Indonesia indicated that it would impose temporary license restrictions on palm oil export, limiting the total export volume to 1/3, that is, reducing by about 4 million tons. This policy will last until May 23rd.

As the world's largest exporter of vegetable oil, Indonesia's annual output of palm oil was about 45.5 million tons by 2002/kloc-0, and its export volume was about 28 million tons, accounting for about 60% of the global market. Europe, India and China are its main export targets.

It is not the first time that Indonesia has restricted oil exports. A similar market was staged last year.

In April last year, Indonesia suddenly announced the start of the export ban on edible oil and palm oil products.

This caused an uproar in the market at that time, and the global palm oil price soared rapidly.

At the peak, the arrival cost of Malaysian exports to China is as high as 13000 yuan/ton.

However, the good times did not last long, and this policy came to an end in less than a month. The reason is that after the export ban was promulgated, domestic demand could not consume huge palm fruit production, and a large number of fresh palm fruits could only rot, and the price plummeted, causing serious losses to farmers' interests, which triggered strong protests from growers.

However, although the policy was loosened later, it was actually loose before and tight after, which still led to the global palm oil price rising again and the global oil price hitting a new high.

On June 5438+ 10 this year, Indonesia once again introduced a new policy, which adjusted the "domestic market obligation" of domestic palm oil from 1: 8 to 1: 6, that is, for every ton of palm oil sold in China, the seller can get 6 tons of exports.

Its purpose is to restrict sellers' exports, or to give consideration to domestic supply at the same time.

However, with the soaring oil price caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Indonesia has also vigorously promoted the biodiesel policy in order to stabilize the high oil price, which has also increased domestic consumption, and the domestic edible oil price remains high.

Traditional Islamic festivals are coming. In order to meet the domestic demand, Indonesia had to issue this export restriction law recently.

It can be seen that in just one year, Indonesia's edible oil policy has changed many times. Why is it always changing?

In fact, Indonesia also has difficulties, that is, domestic demand and export demand have never been balanced.

On the one hand, palm oil export is an important source of Indonesia's export trade income, accounting for the second place in Indonesia's total export trade income.

On the other hand, its domestic consumption of palm oil is also very large, especially since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the price of crude oil has soared, which has greatly increased the demand for biodiesel. Coupled with the concentration of demand such as Eid al-Fitr, Indonesia often wanders back and forth between the two.

As a result, the policy is changeable and close to the demon.

So with the liberalization of export restrictions, what impact will it have on the market?

Probably everyone is well aware of Indonesia's "dilemma", so the impact of this law is relatively limited.

Some institutions even believe that the new policy may end ahead of schedule, because with the export restrictions, Indonesia's domestic inventory will soon reach a very high level, so we can only adjust the policy again and resume exports.

On the other hand, although it has a certain disturbing effect on the global oil market in the short term, it is unlikely that the global vegetable oil price will fluctuate again.

First, the global oil market is recovering.

Last year, the supply of the four major vegetable oils was tight, which made the market fluctuate greatly.

However, the supply of soybean oil and rapeseed oil has gradually eased this year, and the market pressure has dropped significantly.

Second, the major demand countries have abundant stocks and weak demand.

India is a big oil importer in the world. After two years of accumulation, its inventory has been restored. The market expects that Indian demand will fall back in the later period, and palm oil and soybean oil imports may be greatly reduced.

On the other hand, China's palm oil stocks have also increased significantly, reaching the second highest level in recent five years.

In addition, soybean imports were concentrated in Hong Kong in the second quarter, and the supply was abundant.

Therefore, the overall impact of Indonesia's New Deal is limited.