In recent years, major provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions have built or are building a number of theme park projects. Some theme park projects have a total investment of more than 1000 billion yuan, and even claim to be1000 billion yuan, covering an area of thousands of acres, and some exceed 10,000 acres. But the development of large and medium-sized theme parks is not suitable for all cities.

* This article is taken from Mr. Liang Zengxian's article "Study on Suitability Evaluation of China Urban Development Theme Parks" (Theme Park Innovation Frontier -20 19 China Theme Park Research Institute's Theory and Practice Collection).

With the rapid development of China's economy, the population keeps gathering in cities, and many cities are facing the shortage of the total amount and structure of leisure and entertainment space. Developing theme parks has become an important choice for many cities to meet the daily leisure and entertainment needs of urban residents. However, theme parks are different from ordinary leisure and entertainment projects or tourism projects, and their development and management difficulties may be the highest among similar scenic spots. Theme parks have a large investment scale and cover a wide area, mainly urban land. The potential market size has high requirements for the permanent population and floating population (including tourists) within two hours, so the threshold requirements are put forward for the cities they rely on (Liang Zengxian and Bao Jigang, 20 12, 2014; Liang Zengxian and Dong Guanzhi, 20 1 1). Although there are contemporary theme parks at the community level, the city level, the regional level and the destination level, it is possible to invest from tens of millions to tens of billions (Liang Zengxian, 2016; Clave, 2007), but the development of large and medium-sized theme parks is not suitable for all cities.

Based on the existing theories and the development experience of theme parks in China, this paper will build a suitability evaluation model for urban development theme parks and evaluate the suitability of major cities in China.

Literature Review and Model Construction

1. Literature Review

The research on the relationship between cities and theme parks has a long history. Early scholars mainly chose the appropriate location and layout of cities and plots from the perspective of theme parks. Bao Jigang (1994) pointed out that the factors affecting the location layout of large-scale theme parks include city image perception, suitable location, industrial agglomeration and dispersion, and suitable location includes macro location (city selection) and micro location (city positioning). Subsequently, Bao Jigang (1997) further improved the development experience of large-scale theme parks in China, and put forward the tourist market and traffic conditions, the level of regional economic development, the perceived image of urban tourism, spatial agglomeration and competition, and the behavior of decision makers, thus constructing a system of influencing factors for the development of large-scale theme parks, which is divided into subjective factors and objective factors, and the objective factors are divided into two necessary conditions and two restrictive conditions. Among them, the necessary conditions are tourism market, traffic conditions and regional economic development level, which are related to the scale of tourism market, infrastructure conditions, investment ability and tourist consumption level. As a theme park characterized by high investment and high tickets, it is impossible to succeed without either of these two conditions.

On the basis of the above-mentioned influencing factor system, Liang, Yu Ruyi and Wang Wei (20 16) constructed a three-level index system containing 16 factors, involving population factors, economic factors, traffic conditions and tourism market factors. The index was determined by AHP and entropy weight method, and the suitability of building theme parks in 33 major large and medium-sized cities in China was calculated. Great progress has been made in this work, but there are still several problems:

First, only the city rankings are given, so which top cities are suitable for developing theme parks? Is Shijiazhuang ranking 12 more suitable than Nanchang ranking 20? Obviously, it's a bit unrealistic. After all, Wanda Paradise has opened in Nanchang. Although the performance of Nanchang Wanda Paradise was not as good as expected, it was done first after all.

Secondly, the cities selected by the model are mainly regional central cities. However, in order to save land costs, many theme parks sometimes choose second-and third-tier cities within 2 hours' drive from the same market location, such as Changzhou in Jiangsu and Wuhu in Anhui.

Thirdly, the location of theme parks has two levels: macro and micro, and the scale of competition and cooperation may be different. It is not so accurate to measure different factors at the same level with a single model.

According to the scale and market attraction, theme parks are generally divided into destination level, regional level, city level and community level (Clave, 2007). Different levels of theme parks have different requirements for tourists because of different development scales. The number of tourists in regional theme parks is between 2 million and 3 million. Of course, it depends on the specific investment scale. As some old parks have completed depreciation and amortization, their threshold capacity may be lower than 6,543,800 person-times. As the global destination theme parks are mainly Disney and Universal Studios, their locations outside the United States are located in global cities, such as Singapore, Tokyo and Paris, as well as Shanghai and Hongkong in China. Therefore, this paper only studies the location of large and medium-sized theme parks at regional level and urban level.

2. Measurement of potential market size

Happy Valley Series and Guangzhou Chimelong Happy World are typical regional theme parks. The investment scale of Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Wuhan and other theme parks is basically between 65.438+700-250 million yuan, and the larger the investment scale (Bao Jigang, 2065.438+0.5). Considering that OCT Group has accumulated considerable experience in controlling development costs, cash investment and construction costs have also increased accordingly, it will cost about 3 billion yuan to invest in a theme park similar to Happy Valley at present. According to Bao Jigang's model (Bao Jigang, 20 15), it is not difficult to draw a conclusion that according to the current standard ticket prices of parks such as Happy Valley, Fangte and Changlong, with the investment of 3 billion yuan, the threshold tourists of regional theme parks must reach at least 2.8 million, in order to achieve breakeven.

If a regional theme park needs 2.8 million people to make ends meet, how many people does a city need? Or how many people do you need within a 2-hour drive around this regional theme park? This involves the problem of permeability. Market penetration refers to the proportion of users (owners) of a theme park brand (or category, or sub-brand) in the overall market of regional theme parks. It can also be directly understood as user penetration or consumer share, which is the sum of a brand's position in the market and the result of many years. Market penetration rate is used to measure the tendency of groups in existing market segments to visit a certain scenic spot, which is generally expressed as the proportion of total passenger flow to the overall size of the relevant market. The market penetration rate multiplied by the number of qualified market people in each existing market range is the predicted potential passenger flow (ancient poem rhyme, 20 13).

Theme parks in the United States are highly dependent on the primary market, but there is a significant difference in the penetration rate between parks, and the market penetration rate ranges from 13.4% to nearly 60% (Wang Gang, 2009). The rhyme of ancient poems divides the market in shenzhen happy valley into two levels: the primary market, that is, the local residents' market, and the secondary market, that is, the market outside the city, so as to calculate the market penetration rate. It is estimated that by 20 18, the penetration rate of the primary market in shenzhen happy valley should be around 25%, while the penetration rate of the whole market (primary and secondary) should be around 30% (ancient poetry rhyme, 20 13). It is worth noting that because there are no natural scenery and historical sites in Shenzhen, theme parks are the main entertainment projects in the city, and their market penetration rate should be higher than other cities in China. In other words, the market penetration rate of 30% should be considered relatively high in China. In other cities with rich historical sites, rich natural tourism resources and more choices for urban leisure and entertainment, the market penetration rate of theme parks will not be higher than that of Happy Valley.

Based on the comprehensive analysis of the threshold tourist volume and penetration rate, the threshold tourist volume of 2.8 million requires that the market population in the central city should reach more than 9 million within two hours, and the daily average ticket price can be as high as 200 yuan. Of course, this is only a rough estimate, which provides a basic reference line for the establishment of the model.

3. Establishment of evaluation model

According to the previous analysis, combined with the construction standard of regional theme parks proposed by scholars (Clave, 2007), the urban area requirements of regional theme parks need to meet the following basic requirements:

(1) About 9 million people within 2 hours' drive [about 2.8 million tourists/30% penetration rate of 9 million people];

(2) The economy in the region is relatively developed (ensuring good and sustainable repeated purchasing power);

(3) There are large-scale regional tourists (2 hours away from the market, accounting for about10% ~ 30% of the theme park tourists);

(4) Excellent regional traffic conditions (especially the accessibility of large-scale public transportation);

(5) Suitable climatic conditions (theme parks have long business hours and few rainy days all year round).

However, the above factors are both macro-level, meso-level and micro-level, and some factors also involve macro-level and micro-level, such as traffic conditions. The construction of the urban positioning model of regional theme parks can be divided into three levels: macro-positioning, meso-positioning and micro-positioning. According to specific indicators and data, the market positioning of regional theme parks can be gradually measured and evaluated to determine the appropriate positioning, which is mainly divided into three levels and steps:

Macro site selection: that is, determine the area with a central city of a certain region as the origin and around 2 hours' drive. Guangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing, Xi, Chengdu and Wuhan are the central cities. Of course, the two-hour driving radius of some regional central cities may overlap, such as Guangzhou and Shenzhen, Tianjin and Beijing, Wuxi and Suzhou. Whether there is overlap or not, the calculation method is the same.

Mesoscale site selection: refers to the selection of specific cities, usually prefecture-level cities, within the regional scope determined by macro site selection, and some developed areas can choose county-level cities (or counties). For example, cities within 2 hours' drive from Guangzhou should evaluate Guangzhou, Dongguan, Shenzhen, Qingyuan, Zhongshan and Zhuhai. Many successful theme parks do not necessarily choose the big cities with the most developed local economy, but the surrounding medium-sized cities.

Micro-site selection: it refers to choosing the plots suitable for the development of theme parks in the cities determined by the middle site selection, which is a very specific site selection. For example, to develop a theme park in Guangzhou, which plot should I choose, Tianhe District, Panyu District or Haizhu District? There are many factors to consider in micro-selection. In fact, many failed theme parks have no problems in macro-site selection and medium-site selection, that is, the micro-site selection is improper, which leads to the actual number of tourists being lower than expected after the opening of the park.

Selection of indicators and data collection

Through two rounds of expert scoring, the main influencing factors and their weights at all levels of the evaluation model are determined. In the first round, the research group listed a series of influencing factors according to the existing research and the experience of researchers, and divided them according to the degree of influence. Some factors may appear at multiple levels at the same time. The research team will send the list of influencing factors to the experts, who will score according to the Richter scale 5. Finally, according to the four or five factors that have the greatest influence, it is the influencing factors at this level. In the second round of expert consultation, the research group expanded the sample of interviewed experts, listed the factors at all levels determined in the last round, and asked the experts for their weights. Finally, the model weight is obtained by rounding the average weight given by experts.

1. Macro site selection

The macro-location of regional theme parks mainly considers four evaluation factors: climatic conditions, regional population size, regional economic level and regional tourism development level. If the macro optimal site selection condition is 100, then the proportion of evaluation factors is: macro site selection (100) climatic conditions (20) regional population size (30) regional economic level (30) regional tourism development (20). Among them, climatic conditions mainly refer to temperature conditions and rainy days, and the average temperature of each month is suitable for temperature months. Generally, the colder the temperature, the less suitable it is, because the shorter the business hours in a year, the less rainy days in the whole year, the better; The regional population size includes regional permanent population and floating population, which is reported according to the data of the sixth population census. In contrast, the size of the resident population is more important. The regional economic level is measured by regional GDP, per capita GDP and the proportion of tertiary industry, and the higher the value, the better; The development of regional tourism is measured by the number of regional tourists (times) and tourism income, in which the number of regional tourists is the number of tourists announced by cities, not the number of overnight tourists counted by hotels.

2. Mesoscopic site selection

The site selection of regional theme parks mainly considers four evaluation factors: urban traffic conditions, urban tourism development, competition and cooperation and surrounding facilities. If the macro-optimal site selection condition is 100, then the proportion of evaluation factors is: medium site selection (100), traffic conditions (40), urban tourism development (20), competition and cooperation (30) and surrounding facilities (10). Among them, the traffic conditions need to evaluate the external traffic and internal traffic from the city to the regional central city and surrounding cities at the same time, which is the key to the middle-level site selection. Must be able to ensure the smooth and convenient arrival of large passenger flow, especially the public transport system leading to regional central cities.

The development of urban tourism includes the number of overnight receptions (non-tourists), the number of star-rated hotels, the occupancy rate of star-rated hotels and the attraction of urban tourism, among which the attraction of urban tourism is judged by expert scoring method:

(1) Whether the city is the main direction of regional tourism flow;

(2) Whether the city is a rich area of regional tourism resources; Whether the city tourism image is good;

(3) Whether the city has good tourism consumption habits (including at night).

At the same time, we should consider the competition between the city and the regional cities (tourist attractions and theme parks) within 2 hours' drive. One of the expert scoring items of competitive relationship is the individual difference factor used to adjust the middle-level site selection, which is subjectively judged by experts according to the following factors:

(1) Competing or cooperating with existing theme parks in the city;

(2) Whether the city can borrow (the surrounding core scenic spots);

(3) Whether the city has a good real market for theme parks;

(4) Whether there are other scenic spots in the city that complement the theme park;

(5) Whether the city has an industrial chain related to theme parks;

(6) Whether there are hotels and catering brands matching the theme park in the city.

The surrounding facilities are also evaluated by experts, and the qualitative criteria are as follows:

(1) The more developed the city business circle, the more obvious the post-industrial characteristics of the city, and the more suitable the theme park layout;

(2) The more developed the urban industry, the stronger the industrial image, and the less suitable for layout;

(3) The more urban residential areas, especially the more upscale residential areas, the more suitable.

3. Micro-positioning

The micro-site selection of regional theme parks involves many individual plot factors. The direction, speed, flow and fluid (social and demographic structure) of tourism in specific cities are different, so it is not easy to evaluate quantitatively. For specific plots, a feasibility study is needed. The specific requirements are as follows:

(1) Market research: potential market size and consumption capacity, direction, flow, speed and liquidity of existing tourism flows, consumption habits and preferences of the target market, and consumption behavior laws of the target market (travel scope, travel combination, travel mode, etc.). );

(2) Land parcel research: land parcel climate analysis, land parcel topography, water system, surrounding communities, surrounding businesses, surrounding industrial development, etc.

(3) Traffic analysis: public traffic conditions, external traffic conditions, traffic services, parking lot planning, rail transit, etc.

(4) Tourism location analysis: the competition and cooperation between surrounding tourist attractions and routes, and the analysis of surrounding facilities.

Results and discussion

According to the macro-site selection index system and the meso-site selection index system of regional theme parks, evaluate the adaptability of theme parks in major cities in China, and follow the scoring rules and standards:

(1) The two grades are scored independently and do not affect each other. If the macro site selection score is high, it will not be converted into the intermediate site selection score;

(2) The upper layer determines the lower layer. If the macro site selection is not ideal, there is no need to continue the meso and micro site selection.

According to the calculation, the following results are obtained, as shown in table 1.

According to the table 1, a considerable number of regional theme parks have been developed in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other cities. Although these cities have good macro-regional scores, they still need to be cautious when choosing sites to develop regional theme parks. Therefore, the middle score is not necessarily higher than other second-and third-tier cities. The above scoring table is for reference only, and the following questions should be paid attention to when using it:

(1) The higher the macro site selection score, the larger the potential market scale of the central area, with a regional score of 75 or more, or multiple urban layouts can be selected. In other words, such an area can simultaneously develop multiple regional theme parks.

(2) The lower the macro site selection score, the less the potential market size or purchasing power of the central area. Try not to lay out the central area with a macro site selection score below 60, while cities with a high middle score (above 70) can consider laying out a municipal theme park with less investment, such as Ningbo, Dalian, Shijiazhuang and Changsha.

(3) For areas with a macro site selection score of 60-75, only the urban layout with the highest meso site selection score can be selected.

(4) Cities belonging to multiple central regions, even if the macro location score is low, can also consider the layout if the middle location score is high, such as Suzhou, Wuxi, Shanghai and other cities in central regions.

(5) For cities with low site selection scores (generally below 75 points), it is suggested to suspend investment or make small investments.

(6) It is not recommended to invest in regional theme parks in cities with macro site selection below 60 points and medium site selection below 60 points. Some cities may consider building municipal theme parks.

According to the principle of choosing the city with the highest score in the middle of the same macro center area, the city with the second lowest score will automatically descend to the next gradient. For example, Shaoxing should have been ranked in the fourth gradient according to the score, but as Hangzhou is the first city in the region, Shaoxing will automatically drop to the fifth gradient, so we can evaluate whether the above cities are suitable for the development of theme parks and what level of theme parks they are suitable for, as shown in Table 2.

Please note that there are still many exceptions to the above analysis and assessment, such as:

(1) China's cities are in rapid development, and the related factors are changing rapidly. Although some cities may not be suitable now, they may reach the standard of developing regional theme parks in the next few years.

(2) This evaluation only aims at macro and meso site selection, and does not evaluate micro site selection. In specific applications, special micro-positioning should be paid attention to. For example, some cities don't score high on macro and meso site selection, but one of their plots may get a better location because it is close to the regional market, which is suitable for developing theme parks.

(3) The theme parks that can attract large-scale special trips at the destination level are not considered in this assessment. As mentioned above, the location model of destination theme park is not completely applicable to this model. After all, the destination theme park has a considerable proportion of the medium and long-distance special tour market, and does not depend entirely on the regional market.

Generally speaking, with the development of China's economy and the acceleration of urbanization, the demand of urban residents for theme parks will continue to increase, and the number of cities that meet the location conditions for the development of theme parks will also increase, from the current first-tier cities to second-,third-and even some fourth-tier cities. This paper only provides a baseline for the current urban development of theme parks in China. Because different cities have different efforts to develop and support theme parks, the corresponding land acquisition costs, project construction costs, supporting construction costs, and even some later operating expenses are not necessarily borne by the parks, but the development costs are transferred to other subjects through some fiscal and taxation policies, investment incentives, transfer payments, and even state-owned enterprises' equity participation. On the surface, the development and operation of theme parks may be a light asset strategy. In this mode, because the depreciation of development cost is not considered, the requirements for cities suitable for developing theme parks are further reduced, the scope of cities suitable for development is expanded and the project is feasible, but the sustainable management of theme parks still lacks sufficient potential market.