Preliminary study on Chengdu subway line planning and property development I. General situation of Chengdu subway

As early as 1992, Chengdu has started the rail transit project, set up the subway construction leading group and its office, and started the planning of urban rail transit and related technical preparations. However, due to the tightening of national macroeconomic policies, subway construction projects are strictly controlled by the state. Although the feasibility study report of the first phase of the subway project has passed the evaluation and review, the subway project has not been approved by the state. Since 2004, the national macro-economic policy on subway project construction has been loosened, and Chengdu has once again submitted the subway project construction planning and feasibility study report. In 2005, the first phase of Line 1 1 was officially approved by the National Development and Reform Commission. 65438+On February 28th, the first phase project of Metro 1 Line officially started in Tianhui Road, High-tech Zone. Chengdu will also become another city with subway after Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Nanjing.

According to the latest planning of Chengdu, Chengdu will form a new urban pattern of "one master and seven guards", namely 1 main urban area and seven satellite cities such as Shuangliu, Longquan, Xindu, Pixian and Wenjiang. The original single-center development model has gradually evolved into a fan-shaped multi-center pattern. In order to cooperate with Chengdu's new planning and urban integration process and solve the problems of population expansion, environment and urban traffic bottleneck, the construction of subway is a matter of course. It is estimated that the total planned mileage of rail transit construction in Chengdu will reach 493.3 kilometers in the next 30 years, including new subway 128 kilometers and light rail1810.8 kilometers. The planned investment of the seven tracks will reach100 billion. Among them, Line 1 and Line 2 will be officially opened in 10, and the specific scheme is as follows:

★ 1 Line starts from Dafeng Town, Honghuayan, North Railway Station, Renmin North Road, Wu Wen Road, Rome, Tianfu Square, Jinjiang Hotel, Zhu Xiaotian Scenic Area, Provincial Gymnasium, Nijiaqiao, Tongzilin, South Railway Station, South Third Ring Road, Zhou Xinyi and Hi-tech Zone Incubation Park, and ends at the new convention and exhibition center in the south;

★ Line 2 starts from Pitong Town, Laochengguan Road, Third Ring Road, Yangxi Line, University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shudu Avenue, Tianfu Square and Dongjie Street in the west and ends in Longquan Town in the east;

★ The starting point of Line 3 is Xindu, heading southwest and finally reaching Shuangliu;

★ Line 4 runs east-west, starting from Shiling and ending at Wenjiang;

★ The starting point of Line 5 is near the tofu weir of the North Railway Station. Go west for a while and you will reach Huayang in the south.

★ The planning starting point of Line 6 is located near the Northwest Bridge of the First Ring Road, and it is divided into two branches after leaving the Third Ring Road in the south, reaching Shuangliu Airport and Huayang respectively;

★ Line 7 is planned to be circular, starting near the north extension line of Shawan in the Third Ring Road and ending at Longtan.

Chengdu subway planning and property distribution map along the line

The newly adjusted 7 subway lines will form a radioactive road network, which runs through 3 168 square kilometers in Chengdu. Among them, the "cross" formed by Line 65 and Line 438+0 and Line 2 has been set according to the existing urban pattern. According to the current situation of people flow and traffic flow in cities, the traffic problems that run through the east-west and north-south arteries of cities are mainly solved, which has little influence on the urban pattern, and metro lines 3 and 2 have little influence on the urban pattern. Connect the central city with six peripheral groups, namely Xindu-Qingbaijiang Group, Tantong Group, Dongsheng Group, Shuangliu Group, Longquan Group and Wenjiang Group. The city will also evolve from the original single-center circle development model to a multi-center group structure, and the development of different regions of the city will gradually tend to be balanced.

Second, the macro impact of the subway on the real estate market

1, Impact of Chengdu Metro on Real Estate Industry

The formation of the subway not only greatly shortens the time distance between the two places, but also usually gathers the surrounding passenger flow and business flow at the subway entrance. Each subway station can form a funnel effect relative to the surrounding area, and the passenger flow and business flow radiate around the funnel entrance. The subway will enhance the property value along and at both ends, affect the residential, commercial and office properties on both sides, change the urban pattern and promote the formation of a new urban economic zone.

1) on the commercial market

In recent years, the commercial real estate in Chengdu has been sluggish in both the early stage of sales and the late stage of operation, and the whole market is weak. The appearance of the subway will undoubtedly revitalize the depressed businesses along the line, and the entire commercial real estate market in Chengdu will be reshuffled, which is also the inevitable law of the economic development of subways in other cities at home and abroad.

First, the impact on business model

The current commercial pattern in Chengdu is basically based on the original traffic pattern. Many businesses are concentrated in business districts with large traffic, such as Chunxi Road and Yanshikou in Rome. The subway has a strong gathering function for people's popularity, and it can also quickly divert people. This change in the direction of people flow will greatly change the pattern of the whole business circle, and the whole business center will change again.

Judging from the current layout of Chengdu 1 and Line 2, the north-south direction and the east-west direction are the same coordinate. In particular, Line 1 is the main axis of the urban area, and the 18 subway entrance and exit along the line has a great influence on several major business districts that have been formed at present. In addition, the stations will also form secondary and tertiary business districts of different scales. IT is estimated that the Lotus Pond Business Circle, Rome Business Circle, Tianfu Square Business Circle, Skydiving Tower IT Business Circle, South Sub-center Belt and Huayang Business Circle will be formed along the 1 line. Around the entrance and exit of Line 2, small commercial streets such as Dongjie-Chunxi Road Commercial Circle, Tianfu Square Commercial Belt and Yangxi Line Catering Commercial Street will be formed around the subway entrance and exit. In a word, the future business pattern of Chengdu will present a big cross business circle around the entrance and exit of subway lines.

First of all, due to the demolition of Dai Yu Bridge and the restoration of two-way traffic on Renmin Middle Road, the business circle in Rome has increased passenger flow and brought huge business opportunities. Due to its proximity to Metro 1 and Line 2, the appreciation potential of commercial properties in this area is promising. According to statistics, the volume of newly developed commercial property projects in the next two years is about 600,000 square meters, mainly around Qinglong Street, Babao Street, West Street and Shuncheng Street. Secondly, because the 1 line leaves the station at the North Railway Station, it will greatly improve the traffic problem in the Hehuachi business district, and the Hehuachi business district will also be one of the biggest beneficiaries; Thirdly, Tianfu Square business circle, located at the transportation hub of 1 and Line 2, will be icing on the cake, bringing a steady stream of people around Yanshikou; Finally, the IT business circle of the skydiving tower will also benefit, especially the rent and price of the nearby Shi Zhuang Center and @ World Store will also be greatly increased. Recently, due to the good news of the subway, the price of Shi Zhuang Central Store has increased by 65,438+00%. In addition, as the subway arrives at Zhou Xinyi Station, a brand-new big business circle will be formed in the South Sub-center. In the future, the subway will extend to Huayang, and a commercial economic belt will also be formed around the entrance and exit.

East-west Line 2 will also form two or three business districts of different scales along the line. In addition to the well-developed Chunxi Road and Tianfu Square business districts, the Yangxi Line catering business district will be further strengthened due to the construction of the subway, and the two sides of Shudu Avenue, the East Street business district and the central belt affiliated to the east of the city will also be more mature due to the smooth subway.

In other routes, because its main function is to guide the group development of the city and connect the central city with the satellite city, with more people choosing to live in the suburbs, the economy at the end of the city is gradually emerging, and the flow of people in the suburbs is further improved, which is conducive to the formation of secondary business districts in suburban counties.

B, the formation of underground business

With the increasing shortage of land brought by urban development, the area of commercial property is increasing. A three-dimensional commercial concept of "from point to line, from line to surface, from ground to underground" will be an inevitable trend of domestic commercial development, and the subway has played a powerful role in promoting the gathering of underground commercial passengers.

Since 2005, Chengdu has intensified the development of urban underground space resources. Champagne Plaza and Panda City Underground Mall were launched one after another, which changed the image of Chengdu Underground Mall. The reconstruction project of Tianfu Square based on transportation and underground commerce, and the golden night rain lotus in the underground commercial city with the theme of culture, sports and leisure will promote the development of underground shopping malls in Chengdu. At the same time, the subway construction will take subway traffic as the mainstream and develop into an underground commercial city that provides supporting services for the main industries in the CBD core area. At the same time, through reasonable planning, various large department stores, underground supermarkets, restaurants and entertainment places will be formed in the subway station where people are concentrated, and the subway business will be "open all day", which will form a "dislocation operation" with the ground economy and realize the docking with the ground economy.

2) Impact on the commercial housing market

Due to many reasons, the commercial housing market in Chengdu has been unbalanced in regional development, with better development in the south and west, and relatively backward in the east and north. The opening of the subway has shortened the distance of the whole city to a certain extent, greatly eased the traffic bottleneck problem, the urban layout of Chengdu will be more balanced, and the eastern and northern parts of Chengdu will be greatly developed. The whole suburban market will be favored by consumers because of convenient transportation, good environment and low price, and the group characteristics will be more obvious.

Due to the appearance of subway, the layout of residential property in Chengdu will be more obvious. In the future, Chengdu Metro Property will form a southern new district group (radiation scope includes Zhou Xinyi-South New District and Huayang) and a phoenix mountain-Dafeng northern new district group (radiation scope includes Honghuayan, Phoenix Mountain, Tianhui Town and Dafeng, etc.) near Huayang Line 1. ). A group of Honghe-Shiling East New District, Guanghua-Jinsha District and a high-end river view residential area will be formed along Jinjiang around Line 2. At the same time, the second-hand housing market along the subway will be stimulated. Guanghua Village, Huaxi Dam, Rome City, Lijiatuo, the south side of Inner Ring Road and other subway buildings built after 1990s will become hot spots in regional transactions.

At present, there are 36 commercial houses and houses along 1 and Line 2 in the market, including 20 buildings along 1 and 6 buildings along 1 Line 2. The distribution areas are mainly concentrated in Zhou Xinyi-Huayang Liangjiasi section (9 buildings) and North Railway Station-Honghuayan section (4 buildings) of1Line. In terms of property form, ordinary apartment buildings, suburban buildings and second-hand houses facing the working class are most affected by the subway, with obvious appreciation potential, while high-end villa products are relatively less affected.

3) Impact on office property

There has been a big gap between supply and demand, unbalanced supply structure and other problems in Chengdu office property, and the construction of Chengdu subway will improve the overall investment environment in Chengdu and attract more office buildings and institutions to settle in. Because people's working hours are shortened, the subway will also become a gathering place for all kinds of high-grade office buildings, and the rental rate and sale rate of office buildings along the subway will be greatly improved. Generally, the gathering place of office property will be formed in several major areas, such as Tianfu Square-Rennan Road, Rome City and Hi-tech Zone Incubation Park.

Generally speaking, there are only four office buildings for sale near 1 and Line 2 1, all of which are high-grade. Located in Tianfu Square and the radiation circle of Rome, Platinum Age, Bitong School and Tianfu Center supply a large amount of office properties, which are well sold due to favorable factors such as location and subway, and the office position of Tianfu Square Center will be further strengthened. Roman business circle has once again become a hot spot for commercial and office property gathering, and a series of office property gathering places represented by Fengde International Plaza, a high-grade office property currently on sale, will be formed along the south of the city. At the same time, some companies with higher requirements for the environment will also gather around the Third Ring Road along the subway, centering on the high-tech zone incubator.

4) Impact on the land market

At present, the degree of land development and price in Chengdu are quite different. The land in the west and south was developed earlier and the price was higher, while the land in the north and east was always in stock and developed later. The construction of Chengdu Metro will alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand caused by the scarcity of urban land, weaken the disadvantages of real estate outside the Third Ring Road and the outer suburbs, and accelerate the appreciation of land supply and prices along the line. This year, affected by the subway construction, 7 of the 10 plots supplied by the urban area in June 5438+February were concentrated near 1 and No.2, and the land transaction price was higher than other lands in the region.

The land market in the north of the city has been relatively deserted. Before the Chengdu subway project was initially approved by the National Development and Reform Commission in August this year, the land located in the Sima Bridge area around the North Third Section of the Second Ring Road and the 1 line was auctioned because there were insufficient bidders or no one responded. However, after August, the land launched in the same region has become the object of competition for developers, and the auction price has reached more than 2 million yuan/mu, much higher than the land in the same region and the land in the north of the city. After the East Sub-center and its radiation area put forward the slogan of "Middle-class Chengdu", due to the smooth subway in the future, the property appreciation potential is obvious, the land is very popular, and the price has been rising all the way, reaching 2.55 million yuan/mu; At the same time, in the auction of Dongjie 1 1 plot, the price reached 7.34 million yuan/mu, which is the highest land auction in the region, and there is no lack of driving effect of the construction of Line 2 here. In addition, the traffic problems that have been restricting the development of suburban real estate industry have been solved, and the suburban land to be taken by subway will also be doubled in value, and the shortening of time distance will narrow the regional differences in land value.

2. The impact of subways in other cities in China on the real estate industry.

Beijing: subway changes the concept of buying a house

Before the formation of a convenient subway transportation network, the biggest trouble for Beijingers to buy a house was the dilemma of convenient commuting and moderate housing prices. The first consideration for most people to buy a house is the distance from the workplace, but the high housing prices in the core area make most people flinch. Now the underground traffic with good accessibility not only broadens the choice of buyers, but also eliminates the trouble of traffic jam during peak hours. The survey shows that 80% of Beijing white-collar workers take the lead in considering whether to get close to the subway when buying a house.

However, it is difficult to really attract property buyers, especially those high-end customers who are faced with higher prices, only by relying on such favorable conditions as convenient transportation. At present, most buildings along the Beijing subway rely on existing schools, hospitals, banks, commercial centers and other related facilities. The "subway concept" introduced by developers in marketing not only includes transportation, but also has more and more extensive connotations.

Shanghai: House prices rose when the subway passed.

Many subway buyers not only value the convenience of traveling near the subway, but also pay great attention to the great potential of property appreciation. The subway is like a "gold bar" in real estate development, and the property price rises when it passes. The price difference between residential property and non-residential property along the subway is between 25% and 30%.

On the other hand, the trend of Shanghai's real estate is also closely linked with rail transit: when the subway 1 line was opened to traffic, the real estate along Meilong and Xinzhuang sold well, forming an independent plate; The opening of Metro Line 2 has rapidly promoted Century Park, Longyang Road, Zhangjiang and other areas, becoming a hot spot for buying houses; The opening of the Pearl Line has benefited jiangwan town and Huangxing Greenland, improved the transportation convenience and attracted a large number of residents in the central city.

Guangzhou: the development mode of subway traction business

The value enhancement brought by the subway is not only reflected in residential property, but also in commercial property and office property. The formation of Tianhe Road Business Circle, the first business circle in China, and the success of Tianhe City directly benefited from the opening of Metro Line 1 to a great extent. Statistics show that at present, the supply of commercial properties along the 1 line alone has reached 540,000 square meters, and the rent of shops near the subway entrance has increased by 40% compared with the past. At present, 70% of Tianhe City's passenger flow comes from consumers and tourists in the Pearl River Delta region. Most of these consumers come to Tianhe City by changing to the subway.

Due to the staggered radiation of Guangzhou Metro 1 and Line 2, Guangzhou business circle has expanded from Beijing Road and Shangxiajiu Road to Tianhe City, Nonglinxia Road, Beijing Road, Shangxiajiu Road, China Plaza and Jiangnan West Road. Among them, Jiangnan Avenue Business Circle, Station Baima Business Circle and China Plaza Business Circle have become the most popular places for businesses.

Nanjing: The huge stock weakens the subway effect.

Since the trial operation of Nanjing Metro 1 Line began in May last year, the subway property has become a big winner. There are more than 60 buildings in Nanjing that can take the subway concept. In the general downturn of Nanjing property market during the New Deal oscillation period, the subway property has shown strong appreciation potential before the opening of the subway. The houses near the subway station are at least higher than those near the subway station in 500 yuan.

Since the opening of Nanjing Metro 1 Line, Hexi Olympic Sports Plate has been most affected. During the period from the opening of the subway to the tenth National Games, the Hexi property market was very lively and sold well. However, after this situation lasted for a month, the price dropped, mainly because the radiation effect of the subway on the surrounding buildings of the Olympic Sports Center has not been fully highlighted, because this appreciation process has been submerged and weakened by the large-capacity stock in Hexi. On the other hand, the concepts of the 10th National Games and the subway are really good news for the Olympic sports department, but their positive effects have been amplified, resulting in high real estate prices. The phenomenon of falling plate prices should be a manifestation of the return to rationality of subway property.

MTR real estate brings huge profits to MTRC.

Hong Kong Metro is one of the few profitable subway companies in the world, which mainly benefits from the scale effect produced by advanced facilities and the financing and operation of the company according to the rules of market economy. In addition, Hong Kong MTR Corporation makes full use of the advantages of real estate appreciation along the subway to operate subway properties and create huge profits.

The management mode of subway property in Hong Kong is the simultaneous development of underground station hall and upper cover. First, apply to the government for the development right of the property above the station, and then seek partners to pay the land cost with the developer's funds to build large-scale houses, office buildings and shopping malls. The profit from selling or renting the property will be shared by MTRC and the developer. According to the value of 65438+/kloc-0 at the end of 1999, the total investment property owned by MTRC reached 8.9 billion yuan, and the rental and management income of subway property in199 was 7.552 billion yuan, which made considerable profits.

Enlightenment of urban subway property development to Chengdu;

With the improvement of traffic conditions, the property market along the Third Ring Road and the suburbs will be more active, and the urban layout of the whole urban area will change. The high cost performance of commercial housing in suburban counties will obviously divert urban residents;

Although Chengdu Metro is in the stage of breaking ground, its value-added effect on properties along the line has been reflected. At present, the sales prices of the buildings for sale along Chengdu 1 and No.2 subways are 6%-9% higher than those under the same conditions, and 25%-30% lower than those in mature subway cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. I believe that with the development of subway construction, its value-added effect on surrounding properties will become more and more obvious;

The subway has a great influence on business, and the business pattern of the city will change greatly. Many new business districts will emerge around the subway station, and the rise of underground commerce also benefits from the gathering of passengers by subway.

It is still unknown how much the subway will affect the lives of Chengdu citizens and how many people will choose the subway to travel. A series of problems remain to be solved, such as whether the subway can change Chengdu people's habit of riding bicycles and taking public transportation, how to show its advantages in rail transit with convenient ground transportation, and how to make more people accept relatively expensive fares, which will inevitably have an impact on the development of Chengdu subway property.

Third, Chengdu subway development problems

The experience of many cities shows that the subway operation itself cannot be profitable, and it relies more on the appreciation of the surrounding property and land value along the subway to make up for the loss of subway operation. Chengdu subway construction brings good news to the real estate industry, but at the same time, we can't exaggerate this influence too much. Because the development of Chengdu subway property and subway economy will still face many problems.

1. The influence of recent subway planning on its development

The circular traffic organization has not yet been formed, and the accessibility and influence of the subway are limited, which will directly affect the future operating income.

At present, only lines 1 and 2 have been approved for Chengdu metro line, and 1 and 2 form a big cross sign in Chengdu city, which is not in line with the current circular layout of Chengdu city. Although the planned Line 7 runs in a circular way, the specific introduction scheme and construction completion time are still unknown, which has affected people's travel on the traffic ring road with large traffic flow to some extent. Although the intersection line 1 and 2 are two main axes, they are only attractive to people along the line and its radiation area, while the southwest and northeast directions far away from the two lines are less affected, which directly affects the passenger flow of the subway and is not conducive to the overall development of Chengdu.

2. The influence of Chengdu's special consumption pattern on the subway.

Chengdu's consumption pattern determines that the subway development in Chengdu is different from other cities. Chengdu's consumption is low, the city scope is not large enough, and there are more bicycles and private cars. At the same time, the urban middle class is the main passenger flow of the subway. However, the middle class of Chengdu subway is not big enough at present, and its corresponding subway price tolerance will inevitably decline due to various factors. According to the current preliminary planning, the first phase of 1 line is 65438+. Therefore, if the price is too high, the attractiveness of the subway will decline, and the effect on the surrounding property and land value is not obvious; Moreover, too low is not conducive to the operation of the whole subway, the government has a heavy burden, and the later management is difficult, forming a vicious circle, which is also not conducive to the development of the surrounding real estate industry; Secondly, although the subway connects the main urban area with several satellite cities, more people are willing to live in the urban area with convenient life because of people's inherent consumption psychology, and the construction of the subway may not vigorously promote the development of the suburban real estate market.

3. The negative impact of the subway itself on the real estate industry.

The property located around the entrance and exit of the urban subway may also be disturbed by the surrounding living environment, which may disrupt the tranquility of the original buildings along the line and pollute the living environment, and will not bring about the soaring price of the surrounding property and the increase in transaction volume as expected. As for the underground economy, it may be due to factors such as poor air circulation, large flow of people, loud noise and poor sanitary environment, which lead to poor overall business atmosphere of the underground economy and great difficulty in subway property management.

Fourthly, suggestions on the development of Chengdu subway.

According to the experience of subway development and operation in other cities, the current subway operation in cities is basically unprofitable, and Chengdu is no exception. However, in Chengdu, a city with low consumption level and moderate population mobility, how to minimize operating losses and achieve the original intention of subway planning can be considered from several aspects.

1, flexible charging enhances the attractiveness of the subway

First of all, in terms of charging methods, if the 0.5 yuan per kilometer is calculated according to the current forecast, the attraction of the subway is obviously very small compared with other public * * * systems, but different charging methods can be adopted for different lines, and the main line and general lines can be charged by pass or interval system, which will help to enhance the attraction of the subway.

2. Reasonable and effective use of land and property along the route.

In order to avoid government financial burden and management difficulties, we can learn from Hong Kong's experience. The MTR operating company can cooperate with the government to obtain the right to operate the land and underground properties along the line, but it is subject to government supervision, seeking developers to develop a large number of residential, commercial and office properties by means of shares or public issuance of bonds, raising funds, and recovering funds by using the appreciation of land and properties along the line to achieve profitability.

3. Combine tourism resources and property to create a unique subway business model.

Because Chengdu and its suburbs are rich in tourism resources, the appearance of subway not only shortens the spatial distance of tourism resources, but also rationally builds properties and resources along the above-ground and underground subways. Combining subway management with tourism development, it eliminates the concept that subway is just a means of transportation, integrates into Chengdu's leisure culture, and rationally digs and develops it, making subway not only a part of Chengdu citizens' life, but also attracts a large number of tourists to visit. Creating a special subway business model in the form of injecting Chengdu's inherent culture not only makes up for the loss caused by the unprofitable subway itself, but also greatly enhances the image and attraction of Chengdu subway.

In a word, the construction of Chengdu subway is a historic change in Chengdu's urban development, and it also plays a decisive role in the development of the real estate industry under various intertwined factors. The future Chengdu real estate market will break the existing layout, and take the subway development as an opportunity to enter a new round of game.

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