New coronavirus infection of pneumonia epidemic under the influence of the offline business encountered obvious challenges.
The reporter recently learned that the impact of the real estate industry, Jiangxi, Anhui and other industry associations, chambers of commerce have recently reflected the difficult situation to the relevant departments, and put forward countermeasures.
In fact, in the course of the national fight against the epidemic, many real estate companies generously donate money and goods, and at the same time, with the suspension of project construction, suspension of the project to start, the closure of the sales office and other initiatives to the real estate industry has brought a huge impact.
Recently, Wuxi, Shanghai, Xi'an, Zhejiang and other provinces or cities have also introduced some of the support policies, or to adjust the land price payment methods and deadlines, or to optimize the approval service, adjust the performance supervision, to comprehensively reduce the pressure of enterprise funds.
Industry associations advised to support enterprises
Under the epidemic, many real estate companies have supported the infected areas with donations and materials. At the same time, the real estate industry is facing unprecedented pressure as most provinces and cities across the country have taken measures such as closing down sales offices, halting construction sites and shutting down real estate agents.
"With the closure of Wuhan, the province's real estate companies closed their sales offices almost overnight, sales activities have completely stopped, basically no money back, the pressure on corporate funds is enormous, the resumption of work and sustained operation is difficult to sustain, the bank's debt service is a huge burden." February 12, Jiangxi Province Real Estate Association to the Jiangxi Provincial Federation of Industry and Commerce to submit "on the epidemic after the real estate enterprises to support policy proposals", confided in the real estate industry encountered problems, and requested the provincial and municipal governments to give certain policy support to help enterprises tide over the difficulties.
The above proposal mentioned that the current real estate industry anxiety million, real estate is capital-intensive industry, involving the rise and fall of more than 60 upstream and downstream industries, it is recommended to accelerate the house check, net signing and net preparation work, stage relaxation of pre-sale, appropriate relaxation of the purchase restrictions, increase the incentives for talents to settle down, and appropriately relax the price of the filing restrictions.
No coincidence, before this, the Anhui Provincial Real Estate Chamber of Commerce submitted to the Hefei Municipal Government "on the epidemic after the real estate enterprises to support the policy proposals" (Anhui Housing Business 202003), to reflect to the municipal government of the real estate industry encountered difficulties.
The two proposals are the same, both covering the relaxation of the purchase limit and price limit policy, the stage of relaxation of pre-sale, real estate enterprises can force majeure to delay the delivery of housing, etc. Anhui even proposed to reduce the proportion of the down payment of the mortgage as well as interest rate cuts.
The impact of the epidemic, the closure of sales offices around the world, the capital chain of tight real estate enterprises, is like adding to the frost. Although a number of real estate companies have turned to online marketing, home buyers can not see the house on the ground, the purchase plan is mostly on hold.
"Online sales are still no way to compare with the traditional sales office, the effect is not good." A real estate marketing staff told reporters that the current online housing is just an online viewing platform for home buyers and demand side online browsing, online sales model is difficult to replace the traditional sales office, to facilitate the transaction, customers still have to go to the field to see the model room, before they will buy a home.
"The main impact of the epidemic on the real estate industry is reflected in the market returns and development investment. As the real estate transaction involves the field to see the house, choose the house and other links, and the epidemic during the residents can not leave their homes, so that the property market transaction is difficult to trigger, the transaction is very low, the real estate enterprises basically face a greater pressure on the operation of the funds. Looking backwards, the capital pressure makes it difficult for real estate enterprises to cope with all aspects of the expenditure, right now the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises has been reduced, which will to a certain extent constrain the growth of the first quarter of this year in terms of real estate development and investment." Zhuge looking for housing market researcher Jiang Guojun said in an interview with reporters.
According to the research of Yihan Think Tank, in the first half of 2020, enterprises must deliver projects accounted for 30% to 50% of the total number of projects delivered throughout the year. Due to the suspension of project construction, the closure of offline sales channels, corporate sales returns have fallen sharply, superimposed on the existing real estate financing policies, real estate enterprises generally tight capital chain, facing enormous cash flow pressure, even large enterprises are not immune. In the research of 72 enterprises, 46 real estate enterprises (mainly small and medium-sized enterprises) affected by the value of more than 440 billion yuan, the operating cost of about 23.5 billion yuan in a single month, nearly 530 billion yuan of debt due in the first half of 2020; 26 industry chain enterprises, affected by the stoppage of the sale of the backlog of inventory of more than 4 billion yuan, the operating cost of more than 2 billion yuan in a single month, the first half of 2020 due to the debt of about 5.5 billion yuan.
Multiple places introduced housing-related support policies
"Epidemic prevention and control period, the new land can in principle be determined by the starting price of 20% of the bidding deposit, the transfer contract is signed within one month of the payment of 50% of the land transfer price, the land unit issued a letter of commitment, the remaining balance can be contractually agreed upon Payment will be made in installments, and the maximum payment period will not exceed one year." On February 12, the Xi'an Natural Resources and Planning Bureau on the implementation of the "Xi'an Municipal Government on Effective Response to the Epidemic to Promote the Stable Development of the Economy a number of measures" notice, from the adjustment of the public land transfer mode, payment of the land transfer price in installments, and tolerance of the relevant planning permission procedures to reduce the burden on the enterprise.
On the same day, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Nanchang and other provinces or cities introduced financial support policies during the epidemic, or adjust the way and period of land price payment, or optimize the approval service, adjust the performance supervision, will comprehensively reduce the pressure on the enterprise funds.
On February 12, the city of Wuxi released "Policies and Opinions on Responding to the Pneumonia Epidemic Infected by a New Coronavirus to Guarantee the Orderly Construction of Urban and Rural Areas," which is a more supportive and comprehensive policy in the process of resumption of construction across the country at present.
The support policy includes real estate development enterprises, construction enterprises, housing intermediary enterprises, housing rental enterprises affected by the epidemic to handle the difficulties of tax declaration, applied for by the enterprise, according to the law to handle the extension of the declaration. There are special difficulties and can not pay taxes on schedule, by the enterprise application, according to law to handle the extension of payment of taxes, the longest not more than 3 months; has received a construction permit within the scope of the building, due to the epidemic affecting the construction of the application for pre-sale of the original image of the progress of the requirements are adjusted to the amount of investment, pre-sale part of the completion of more than 25% of the investment can be (assembled building of the image of the progress of the requirements remain unchanged). Each batch of application for sales scale in principle, high-rise commercial housing not less than 20,000 square meters, multi-story commercial housing not less than 10,000 square meters and so on.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute Think Tank Center, believes that the policies introduced around the world, objectively reduce the cost of land for real estate enterprises, for real estate enterprises to maintain the ability to get land in the near future, effectively through the special period of time has a positive effect, help real estate enterprises out of the property market recession, in order to better complete the year's project investment and sales targets.
"City-specific policy" is still the main tone
"At the beginning of the year, we predicted that in 2020, the national commercial real estate sales area fell by 5.0% to 6.5% year-on-year, and due to the market impact caused by this outbreak, it is estimated that year-on-year decline to continue downward by about 2%. In terms of absolute volume there will be a reduction of 30 million to 35 million square meters, which is equivalent to reducing the total market volume in Wuhan by one." Huang Yu, CEO of China Index Holdings and executive vice president of China Index Research Institute, said that this is a preliminary prediction of the entire market. In terms of the performance of the whole year, the first half of the relative pressure, the second half of the year with the control of expectations and the recovery of market confidence, there will be a relatively good performance. On balance, considering the important role of real estate investment in stabilizing the economy, the impact of the epidemic on the property market is limited.
Jiang Guojun believes that the demand for home purchases during the epidemic was suppressed, and it is expected that the end of the epidemic will usher in a small peak of the release of the relevant claims in a concentrated manner, and a phased recovery of the property market is still expected. However, from a comprehensive point of view, on the one hand, part of the residents subject to the epidemic during the income has been reduced, when the purchase of homes will become more rational; on the other hand, housing enterprises to accelerate the return of money, the margin of concessions or will be increased, housing prices will not be due to the market phased recovery and a substantial increase. For the 2020 real estate market, the transaction is expected to be a short-term setback after a moderate growth, and then will gradually return to normal, prices are expected to run smoothly development trend.
From the Jiangxi and Anhui industry associations to the recommendations of a number of provinces and municipalities have launched various types of housing support policies, the market is talking about the direction of the policy.
Yan Yuejin believes that the recommendation of the Jiangxi Real Estate Association mentioned the relaxation of the purchase restriction policy, the current epidemic from the market point of view, the possibility of being adopted or higher.
Jiang Guojun said, the Jiangxi Provincial Real Estate Association submitted the relevant recommendations mentioned the real estate industry, enterprises, the market to give support, the proposal itself has a number of desirable features, but the relaxation of restrictions on the purchase of the direction of the control of the discrepancy between the proposal alone, it is expected that the decision-making level will hold a very cautious attitude. From the epidemic during the policies issued by a number of cities, mainly in support of the industry and enterprises to tide over the difficulties, to maintain stable growth and orderly operation of the industry, and there is no sign of loosening of the regulation of the property market, the relevant safeguards for the extraordinary period of time is still based on the premise of "housing without speculation". Obviously, all over the world will not because of the epidemic and give up the previous control results, the purchase restriction policy will still be continued.
Yang Chang, a senior economist at Zhongtai Securities, believes that there is some short-term disturbance to real estate sales and construction, but it will be quickly repaired after the epidemic. As most of the provinces and cities in the first half of the year may have a shortfall in revenue and expenditure, the government fund revenue is an important way to make up for the shortfall in revenue and expenditure, the local government on the basis of city-specific policies, there is the possibility of marginal relaxation.
Huang Yu, however, believes that "city-specific policies" will remain the main tone of industry regulation and control, industry regulation and control after the current round of outbreaks, especially the key epidemic area policy or flexible adjustments, but will not conflict with the central level of "housing without speculation" positioning. In order to protect the vitality of economic development, the monetary and financial environment will be relatively loose. In addition, under the epidemic, in terms of taxation, social security and other aspects of fiscal policy has also released a positive signal. In the context of relatively positive financial and fiscal policies, the real estate market will also benefit to a certain extent. Debt issuance in the epidemic is facing certain opportunities, the central bank has also issued a document to improve the efficiency of the approval process, real estate companies can actively pay attention to, and take corresponding action to grasp the financing opportunities.