It is predicted that by 2020, the market size of the VR market, including games, hardware, movies and theme parks, will be about $30 billion, of which the market size of VR games accounts for nearly 50%, followed by VR hardware and VR film and television content. Digi-Capital also predicted that by 2017, the VR market size will lead the AR market, but with technological progress, AR market size will far exceed the VR market in the future, to 2020 AR is expected to be able to reach a market size of 120 billion U.S. dollars.
From the perspective of conservative estimation, we believe that the desktop computer is the best external device for mainstream external VR helmets to meet the requirements of customer experience. China's sales of micro electronic computers reached 350 million units in 2014, with a growth rate of -0.21%. According to the sales share of desktops in previous years, assuming that the frequency of desktop users to replace new machines is 4 years, we estimate the domestic desktop ownership.
In 2015, the number of desktops was about 219 million units, taking into account the use of VR external helmets, excluding the number of commercial computers, the number of domestic desktops in 2015 was about 110 million units. Among the retained home desktops, we use a certain proportion to estimate the configuration, and arrive at the number of domestic home desktops that meet the configuration requirements of VR external headsets. We believe that this retention data can represent the real hardware environment of domestic consumption of VR external helmets (in addition to PS VR and other game consoles), and conservatively expect that in 2018, with the mainstream configuration of desktops to meet the standard and the price of VR helmets to go down, the domestic VR consumer market environment is gradually maturing, and the rapid development of VR games and other content products.