is an abnormal financial practice, and everyone has to be the norm, so this is completely emotional.

Why do you spend so much energy talking about Maotai and high-end liquor? Because it represents the mood of the whole wine market, we must make it clear.

13

Three judgments about the wine industry

Then, what will be the trends of high-end wine, sub-high-end wine and high-end wine?

The high-end will slow down-

Maotai will grow again next year, and everyone's growth rate will be slower. Wuliangye is taking measures, such as replacing old packaging with new packaging, which will make Wuliangye's old packaging inventory clear and the price may be reshaped. This is the advantage of Wuliangye.

Guojiao, Maotai and Wuliangye have learned one thing.