Although the feed price has been adjusted back recently with the decline of soybean meal and corn prices, farmers are still unhappy because the pig price is low and farmers are still losing money.
Calculate the time, the pig price has been falling for four or five months since late June last year 10. Although the callback was ushered in at the end of February, it still failed to break through the cost line.
As we all know, there are two main reasons for the low price of pigs:
First, the supply is still high.
In the third quarter of last year, the pig market had a high bullish sentiment for the follow-up, so the pressure on fencing and secondary fattening increased significantly, but the demand weakened in the fourth quarter, resulting in a large number of fat pigs being put out of the market, which caused great supply pressure.
Even this year, from the current point of view, the average weight of live pigs is still above 120kg, which means that the surplus supply is still not exhausted.
The other is that demand continues to be sluggish.
Although regulatory policies have been adjusted and market consumption has been liberalized, downstream consumption has not experienced the expected surge. On the contrary, the catering industry has received limited boost due to serious damage. At present, the price of pork in the market has dropped to more than ten yuan, which is cheaper than 10 yuan, but even so, the consumption is still low.
So the "inflection point" of the pig price seems to be stuck in the demand, but when everyone is concerned about when the demand will pick up, the supply side is constantly "doing things".
First, the price of pigs is low, but large enterprises are still accelerating their slaughter.
The February sales briefing issued by a number of listed pig enterprises shows that although the average selling price is decreasing, the amount of pigs slaughtered is still increasing.
For example, from June, 5438 to February this year, the number of pigs slaughtered in Mu Yuan was 8.844 million, almost equivalent to the sum of the slaughter of other pig enterprises, and the slaughter of other head enterprises also showed an upward trend.
On the one hand, pig enterprises pay more attention to market share, so the rise and fall of pig prices is not the basis for pig enterprises to decide how much to sell; On the other hand, the improvement of sow farrowing in the early stage also increased the slaughter.
In addition, in the past two years, the pig market has fluctuated greatly, the industry reshuffle has accelerated, and large-scale pig enterprises have expanded rapidly, so the overall slaughter volume has shown an increasing trend.
Second, the supply pressure in the live pig market is also rising recently.
Since May last year, the number of fertile sows has increased, which means that the supply pressure of live pigs has increased since March. Coupled with the increase of the proportion of binary pigs and the improvement of production performance, the supply is also on the rise.
In addition, the end of March is also the stage of centralized slaughter of large enterprises. Coupled with the continuous decline in pig prices, some small and medium-sized farmers are short of funds, and swine fever has begun to rise in some areas, which has also improved the enthusiasm of small and medium-sized retail investors and promoted the increase of supply.
Third, on the whole, there are still a lot of cheaters this year.
For example, this year, all large enterprises have raised their slaughter targets, among which the slaughter targets in Mu Yuan have reached 70-80 million, and both Wen's and New Hope have reached 26 million, 654.38+085 million. Under such huge supply pressure, demand will also feel great pressure.
With the continuous decline of pig prices in March, the bullish sentiment accumulated in February is gradually dissipating. Then, in April, can the long-awaited recovery of the market be realized?
Looking back, the probability of pig price rising in April is not low, and the trend this year is very similar to last year, so the bullish expectation in April is getting higher and higher.
However, with the change of supply and demand in the live pig market in March, many people began to worry that the previous hurdle pressing and secondary fattening would interfere with the trend. Not only is the demand difficult, but the supply side is also constantly "doing things", which weakens the bullish expectations in April.
Even some institutions tend to think that pig prices are difficult to rise before the third quarter.
From the perspective of new farmers, the difference between supply and demand in the live pig market has indeed been obviously repaired in the short term, and the pig price will continue to fluctuate with great probability. However, the second quarter will not be too bad, and there may be staged repairs, but the recovery speed is relatively moderate and does not have the overall upward momentum.